FXUS10 KWNH 100312
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1111 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008
VALID OCT 10/0000 UTC THRU OCT 13/1200 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION…
..SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST…
MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE
TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.
MODEL TRENDS…
..TROF/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST…
OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING GRADUALLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI-SAT…
LEADING TO A MODEST SEWD/EWD ADJUSTMENT OF THE MID LVL TROF AND
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW BY SUN. AT THE SFC THE 00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS
ARE SIMILAR. COMPARED TO YDAYS 00Z NAM… LATEST RUNS ARE FARTHER
N/NW WITH THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS DURING SAT INTO SUN.
..HURRICANE NORBERT…
THE NAM HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SFC
REFLECTION… WITH THE 00Z NAM TRENDING INCREASINGLY SWWD OF THE
18Z RUN BUT REMAINING NEWD OF THE 12Z/YDAYS 00Z RUNS. LIKEWISE
THE 18Z NAM WAS A NEWD OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER RUNS WITH THE
ASSOC MID LVL REFLECTION. DETAILS DIFFER BUT NAM RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF ONE OR MORE WEAK IMPULSES STREAMING
NEWD THRU NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
..SHRTWV CROSSING NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT-MON…
00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS OFFER SIMILAR SOLNS THRU F72 LATE SUN. AS OF
F60 EARLY SUN THESE RUNS DISPLAY SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLITUDE THAN
YDAYS 00Z NAM.
..FLOW CROSSING NEW ENGLAND FRI-SAT…
THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NWD WITH THE MID
LVL JET AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRI. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS AN
ABRUPT CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WITH TRAILING ENERGY INITIALLY NEAR
JAMES BAY… BRINGING A CONCENTRATED SHRTWV ACROSS NEW ENG ON SAT
IN CONTRAST TO A VERY SHEARED DEPICTION IN PRIOR RUNS. THESE
DIFFS ALOFT HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE SFC.
..CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST…
FROM F24 LATE FRI ONWARD THE 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LVL REFLECTION. ALSO AFTER
F24 THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS DISPLAY A NWD TREND AS THE FEATURE
RETROGRADES ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. RUN TO RUN DIFFS
AT THE SFC ARE BRIEF/MINOR.
..MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML…
RAUSCH
$$
