Hi everybody. We are now tracking tropical storm Fay. I apologize for the late update but I had computer calls to finish. Fay is looking mighty impressive on satellite and the ONLY thing limiting development is her interaction with land. The center of Fay is over Hispanola and since we do not have radar contact we do not see the exact location of it. Fay is moving steadily westward on the southern side of a high pressure ridge.
Outflow in all quadrants of the system is impressive. Most of the intensity guidance is showing the potential of a strong hurricane. This is especially true after it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to occur to allow Fay to move in a more NW direction while over Cuba. The timing of this weakness is crucial in determining when the storm will turn and how much. The latest model runs have shown a more westward shift from previous runs. If this trend continues I would expect also to see a west shift in the track. This would be great for us but VERY bad news for anybody in the northern Gulf.
Looking at all the info, I am inclined to think that the system will take the more westerly track and stay more off the west coast rather then running up the state. PLEASE bear in mind that this thinking could change. I always like to bring a ray of light when there is some to shed. The current forecast track is on the far eastern side of all the model guidance. I am somewhat surprised that the NHC did not shift the track more west in the 11 PM advisory. I am assuming this is out of sheer caution. Below you will find the links for the models and the forecast tracks:
