Hi everybody. The tropics remain busy but for us, things are lokking good. At 11 PM, Ana is still struggling to stay alive and advisories on her may be dropped tomorrow. Claudette is just making landfall in North Florida. Bill is probaly the only entity that is getting stronger and at present poses no threat to Florida.

Bill looks impressive and has decent banding features. The outflow is good which means the system is venting. This venting will lead to some intesification over the next couple of days. Bill continues to be steered by a large pressure ridge. This ridge is expected to steer the cyclone on a west NW course the next few days. Thereafter, a large breach in the ridge is expected to allow the more northerly component that will allow the cyclone to move more to the north. This is the entity that has probably saved us.

The model runs have again shifted to the north and the forecast has followed suit. Even though sheer is low, the ocean temperatures are only marginally warm. This is helping to keep the storm from intensifying faster. After 24 hours, the ocean temps will increase and probably allow some faster intensification. This shold allow the cyclone to blow up into a major hurricane. At the end ogf the forecast period, wind sheer is agin forecast to increase and this may call for some weakening.

Where Bill will go at the end of the forecast period is not fully known but a course out to sea is not out of the question.

Model Runs for Bill http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html

Hurricane Central  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html