Hi everybody. The unusual sub tropical system in the Caribbean has a very low chance of development this morning. The water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support a tropical system, however, upper level winds are not favorable for development. In fact as the system moves to the North East, wind shear will increase and development will be less likely. Regardless of development, the system will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms today as it moves across the southern part of the state. This will give us some much needed rain today. You can see the latest models right here.
Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
ABNT20 KNHC 061158
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS…THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT…THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CUBA…THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT23 KNHC…AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
