Hi everybody. A cold front is moving through the Louisiana area as of this writing and is heading towards Florida. Tornado watches have been issued for the northern part of the state. You can  clearly  see the front from New Orleans radar.

Hi everybody. A freeze watch has been issued for Tuesday night and Wednesday Morning. A widespread and long lasting freeze is expected Wednesday Morning.

FREEZE WATCH
Warning Issue Date:
Warning Expiration:

...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS ON THE WAY TONIGHT...
.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR TONIGHT.
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* EVENT...A WIDESPREAD LONG LASTING FREEZE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
* TIMING...BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WITH DAMAGE TO COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS AND VEGETATION IS POSSIBLE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This message has been generated from the office of

HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html .

Please visit our new garden site called HomeTownGarden.com. http://hometowngarden.com/

 

Hi everybody. In the 2011 hurricane season, it was mostly a non issue for the Sunshine State.  The season did bring us a couple of scares which included Irene but she had another area in her sights, the North East. For the sixth straight year, there were no landfalling hurricanes in Florida. That is actually some amazing numbers especially since we have had 19 storms this season.

Many people would not consider this year busy but in actuality, it was actually a busy season. Of the 19 storms, 7 became hurricanes and 3 became major storms of cat 3 or higher. This ties us with 2010, 1995 1nd 1887 for the third busiest on record. Included in the 19 storms was a system that moved between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. Originally, it was not classified as a tropical system but forecasters have looked at the data and have reclassified the storm as a tropical system and added it to the tally. It was not given an actual name.

Remember back in 1979 when David hit Florida? We were not  severely  impacted here in Central Florida for almost 25 years when Jeanne and Francis hit. It  could  be another 25 years before we see another hurricane or it might be in 2012.

A trough of low pressure in the Eastern United States steered most storms away before they were in line to hit Florida.

It is too early to tell if El Nino will kick in and make 2012 a quiet year. We will be watching closely as the year progresses.

For the latest in weather information, visit us at Home Town weather.

Hi everybody, for the 56th year, NORAD will be tracking the flight of Santa Clause on December 24th. Follow this link for the countdown.

Hi everybody! Today marks the end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Fortunately it was a mostly uneventful year with the exception of Irene that plowed up the east coast into New England causing mostly a flood event from the Carolinas north. The system left many without power and fortunately the upper level winds remained hostile enough to keep the system in check. Hurricane season again begins on June 1, 2012. You can still get all your local weather and radar at our site. At the following link, you can get your local weather anytime just by typing in your zip code. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Web_Forecasts.html

Hi everybody. I know we are almost out of the hurricane season (ends November 30) but we are looking at another invest. This system, invest 99, has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. The good news is that most of the models have the system moving towards the NE away from land. We will probably have one more named storm added to the list before the official season end. You can get the latest tracks and models right here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html . In addition, you can browse the tracks of past storms as well.

 

 

Hi everybody. Subtropical storm Sean is now approaching hurricane strength and is now considered a full tropical system. It may brush very close to Bermuda as it moves north and then northeast away from the US. Winds are now clocked at 65 MPH. You can full information on this system right here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html              BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011
400 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011

…SEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.7N 70.5W
ABOUT 420 MI…675 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SEAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY…FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF SEAN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED…AND SEAN
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL…SEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ON
BERMUDA.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY SEAN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA…CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

 

Hi everybody, invest 98 is now Subtropical storm Sean. Winds are now at 45 MPH. Sean continues to be stationary over very warn waters and further development is possible. Sean could become a full tropical storm or even a shallow hurricane before all is said and done. Sean will eventually be grabbed by a cold front and will be nudged north and then northeast out to sea. Bermuda may have to watch the track of this system. The main impact to the US will be heavy surf. For latest info, click here… http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS51 KBOX 301003
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
602 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ENFIELD                 41.97N  72.57W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            POWER LINES DOWN ON RTE 220 BETWEEN RTE 5 AND I-91 

0535 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH WINDSOR           41.82N  72.62W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS TOWN 

0537 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SIMSBURY                41.88N  72.81W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            POWER OUTAGES ACROSS TOWN 

0539 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEYDEN                  42.70N  72.62W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ENTIRE TOWN WITHOUT POWER 

0542 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH DEERFIELD         42.48N  72.61W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON MOUNTAIN ROAD 

0545 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LONGMEADOW              42.05N  72.57W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS TOWN 

0552 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST LONGMEADOW         42.07N  72.52W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE TOWN 

0554 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWINGTON               41.69N  72.73W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES 

0604 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MERRIMACK               42.87N  71.48W
10/29/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE LIMB DOWN ON WIRES ON AMHERST ROAD 

0605 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WORTHINGTON             42.42N  72.93W
10/29/2011  M11.3 INCH       HAMPSHIRE          MA   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            NWS COOP 

0613 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PELHAM                  42.40N  72.40W
10/29/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING RTE 202 

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHWICK               42.05N  72.77W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH CARS STUCK 

0627 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SUTTON                  42.15N  71.77W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON LACKEY DAM ROAD 

0635 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRANBY                  41.95N  72.78W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES DOWN ALL OVER TOWN 

0646 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ERVING                  42.60N  72.40W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON SOUTH CROSS ROAD 

0647 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTHAMPTON             42.33N  72.68W
10/29/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE AREA WITHOUT POWER AROUND 1-91 

0655 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRANVILLE               42.07N  72.87W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ENTIRE TOWN WITHOUT POWER 

0656 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DEERFIELD               42.55N  72.60W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING RTE 116 

0658 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST SPRINGFIELD        42.12N  72.65W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON BELMONT AVE 

0659 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FITCHBURG               42.59N  71.82W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALL OVER TOWN 

0710 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORFOLK                 42.12N  71.32W
10/29/2011                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE LIMB DOWN BLOCKING RTE 115 

0729 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TEWKSBURY               42.62N  71.23W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING PART OF SHAWSHEEN STREET 

0734 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MANCHESTER              41.78N  72.52W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN 

0740 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PALMER                  42.16N  72.32W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            MANY TREES DOWN 

0743 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OXFORD                  41.66N  70.91W
10/29/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            RTE 12 CLOSED TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS ROAD 

0749 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTFORD                42.58N  71.43W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN BLOCKING GROTON ROAD 

0753 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRANBY                  41.95N  72.78W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ENTIRE TOWN WITHOUT POWER 

0755 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHINGTON             41.60N  72.88W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            I-84 WEST NEAR EXIT 28 CLOSED DUE TO TREE DOWN 

0757 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHARON                  42.12N  71.18W
10/29/2011                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON CROSS ROAD 

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEOMINSTER              42.52N  71.77W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON TREE CAUSING FIRE ON PARK STREET. WIRES
            DOWN ON PROSPECT STREET 

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FITCHBURG               42.59N  71.82W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON HIGHLAND AVE 

0805 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STERLING                42.43N  71.75W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ACROSS RTE 140 ON THE PRINCESTON STERLING
            LINE 

0805 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON PALISADES STREET 

0808 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEOMINSTER              42.52N  71.77W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON ARLINGTON STREET 

0825 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ORANGE                  42.59N  72.30W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON WEST MAIN STREET 

0825 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BERNARDSTON             42.67N  72.55W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON RIVER STREET 

0837 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTHAMPTON             42.33N  72.68W
10/29/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ALONG WINSLOW AVENUE 

0840 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRAMINGHAM              42.31N  71.44W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON DPW TRUCK ON GREENLEAF CIRCLE 

0840 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ENFIELD                 41.97N  72.57W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ROUTE 220 CLOSED BETWEEN ROUTE 5 AND I-91 DUE TO POWER
            LINES DOWN 

0841 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTFORD                42.58N  71.43W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN CLOSING ROUTE 40 

0843 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PALMER                  42.16N  72.32W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING PINE STREET AT ROUTE 181 

0853 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MILFORD                 42.83N  71.66W
10/29/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON CAR WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED ON WEST STREET
            AND OSGOOD ROAD 

0910 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON INSTITUTE ROAD 

0939 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WOBURN                  42.49N  71.16W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ACROSS FOREST PARK ROAD 

0942 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTFORD                42.58N  71.43W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN WITH A DOZEN ROAD CLOSURES 

0946 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH READING           42.57N  71.07W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ACROSS MCINTYRE ROAD 

0949 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CLINTON                 42.42N  71.69W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON JEEP 

0954 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WILLIAMSBURG            42.40N  72.72W
10/29/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 9 

0954 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON              42.56N  71.17W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN AND POWER OUT ON
            INDUSTRIAL WAY 

0958 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HINGHAM                 42.24N  70.89W
10/29/2011                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON TOWER ROAD 

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG METHUEN                 42.72N  71.18W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE WITHIN THE TOWN 

1005 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH READING           42.57N  71.07W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES DOWN ON CENTER STREET ... ORCHARD DRIVE ... AND
            MOUNT VERNON STREET TO LYNN STREET TO HAVERHILL STREET 

1040 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/29/2011  M61 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

1154 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BEVERLY                 42.56N  70.84W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON VIRGINIA AVENUE 

1156 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNNFIELD               42.54N  71.04W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN CRUSHING 2 CARS ON CRESCENT AVENUE 

1156 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GEORGETOWN              42.73N  70.98W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 133 BEFORE THE I-95 EXIT 

1202 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PLAINVILLE              41.68N  70.96W
10/30/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TWO TREES DOWN ON TAUNTON STREET 

1208 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PEABODY                 42.53N  70.97W
10/30/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON ABBOTT STREET 

1210 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH READING           42.57N  71.07W
10/30/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON MAPLE ROAD 

1211 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH KINGSTOWN         41.51N  71.45W
10/30/2011                   WASHINGTON         RI   AMATEUR RADIO   

            *** 1 INJ *** TREE DOWN INTO A HOUSE ON SACHEM ROAD 

1212 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SANDWICH                41.76N  70.49W
10/30/2011  M59 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

1235 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BEVERLY                 42.56N  70.84W
10/30/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON CABOT STREET 

1235 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JAMAICA PLAIN           42.30N  71.12W
10/30/2011                   SUFFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN CLOSING THE ARBORWAY 

1240 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MERRIMACK               42.87N  71.48W
10/30/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   AMATEUR RADIO   

            *** 1 INJ *** TREE DOWN ON PICKUP TRUCK ON TREE POND
            ROAD 

1248 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HAVERHILL               42.78N  71.09W
10/30/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WARD HILL CONNECTOR CLOSED BETWEEN I-495 AND ROUTE 125
            DUE TO TREES DOWN 

0104 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ERVING                  42.60N  72.40W
10/30/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ROUTE 2 CLOSED FROM THE CENTER OF TOWN DUE TO TREES
            DOWN OVER THE ROADWAY 

0146 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDDLETOWN              41.55N  71.29W
10/30/2011                   NEWPORT            RI   AMATEUR RADIO   

            POWER POLE DOWN ON AQUIDNECK ISLAND 

0213 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/30/2011  M67 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

0213 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ANDOVER                 42.66N  71.14W
10/30/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON GREENWOOD FROM BEACON STREET 

0214 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    SANDWICH                41.76N  70.50W
10/30/2011                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            OLD MAIN STREET UNDER 18 TO 24 INCHES OF WATER DUE TO
            COASTAL FLOODING OVER A SMALL SEAWALL ... ROAD
            IMPASSABLE 

0220 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NASHUA                  42.75N  71.49W
10/30/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 3 NEAR EXIT 2 BLOCKING LANE 

0220 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SANDWICH                41.76N  70.49W
10/30/2011  M62 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

0225 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH BROOKFIELD        42.27N  72.08W
10/30/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            ROUTES 67 AND 148 CLOSED DUE TO TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN 

0227 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      41.41N  70.62W
10/30/2011  M43 MPH          DUKES              MA   ASOS            

            AIRPORT 

0232 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    SCITUATE                42.19N  70.73W
10/30/2011                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            COLE PARKWAY PARTIALLY FLOODING FROM OCEAN COASTAL
            FLOODING 

0235 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    SCITUATE                42.19N  70.73W
10/30/2011                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LIGHTHOUSE ROAD FLOODED FROM OCEAN ... ROCKS FROM
            SEAWALL WASHING INTO ADJACENT PARKING LOT 

0239 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 NE HYANNIS            41.67N  70.27W
10/30/2011  M43 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   ASOS            

            AIRPORT 

0239 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
10/30/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN INTO A HOUSE ... LOCATION UNKNOWN 

0253 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SANDWICH                41.76N  70.50W
10/30/2011                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON OLD COUNTY ROAD 

0302 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SANDWICH                41.76N  70.50W
10/30/2011                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON QUAKER MEETING HOUSE ROAD CLOSING OFF HALF
            THE ROAD 

0317 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE HYANNIS            41.67N  70.27W
10/30/2011  M60 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   ASOS            

            AIRPORT 

0327 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE NANTUCKET         41.26N  70.07W
10/30/2011  M68 MPH          NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS            

            AIRPORT 

0330 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 ESE NANTUCKET         41.26N  70.07W
10/30/2011  M53 MPH          NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS            

            AIRPORT 

0339 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      41.41N  70.62W
10/30/2011  M59 MPH          DUKES              MA   ASOS            

            AIRPORT 

0351 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DENNIS                  41.73N  70.20W
10/30/2011                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            PINE TREE DOWN ON SETUCKET ROAD EAST OF ROUTE 134 

0353 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/30/2011  M66 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

0400 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEVERETT                42.45N  72.50W
10/30/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            AMTRAK TRAIN STOPPED DUE TO TREES ON THE TRACK ...
            PASSENGERS STRANDED WITH AN ADDITIONAL TREE FALLING ON
            THE TRAIN AS IT WAS STOPPED 

0411 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/30/2011  M69 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

&&

$$

SIPPRELL

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS51 KOKX 300905
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
503 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STAMFORD                41.02N  73.56W
10/29/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. POWER LINES
            ALSO DOWN. 

0143 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WHITE PLAINS            41.02N  73.76W
10/29/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN ON ANDERSON HILL ROAD. ROAD
            PARTIALLY BLOCKED. 

0149 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH ARLINGTON         40.79N  74.13W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ON RIDGE ROAD AND CRYSTAL STREET 

0150 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH ARLINGTON         40.79N  74.13W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON MORGAN PLACE 

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON                40.74N  74.15W
10/29/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            TREE BRANCH ON CARS ON GRANT AVENUE. ROAD CLOSED.
            REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. 

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG UNION                   40.70N  74.27W
10/29/2011                   UNION              NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ACROSS ROUTE 22 EAST AT GARDEN STATE
            PARKWAY. 

0208 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON                40.74N  74.15W
10/29/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN ON CLEVELAND AVENUE. 

0215 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PARK RIDGE              41.04N  74.04W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND POPPING TRANSFORMER 

0235 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PARAMUS                 40.95N  74.07W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            WIRES DOWN ON PARAMUS RD AT MORNINGSIDE 

0241 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MAPLE AT ACKERMAN CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND
            POWERLINES 

0244 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MOUNTAINSIDE            40.68N  74.36W
10/29/2011                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            ALL LANES CLOSED US 22 EASTBOUND AT MOUNTAIN AVE DUE TO
            DOWNED TREE 

0255 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VERNON PARK             40.91N  73.82W
10/29/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. 

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VALHALLA                41.07N  73.78W
10/29/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN. 

0316 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BREWSTER                41.40N  73.62W
10/29/2011                   PUTNAM             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES. 

0323 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWTOWN                 41.41N  73.32W
10/29/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            HEAVY SNOW AND WIND CAUSING NUMEROUS TREES TO FALL. 

0327 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW CITY                41.15N  73.99W
10/29/2011                   ROCKLAND           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            DOWNED TREES BLOCKING LANES ON ROUTE 304 AT BARDONIA
            AND GERMONDS 

0336 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDLAND PARK            40.99N  74.14W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   PUBLIC          

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN 

0350 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MAMARONECK              40.93N  73.73W
10/29/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN. 

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BELLEVILLE              40.79N  74.16W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              NJ   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY. 

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG POMONA                  41.19N  74.05W
10/29/2011                   ROCKLAND           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. 

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HAWTHORNE               40.96N  74.16W
10/29/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            BRANCHES DOWN ON WIRES ON WASHINGTON AVENUE. 

0410 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WOLCOTT                 41.61N  72.98W
10/29/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            *** 1 INJ *** PERSON STRUCK BY TREE WHILE WALKING
            OUTSIDE 

0430 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DANBURY                 41.40N  73.47W
10/29/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            TWO HOMES DAMAGED BY FALLING TREES 

0435 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WAYNE                   40.95N  74.25W
10/29/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. POWER OUTAGES. 

0435 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TALLMAN                 41.11N  74.10W
10/29/2011                   ROCKLAND           NY   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN. 

0448 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WARWICK                 41.26N  74.36W
10/29/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN. 

0450 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BLOOMING GROVE          41.41N  74.20W
10/29/2011                   ORANGE             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            TREE DOWN ON CAR ON VILLAGE ROAD. NO INJURIES. 

0458 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SEYMOUR                 41.40N  73.06W
10/29/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN. 

0504 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHERMAN                 41.58N  73.50W
10/29/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC          

            LANES BLOCKED ON ROUTE 39 NEAR HUBBLE MTN RD DUE TO
            DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES 

0505 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MINEOLA                 40.75N  73.64W
10/29/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN AT JACKSON AVENUE AND WARDWELL AVENUE. 

0527 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SLATE HILL              41.39N  74.48W
10/29/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            RIDGEBURY ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN COUNTRY ROAD 12 AND
            GREEVES ROAD DUE TO NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES. EXPECTED TO
            BE CLOSED FOR 12 TO 16 HOURS ACCORDING TO LOCAL FIRE
            DEPARTMENT. 

0531 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
10/29/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   PUBLIC          

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT PINE AND FERRY 

0600 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CENTRAL PARK            40.80N  73.96W
10/29/2011                   NEW YORK (MANHATTA NY   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            THOUSANDS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN IN CENTRAL PARK. 

0613 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DURHAM                  41.47N  72.68W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          CT   PUBLIC          

            ROUTE 17 NEAR DINATALE RD CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES 

0630 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COLCHESTER              41.57N  72.33W
10/29/2011                   NEW LONDON         CT   PUBLIC          

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 16 BETWEEN BIGILOW AND
            WATERHOLE RDS 

0820 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY                  41.06N  74.15W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            TREE ON HOUSE ON WOODLAND AVENUE. 

0821 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RAMSEY                  41.06N  74.15W
10/29/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            THREE CARS DAMAGED DUE TO FALLING TREES. 

0830 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON                40.74N  74.15W
10/29/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN. 

1001 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH CALDWELL          40.86N  74.26W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN OF
            NORTH CALDWELL. 

1030 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MERIDEN                 41.54N  72.80W
10/29/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            MANY TREE BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN ON BRIAR LANE IN
            MERIDEN. 

1045 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GOSHEN                  41.40N  74.33W
10/29/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON GOOD TIME COURT IN GOSHEN. 

1100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOMERS                  41.33N  73.69W
10/29/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   PUBLIC          

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN SOMERS 

1130 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST ORANGE             40.79N  74.26W
10/29/2011                   ESSEX              NJ   PUBLIC          

            TRESS ANND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN. 

1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STATEN ISLAND           40.58N  74.15W
10/30/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON BARD AVENUE BETWEEN CLOVE ROAD
            AND FOREST AVENUE. DOWNED POWER LINES ON VICTORY BLVD
            BETWEEN I-278 AND BARD AVENUE. 

&&

$$

DS

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS51 KPHI 300835
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
435 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HEAVY SNOW       TEMPLE                  40.41N 75.92W
10/29/2011  E0.0 INCH        BERKS              PA   BROADCAST MEDIA 

            *** 1 FATAL *** A MAN WAS KILLED WHEN A SNOW COVERED TREE
            FELL ON TOP OF HIS HOUSE.

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS51 KBOX 300831
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ENFIELD                 41.97N  72.57W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            POWER LINES DOWN ON RTE 220 BETWEEN RTE 5 AND I-91 

0535 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH WINDSOR           41.82N  72.62W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS TOWN 

0537 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SIMSBURY                41.88N  72.81W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            POWER OUTAGES ACROSS TOWN 

0539 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEYDEN                  42.70N  72.62W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ENTIRE TOWN WITHOUT POWER 

0542 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH DEERFIELD         42.48N  72.61W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON MOUNTAIN ROAD 

0545 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LONGMEADOW              42.05N  72.57W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS TOWN 

0552 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST LONGMEADOW         42.07N  72.52W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE TOWN 

0554 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWINGTON               41.69N  72.73W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES 

0604 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MERRIMACK               42.87N  71.48W
10/29/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE LIMB DOWN ON WIRES ON AMHERST ROAD 

0605 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WORTHINGTON             42.42N  72.93W
10/29/2011  M11.3 INCH       HAMPSHIRE          MA   CO-OP OBSERVER  

            NWS COOP 

0613 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PELHAM                  42.40N  72.40W
10/29/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BLOCKING RTE 202 

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHWICK               42.05N  72.77W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH CARS STUCK 

0627 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SUTTON                  42.15N  71.77W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON LACKEY DAM ROAD 

0635 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRANBY                  41.95N  72.78W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES DOWN ALL OVER TOWN 

0646 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ERVING                  42.60N  72.40W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON SOUTH CROSS ROAD 

0647 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTHAMPTON             42.33N  72.68W
10/29/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE AREA WITHOUT POWER AROUND 1-91 

0655 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRANVILLE               42.07N  72.87W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ENTIRE TOWN WITHOUT POWER 

0656 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DEERFIELD               42.55N  72.60W
10/29/2011                   FRANKLIN           MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING RTE 116 

0658 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEST SPRINGFIELD        42.12N  72.65W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON BELMONT AVE 

0659 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FITCHBURG               42.59N  71.82W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ALL OVER TOWN 

0710 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORFOLK                 42.12N  71.32W
10/29/2011                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            LARGE LIMB DOWN BLOCKING RTE 115 

0729 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TEWKSBURY               42.62N  71.23W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING PART OF SHAWSHEEN STREET 

0734 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MANCHESTER              41.78N  72.52W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN 

0740 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PALMER                  42.16N  72.32W
10/29/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            MANY TREES DOWN 

0743 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OXFORD                  41.66N  70.91W
10/29/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            RTE 12 CLOSED TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS ROAD 

0749 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTFORD                42.58N  71.43W
10/29/2011                   MIDDLESEX          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN BLOCKING GROTON ROAD 

0753 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GRANBY                  41.95N  72.78W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            ENTIRE TOWN WITHOUT POWER 

0755 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTHINGTON             41.60N  72.88W
10/29/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO   

            I-84 WEST NEAR EXIT 28 CLOSED DUE TO TREE DOWN 

0757 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHARON                  42.12N  71.18W
10/29/2011                   NORFOLK            MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON CROSS ROAD 

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEOMINSTER              42.52N  71.77W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON TREE CAUSING FIRE ON PARK STREET. WIRES
            DOWN ON PROSPECT STREET 

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FITCHBURG               42.59N  71.82W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON HIGHLAND AVE 

0805 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STERLING                42.43N  71.75W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            TREE DOWN ACROSS RTE 140 ON THE PRINCESTON STERLING
            LINE 

0808 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEOMINSTER              42.52N  71.77W
10/29/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO   

            WIRES DOWN ON ARLINGTON STREET 

1040 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/29/2011  M61 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

1212 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SANDWICH                41.76N  70.49W
10/30/2011  M59 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

0213 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/30/2011  M67 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

0220 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NASHUA                  42.75N  71.49W
10/30/2011                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 3 NEAR EXIT 2 BLOCKING LANE 

0220 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SANDWICH                41.76N  70.49W
10/30/2011  M62 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

0225 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH BROOKFIELD        42.27N  72.08W
10/30/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            ROUTES 67 AND 148 CLOSED DUE TO TREES AND POWER LINES
            DOWN 

0227 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      41.41N  70.62W
10/30/2011  M43 MPH          DUKES              MA   ASOS            

0239 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 NE HYANNIS            41.67N  70.27W
10/30/2011  M43 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   ASOS            

0317 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE HYANNIS            41.67N  70.27W
10/30/2011  M60 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   ASOS            

0327 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE NANTUCKET         41.26N  70.07W
10/30/2011  M68 MPH          NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS            

0330 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  2 ESE NANTUCKET         41.26N  70.07W
10/30/2011  M53 MPH          NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS            

0339 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      41.41N  70.62W
10/30/2011  M59 MPH          DUKES              MA   ASOS            

0353 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARNSTABLE              41.70N  70.30W
10/30/2011  M66 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   HAM RADIO       

            HAM RADIO 

&&

$$

WTB

http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/

Hi everybody. Winter storm warnings are in place for the North East. This could be a very early historic storm that could break many records. Follow the radar action and forecasts at these two locations…

New York and New Jersey area…. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/New_York_and_Vicinity_Forecast.html

New England and Vicinity area….. http://www.massachusettsradar.com/

 

Hi everybody. The El Nino that has been helping us the past year with hurricane control is weakening. Most global models are trending to ENSO Neutral by July. This will most certainly bring above normal rainfall, potentially in the form of tropical systems, during the 2010 summer. Some models are actually trending towards a La Nina event which is a cooling of the tropical Pacific region. La Nina tends to produce more hurricanes but often helps to have them recurve out to sea rather then strike land. Most models agree on the neutral scenario which is usually also the worst scenario. Neutral conditions typically do not promote trade winds which can keep tropical systems from getting stronger. The end result can be more and stronger storms as was evident in 2004 and 5 which were neutral years. If the model consensus for the La Nina event does take place in the fall, it could;d help us with less landfall impacts.

In short, this year will most certainly be more active then last year. The cold ocean temperatures will eventually rise as the tropical sunshine begins its assault on the tropics. Although I do not forecast an early season start, we need to be prepared just in case Mother Nature unleashes her fury. As we have seen, places like the Northeast have seen not 100 year events, but 500 year weather events this past season. Entire states like Rhode Island have been paralyzed by flooding rains that have not been seen for centuries. Be sure to check out our new interactive tropical weather page for the latest current and archived tropical weather information. For the latest Florida Weather, visit us at http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ .

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. This is the latest model reports for El Nino and it looks like it is weakening. According to the models, we are going to Neutral conditions or possably La Nina. As you know, neutral is bad for everybody as storms can develop with little influence from trade winds. The end result are cyclones that basically do whatever they please and many will develop rapid intensification that will lead to extremly powerful storms. Being prepared will be a bit more important this year as it appears that threts will most likely be more numerous then in the past couple of seasons past. With hurricane season less then a month away, the time is now to start getting ready for this potentially destructive season.

EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EST THU 06 MAY 2010

NOTE: FIGURES MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ARE AVAILABLE
ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION /ENSO/ DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
ISSUED BY CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 6 MAY 2010

ENSO ALERT SYSTEM STATUS: EL NINO ADVISORY

SYNOPSIS:  A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
BY JUNE 2010, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SUMMER 2010.
      EL NINO WEAKENED DURING APRIL 2010 AS POSITIVE SURFACE
      TEMPERATURE /SST/ ANOMALIES DECREASED ACROSS THE
      EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN.  HOWEVER, SST ANOMALIES STILL
      EXCEEDED +0.5C ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC AT THE END
      OF THE MONTH.  SINCE THE END OF FEBRUARY, SUBSURFACE
      HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES /AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
      UPPER 300M OF THE OCEAN/ HAVE DECREASED STEADILY IN
      ASSOCIATION WITH THE EXPANSION AND STRENGTHENING OF
      BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT DEPTH /25-200M/.  ALSO,
      ENHANCED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER INDONESIA, WHILE
      SUPPRESSED CONVECTION STRENGTHENED AND EXPANDED OVER THE
      TROPICAL PACIFIC, SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.  THE LOW-LEVEL
      EQUATORIAL TRADE WINDS REMAINED NEAR-AVERAGE, AND
      ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE
      CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING MUCH OF APRIL.  COLLECTIVELY, THESE
      OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES REFLECT A WEAKENING EL
      NINO.  NEARLY ALL MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SST ANOMALIES
      IN THE NINO-3.4 REGION THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
      SUMMER 2010.  MOST MODELS PREDICT A TRANSITION TO
      ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING APRIL-JUNE 2010, FOLLOWED
      BY ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.
      HOWEVER, BY JULY-SEPTEMBER 2010, THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL
      SOLUTIONS INCLUDES A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER /NEARLY A THIRD/
      INDICATING THE ONSET OF LA NINA CONDITIONS.  EVEN THOUGH
      ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THE SECOND
      HALF OF THE YEAR, THE GENERAL TENDENCY OF THE MODELS IN
      RECENT MONTHS HAS BEEN TOWARD INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE SST
      ANOMALIES IN THE NINO-3.4 REGION.  THESE FORECASTS, IN
      ADDITION TO VARIOUS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS,
      INDICATE A GROWING POSSIBILITY OF LA NINA DEVELOPING
      DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 2010.

$$

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody, the official ststs are out and we are in for a bumby season. It must be emphasixed that even though the season may be active, it does not mean that all storms will make landfall or even touch Florida. It is important to remember that with a bad season forecast, preperation is going to be the key. to avoid financial hardship at the the last minute, I am going to again preach that we should all be getting our hurricane supplies a little at a time throughout the season. Get a few items every week. Stock up on bottled water when it is on sale and keep your stock high. Be sure to rotate the stock. Take advantage of sales on batteries and fill your 5 gallon gas tanks at a reat of one of week until you have your full stock on hand. Be sure to use fuel stabilizer.

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is very conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This expectation is based on the prediction of three climate factors, all of which are conducive historically to increased tropical cyclone activity. These climate factors are: 1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995, 2) exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region), and 3) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely. In addition, dynamical models forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones also predict a very active season.

The conditions expected this year have historically produced some very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2010 hurricane season could see activity comparable to a number of extremely active seasons since 1995. If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of our predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record.

We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

• 14-23 Named Storms,
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes
• An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.

Hurricane Landfalls:
It only takes one storm hitting your area to cause a disaster, regardless of the activity predicted in the seasonal outlook. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook.

While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical probability for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply for exceptionally active (i.e. hyperactive) seasons (ACE > 175% of median). However, predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.

 

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FXNT20 KWNC 051520 PAA PMDAHU ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK 2010 NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1100 AM EST THU 05 AUG 2010 NOTE: FIGURES MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV NOAA 2010 UPDATED ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK ISSUED 5 AUGUST 2010 THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK IS AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT OF THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION /NOAA/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/. THE OUTLOOK IS PRODUCED IN COLLABORATION WITH SCIENTISTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/, AND THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION /HRD/. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE REGION INCLUDES THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, CARIBBEAN SEA, AND GULF OF MEXICO. INTERPRETATION OF NOAAS ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK THIS OUTLOOK IS GENERAL GUIDE TO THE EXPECTED OVERALL ACTIVITY DURING THE HURRICANE SEASON. IT IS NOT A SEASONAL HURRICANE LANDFALL FORECAST, AND IT DOES NOT PREDICT LEVELS OF ACTIVITY FOR ANY PARTICULAR REGION. PREPAREDNESS HURRICANE DISASTERS CAN OCCUR WHETHER THE SEASON IS ACTIVE OR RELATIVELY QUIET.IT ONLY TAKES ONE HURRICANE /OR TROPICAL STORM/ TO CAUSE A DISASTER. RESIDENTS, BUSINESSES, AND GOVERNMENT AGENCIES OF COASTAL AND NEAR-COASTAL REGIONS ARE URGED TO PREPARE FOR EVERY HURRICANE SEASON REGARDLESS OF THIS, OR ANY OTHER, SEASONAL OUTLOOK. NOAA, THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY /FEMA/, NHC, THE SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, AND THE AMERICAN RED CROSS ALL PROVIDE IMPORTANT HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION ON THEIR WEB SITES. NOAA DOES NOT MAKE SEASONAL HURRICANE LANDFALL PREDICTIONS NOAA DOES NOT MAKE SEASONAL HURRICANE LANDFALL PREDICTIONS. HURRICANE LANDFALLS ARE LARGELY DETERMINED BY THE WEATHER PATTERNS IN PLACE AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES, WHICH ARE ONLY PREDICTABLE WHEN THE STORM IS WITHIN SEVERAL DAYS OF MAKING LANDFALL. NATURE OF THIS OUTLOOK AND THE “LIKELY” RANGES OF ACTIVITY THIS OUTLOOK IS PROBABILISTIC, MEANING THE STATED “LIKELY” RANGES OF ACTIVITY HAVE A CERTAIN LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRING. THE SEASONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN THESE RANGES IN ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF SEASONS WITH SIMILAR CLIMATE CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO THOSE EXPECTED THIS YEAR. THEY DO NOT REPRESENT THE TOTAL POSSIBLE RANGES OF ACTIVITY SEEN IN PAST SIMILAR YEARS. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON 1/ PREDICTIONS OF LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE FACTORS AND CONDITIONS KNOWN TO BE STRONG INDICATORS OF SEASONAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY, AND 2/ PROMISING NEW CLIMATE MODELS THAT ARE NOW BEGINNING TO DIRECTLY PREDICT SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY. SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SEASONAL OUTLOOK 1. MANY COMBINATIONS OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES CAN OCCUR FOR THE SAME GENERAL SET OF CLIMATE CONDITIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, ONE CANNOT KNOW WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER A GIVEN CLIMATE SIGNAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORT-LIVED STORMS OR FEWER LONGER-LIVED STORMS WITH GREATER INTENSITY. 2. WEATHER PATTERNS THAT ARE UNPREDICTABLE ON SEASONAL TIME SCALES CAN SOMETIMES DEVELOP AND LAST FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS, POSSIBLY AFFECTING SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY. UPDATED 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK: SUMMARY NOAAS UPDATED 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ABOVE NORMAL SEASON. THERE IS ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A NEAR-NORMAL SEASON, AND NO EXPECTATION THE SEASON WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THEREFORE, 2010 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE ELEVENTH ABOVE-NORMAL SEASON SINCE 1995. SEE NOAA DEFINITIONS OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL SEASONS. THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE REGION /OR BASIN/ INCLUDES THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO HURRICANE FORMATION, AS WAS PREDICTED IN NOAAS PRE-SEASON OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PEAK MONTHS /AUGUST-OCTOBER/ OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THREE CLIMATE FACTORS; THE TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL, LA NINA, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION, DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO PREDICT A VERY ACTIVE SEASON. WE ESTIMATE A 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING SEASONAL /JUNE-NOVEMBER/ RANGES OF ACTIVITY DURING 2010. THESE RANGES ARE CONSISTENT WITH NOAAS MAY OUTLOOK, AND REITERATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY ACTIVE SEASON /I.E. HYPERACTIVE, DEFINED BY ACE ? 175 PERCENT OF MEDIAN/, PERHAPS ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE ON RECORD. * 14-20 NAMED STORMS, * 8-12 HURRICANES * 4-6 MAJOR HURRICANES * AN ACE RANGE OF 170 PERCENT-260 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL WITHIN THESE RANGES IN ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF SEASONS WITH SIMILAR CLIMATE CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO THOSE EXPECTED THIS YEAR. THEY DO NOT REPRESENT THE TOTAL POSSIBLE RANGES OF ACTIVITY SEEN IN PAST SIMILAR YEARS. THESE RANGES INCLUDE THE TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE SEEN TO DATE. DURING JUNE JULY 2010, TWO NAMED STORMS /HURRICANE ALEX AND TROPICAL STORM BONNIE/ FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE PRE-SEASON OUTLOOK ISSUED IN LATE MAY REFLECTED THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN MORE EARLY-SEASON ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER ENDS OF THE PREDICTED RANGES HAVE BEEN REDUCED. NONETHELESS, SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS PREDICTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 12-17 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH 7-11 ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANES WITH 4-6 REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. ANY REGION OR COMMUNITY CAN EXPERIENCE A DEVASTATING HURRICANE REGARDLESS OF THE OVERALL SEASONAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, DURING HYPERACTIVE SEASONS, THE HISTORICAL PROBABILITY FOR MULTIPLE U.S. HURRICANE STRIKES, AND FOR MULTIPLE HURRICANE STRIKES IN THE REGION AROUND THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCREASES SHARPLY. THEREFORE, IT IS EVEN MORE IMPERATIVE FOR THIS SEASON THAT RESIDENTS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN HURRICANE-VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES HAVE AN EFFECTIVE HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLAN IN PLACE. NOAA DOES NOT MAKE AN OFFICIAL SEASONAL LANDFALL OUTLOOK. PREDICTING WHERE AND WHEN HURRICANES WILL STRIKE IS RELATED TO DAILY WEATHER PATTERNS, WHICH ARE NOT PREDICTABLE WEEKS OR MONTHS IN ADVANCE. THEREFORE, IT IS CURRENTLY NOT POSSIBLE TO RELIABLY PREDICT THE NUMBER OR INTENSITY OF LANDFALLING HURRICANES AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES, OR WHETHER A SPECIFIC LOCALITY WILL BE IMPACTED BY A HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DISCUSSION 1. EXPECTED 2010 ACTIVITY CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS, KNOWN CLIMATE FACTORS, AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, ALL POINT TO AN ABOVE NORMAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON DURING 2010. NOAAS UPDATED SEASONAL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ABOVE-NORMAL SEASON, AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A NEAR-NORMAL SEASON. THIS UPDATED OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH NOAAS PRE-SEASON OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MAY, WHICH INDICATED AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ABOVE NORMAL SEASON. AN IMPORTANT MEASURE OF THE TOTAL SEASONAL ACTIVITY IS NOAAS ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX, WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE COMBINED INTENSITY AND DURATION OF ALL NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES DURING THE SEASON. ACCORDING TO NOAAS HURRICANE SEASON CLASSIFICATIONS, AN ACE VALUE AT OR ABOVE 175 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN REFLECTS A VERY ACTIVE /OR HYPERACTIVE/ SEASON. FOR 2010, WE ESTIMATE A 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SEASONAL ACE RANGE WILL BE 170 PERCENT-260 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN. THIS RANGE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A HYPERACTIVE SEASON. THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS EXPECTED /WITH 70 PERCENT CHANCE/ TO PRODUCE A TOTAL OF 14-20 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH 8-12 ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANES WITH 4-6 BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES. IF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE UPPER END OF OUR PREDICTED RANGES, THE SEASON WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE ON RECORD. THESE RANGES INCLUDE THE TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE HURRICANE SEEN TO DATE. DURING JUNE JULY 2010, TWO NAMED STORMS /HURRICANE ALEX AND TROPICAL STORM BONNIE/ FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE PRE-SEASON OUTLOOK ISSUED IN LATE MAY REFLECTED THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN MORE EARLY-SEASON ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER ENDS OF THE PREDICTED RANGES HAVE BEEN REDUCED. NONETHELESS, SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS PREDICTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 12-17 NAMED STORMS, OF WHICH 7-11 ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANES WITH 4-6 REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH THREAT OF A VERY ACTIVE SEASON, WE ARE INCLUDING SOME HISTORICAL U.S. HURRICANE LANDFALL STATISTICS BASED ON PAST SIMILAR SEASONS. THESE STATISTICS DO NOT REPRESENT AN EXPLICIT HURRICANE LANDFALL FORECAST, AS IT IS NOT CURRENTLY POSSIBLE TO RELIABLY PREDICT SUCH ACTIVITY SO FAR IN ADVANCE. VERY ACTIVE SEASONS FEATURE MORE HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES, AS WELL AS SYSTEMATIC CHANGES IN WHERE THESE SYSTEMS DEVELOP AND TRACK. IN PARTICULAR, THEY FEATURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION /MDR, WHICH INCLUDES THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 9N-21.5N; GOLDENBERG ET AL. 2001/. SUCH STORMS TYPICALLY HAVE MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN, AND OFTEN TRACK FARTHER WESTWARD THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS THAT DEVELOP TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SYSTEMATIC INCREASE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN, WHICH RESULTS IN AN INCREASED THREAT TO THE CONTINENTAL U.S., THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE REGION AROUND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HISTORICAL PROBABILITIES FOR MULTIPLE HURRICANE STRIKES INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING VERY ACTIVE SEASONS FOR BOTH THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE REGION AROUND THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO SEES A SHARP INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY DURING THESE SEASONS. HISTORICALLY, ALL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONS HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST ONE NAMED STORM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND 95 PERCENT HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST TWO NAMED STORMS IN THE GULF. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY /80 PERCENT/ OCCURS DURING AUGUST-OCTOBER, WITH SEVENTY PERCENT OF ABOVE NORMAL SEASONS SEEING AT LEAST THREE NAMED STORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE THE CLIMATE PATTERNS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASED THREAT OF HURRICANE LANDFALLS THIS YEAR, PREDICTING THE LOCATION, NUMBER, TIMING, AND STRENGTH, OF THOSE EVENTS IS ULTIMATELY RELATED TO THE DAILY WEATHER PATTERNS, WHICH ARE NOT PREDICTABLE WEEKS OR MONTHS IN ADVANCE. AS A RESULT, IT IS CURRENTLY NOT POSSIBLE TO RELIABLY PREDICT THE NUMBER OR INTENSITY OF LANDFALLING HURRICANES AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES, OR WHETHER A GIVEN LOCALITY WILL BE IMPACTED BY A HURRICANE THIS SEASON. THEREFORE, NOAA DOES NOT MAKE AN OFFICIAL SEASONAL HURRICANE LANDFALL OUTLOOK. 2. SCIENCE BEHIND THE UPDATED 2010 OUTLOOK THE UPDATED 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK PRIMARILY REFLECTS A SET OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS NOW IN PLACE, WHICH ARE VERY CONDUCIVE TO HURRICANE FORMATION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PEAK MONTHS OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON, AND ARE LINKED TO THREE CLIMATE FACTORS: 1/ THE TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL, 2/ LA NINA, AND 3/ A CONTINUATION OF EXCEPTIONALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SSTS/ IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NOAAS PRE-SEASON OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MAY. THIS OUTLOOK ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS FROM NEW MODELS SUCH AS THE NOAA CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/, THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING /ECMWF/, THE UNITED KINGDOM METEOROLOGY /UKMET/ OFFICE MODEL, AND THE EUROPEAN SEASONAL TO INTER-ANNUAL PREDICTION /EUROSIP/ ENSEMBLE. ALL OF THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY ACTIVE SEASON. A. EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL ONE FACTOR GUIDING THIS OUTLOOK IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL, WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE HIGH-ACTIVITY ERA IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN THAT BEGAN IN 1995. KEY COMPONENTS OF THIS SIGNAL INCLUDE AN ENHANCED WEST AFRICAN MONSOON CIRCULATION AND ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS IN BOTH THE LOWER AND HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITHIN THE MDR, ATMOSPHERIC ASPECTS OF THE TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL SEEN SINCE 1995 INCLUDE REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAKER EASTERLY TRADE WINDS, AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC SHEAR AT 700-HPA ALONG THE EQUATORWARD FLANK OF THE AFRICAN EASTERLY JET. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN PLACE, ALONG WITH OTHER RELATED CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THAT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE TO HURRICANE FORMATION, INCLUDING 1/ AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF ANOMALOUS EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM AFRICA AND 2/ ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION /I.E. STREAMFUNCTION/ ANOMALIES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN BOTH HEMISPHERES. B. LA NINA ANOTHER CLIMATE FACTOR KNOWN TO IMPACT ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY IS THE EL NINO/ SOUTHERN OSCILLATION /ENSO/. THE THREE PHASES OF ENSO ARE EL NINO, LA NINA, AND NEUTRAL. LA NINA REFERS TO A PERIODIC ANOMALOUS COOLING OF SSTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS COOLING AFFECTS RAINFALL PATTERNS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WHICH, IN TURN, ALTERS WIND PATTERNS SO AS TO REDUCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE MDR. CONSEQUENTLY, LA NINA IS TYPICALLY MORE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASED ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY /GRAY 1984/. LA NINA DEVELOPED DURING JULY, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ISSUED BY NOAAS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. NEARLY ALL ENSO FORECAST MODELS NOW PREDICT LA NINA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE UPPER-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IS NOW IN A LA NINA STATE, AS INDICATED BY CYCLONIC STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC OF BOTH HEMISPHERES /BLUE SHADING IN NH, RED SHADING IN SH/. OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC BASINS IN BOTH HEMISPHERES, THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA, AS INDICATED BY EXTENSIVE EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND ANTICYCLONIC STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES /RED IN NH, BLUE IN SH/. OVER THE ATLANTIC BASIN, THESE CONDITIONS ACT TO EXTEND WESTWARD AND ACCENTUATE THE CIRCULATION ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL. THIS COMBINATION ACCOUNTS FOR THE BASIN-WIDE PATTERNS OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE MDR, AND GREATLY INCREASES THE PROBABILITY OF A VERY ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON DURING 2010. C. ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION ANOTHER FACTOR GUIDING THE OUTLOOK IS THE EXPECTATION OF MUCH ABOVE-AVERAGE TO NEAR-RECORD SSTS IN THE MDR DURING AUGUST-OCTOBER. THIS PREDICTION IS BASED ON CLIMATE MODEL FORECASTS SUCH AS NOAAS CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM /CFS/ AND ON OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. SINCE MARCH, MONTHLY SST DEPARTURES AVERAGED OVER THE ENTIRE MDR HAVE BEEN AT RECORD LEVELS. THE MOST RECENT SST ANALYSIS INDICATES DEPARTURES EXCEEDING +1.0C ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS WARMTH IS MUCH LARGER THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE GLOBAL TROPICS, AND IS A FURTHER INDICATION THAT CLIMATE CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. 3. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE ONGOING HIGH ACTIVITY ERA IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS EXHIBIT EXTENDED PERIODS LASTING DECADES OF GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL ACTIVITY. THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY RESULT ALMOST ENTIRELY FROM DIFFERENCES IN THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES FORMING FROM TROPICAL STORMS FIRST NAMED IN THE MDR. THE CURRENT HIGH-ACTIVITY ERA HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 1995. HURRICANE SEASONS DURING 1995-2009 HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 14.5 NAMED STORMS, 8 HURRICANES, AND 4 MAJOR HURRICANES, WITH AN AVERAGE ACE INDEX OF 160 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN. NOAA CLASSIFIES TEN OF THE FIFTEEN SEASONS SINCE 1995 AS ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SEVEN BEING HYPERACTIVE /ACE > 175 PERCENT OF MEDIAN/. ONLY FIVE SEASONS SINCE 1995 HAVE NOT BEEN ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH INCLUDE FOUR EL NINO YEARS /1997, 2002, 2006, AND 2009/ AND THE 2007 SEASON. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF ACTIVITY SINCE 1995 CONTRASTS SHARPLY TO THE LOW-ACTIVITY ERA OF 1971-1994 /GOLDENBERG ET AL. 2001/, WHICH AVERAGED ONLY 8.5 NAMED STORMS, 5 HURRICANES, AND 1.5 MAJOR HURRICANES, AND HAD AN AVERAGE ACE INDEX OF ONLY 75 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN. ONE-HALF OF THE SEASONS DURING THIS LOW-ACTIVITY ERA WERE BELOW NORMAL, ONLY THREE WERE ABOVE NORMAL /1980, 1988, 1989/, AND NONE WERE HYPERACTIVE. WITHIN THE MDR, THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ANOMALIES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO THESE LONG-PERIOD FLUCTUATIONS IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY ARE STRONGLY LINKED TO THE TROPICAL MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL /BELL AND CHELLIAH 2006/. A CHANGE IN THE PHASE OF THE MULTI-DECADAL SIGNAL COINCIDES WITH THE TRANSITION IN 1995 FROM A LOW-ACTIVITY ERA TO THE CURRENT HIGH-ACTIVITY ERA. BACKGROUND INFORMATION: NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OFFICIALLY RUNS FROM 1 JUNE TO 30 NOVEMBER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE ACTIVITY TYPICALLY OCCURS DURING THE AUGUST-OCTOBER /ASO/ PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. AN AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON FEATURES APPROXIMATELY 11 NAMED STORMS /MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 39-73 MPH/, WITH SIX OF THOSE BECOMING HURRICANES /MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 74 MPH/ AND TWO BECOMING MAJOR HURRICANES /MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 111 MPH, CATEGORIES 3-5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE/. MEASURING TOTAL SEASONAL ACTIVITY: THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX THE PHRASE “TOTAL SEASONAL ACTIVITY” REFERS TO THE COLLECTIVE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF ATLANTIC NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES OCCURRING DURING A GIVEN SEASON. THE MEASURE OF TOTAL SEASONAL ACTIVITY USED BY NOAA IS CALLED THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX. THE ACE INDEX IS A WIND ENERGY INDEX, DEFINED AS THE SUM OF THE SQUARES OF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED /KNOTS/ MEASURED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL NAMED SYSTEMS WHILE THEY ARE AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. NOAA USES THE ACE INDEX, COMBINED WITH THE NUMBERS OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES, TO CATEGORIZE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS AS BEING ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, OR BELOW NORMAL. NOAAS ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CLASSIFICATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL SEASON: AN ACE INDEX VALUE WELL ABOVE 103 X 104 KT2 /CORRESPONDING TO 117 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN ACE VALUE OR 110 PERCENT OF THE MEAN/, OR AN ACE VALUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 103 X 104 KT2 COMBINED WITH AT LEAST TWO OF THE FOLLOWING THREE PARAMETERS BEING ABOVE THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE: NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES. NEAR-NORMAL SEASON: AN ACE INDEX VALUE IN THE RANGE 66-103 X 104 KT2 /CORRESPONDING TO 75 PERCENT-117 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN OR 71 PERCENT-110 PERCENT OF THE MEAN/, OR AN ACE INDEX VALUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 103 X 104 KT2 BUT WITH NO MORE THAN ONE OF THE FOLLOWING THREE PARAMETERS BEING ABOVE THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE: NUMBERS OF NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES, AND MAJOR HURRICANES. BELOW-NORMAL SEASON: AN ACE INDEX VALUE BELOW 66 X 104 KT2, CORRESPONDING TO LESS THAN 75 PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN OR 71 PERCENT OF THE MEAN. THE 1951-2000 BASE PERIOD IS USED IN THE ABOVE CLASSIFICATIONS, WHERE THE MEAN VALUE OF THE ACE INDEX IS /93.2 X 104 KT2/, AND THE MEDIAN VALUE IS /87.5 X 104 KT2/. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE 1950-2005 SEASONAL MEANS AND RANGES FOR NAMED STORMS, HURRICANES AND MAJOR HURRICANES DURING ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL, AND ALL ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS. THIS TABLE HIGHLIGHTS THE MARKED DIFFERENCES IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE THREE SEASON TYPES. SEASON TYPE MEAN # OF TROPICAL STORMS RANGE OF NAMED STORMS MEAN # OF HURRICANES RANGE OF HURRICANES MEAN # OF MAJOR HURRICANES RANGE OF MAJOR HURRICANES ABOVE-NORMAL 13.7 10 TO 28 8.6 6 TO 15 4.5 2 TO 8 NEAR-NORMAL 9.4 6 TO 14 5.6 4 TO 8 1.9 1 TO 3 BELOW-NORMAL 6.9 4 TO 9 3.7 2 TO 5 1.1 0 TO 2 ALL SEASONS 10.3 4 TO 28 6.2 2 TO 15 2.7 0 TO 8 THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS THE 1950-2005 SEASONAL MEANS AND RANGES FOR LANDFALLING HURRICANES IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS /INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SURROUNDING LAND AREAS/ DURING ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR NORMAL, BELOW NORMAL HURRICANE SEASONS. THIS TABLE HIGHLIGHTS THE MARKED DIFFERENCES LANDFALLING HURRICANES BETWEEN THE THREE SEASON TYPES. SEASON TYPE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MEAN RANGE MEAN RANGE ABOVE-NORMAL 2.5 0-6 2.5 0-6 NEAR-NORMAL 1.8 0-6 0.9 0-3 BELOW-NORMAL 0.9 0-2 0.3 0-1 This message has been generated from the office of HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html . Please visit our new garden site called HomeTownGarden.com. http://hometowngarden.com/

Hi everybody. Tropical depression 5 has formed in the Gulf and is making a beeline for Louisiana. Invest 94L has developed better structure and has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 5. The TD is forecast to move northwest with NHC initial landfall projection into the Louisiana delta Thursday morning as a 40 knot Tropical Storm.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued as follows:

“A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA…INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.”

Residents along the northern Gulf coast should monitor the progress and development of this system.

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Hi everybody. Tropical Depression 5 has formed overnight and is heading towards the Gulf Coast area of Louisiana. Tropical storm warnings have been issued from Destin, Florida to pascagoula, Al. Overnight, TD 5 has pulled in lots of dry air and is weaker then it was yesterday. It still will have some opportunity to potentially become a tropical storm before making landfall on the coast. Much of the rain associated with the system has already been pulled away from our area as the system moves up and away. Here is the latest official advisory.

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WTUS84 KMOB 110337
HLSMOB

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO…

AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…AND
GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.

WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…
MOBILE AND BALDWIN IN ALABAMA…AND ESCAMBIA…SANTA ROSA…AND
OKALOOSA IN FLORIDA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.

STORM INFORMATION…
AT 10 PM CDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.2N…LONGITUDE 84.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA…OR ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 35 MPH.

SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY…WITH A CONTINUED GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS…NO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK
LINE OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR THOSE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING…NOW IS THE TIME TO
COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. EVACUATE IF DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS…OR IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS…DOCKS…AND MARINAS…COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR
SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING…SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION…PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 5 AM CDT…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-120345-
/O.CON.KMOB.TI.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100812T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1037 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2010

..TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY…
..TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS STATEMENT FOR THE OUTLOOK OF
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE
ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO
BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN
AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME…PLAN TO LEAVE IT FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

..WINDS…
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE APPROACHES AND STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL
STORM…PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…MAINLY IN PASSING
SQUALLS…ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

..STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. OVER THE COMING
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FORECASTERS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER DEFINE THE STORM
SURGE THREAT LOCALLY AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED.

..INLAND FLOODING…
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 10 INCHES IN BANDS OF
PERSISTENT HEAVIER RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION.

..COASTAL THREATS…
IN ADDITION TO THE THREATS FOR STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE BEACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME BEACH EROSION
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

$$

GARMON

WWWW

     

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Our New Orleans Digital Level 2 Radar is now up and running. Catch the Depression as it makes landfall in this region over the next couple of days. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH…AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…50 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT…THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN BRIEF SQUALLS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Hi everybody. So far the Atlantic Hurricane season has been extremely quiet. Things will most likely start changing in the coming weeks. We are now approaching the most critical 6 weeks of the season. We may be in for a wild ride so fasten your seatbelts! We are already seeing some changes in the deep tropics. The waters are getting warmer, the  shear is beginning to relax and moisture content in the atmosphere is getting higher. This all leads to a higher likelihood of tropical storm formation. In active years, there is almost a 90% chance that somewhere along the eastern seaboard will experience tropical activity in some shape or form.

Now is the time to again review your disaster plans and get your hurricane kit up to date. Even with a bad season, it does not mean we will get slammed with a severe storm. There is a lot of real estate up and down the east coast so pinpointing any specific area is impossible for anyone to predict. If you live on the Atlantic or Gulf coast, you need to be ready.

 

 This message has been generated from the office of

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Hi everybody, we are carefully tracking the progress of Earl. This system will be watched much more closely then Danielle. Although some of the models are showing paths that are similar to Danielle, the track is farther south and much farther west then any models ever took Danielle. Earl will be coming into the triangle where often storms will hit the lower east coast. With this in mind we will need to keep a close eye on Earl.

Unusually warm ocean temperatures coupled with low shear will most certainly result in a strengthening cyclone. Earl will ride under the subtropical ridge for the next 3 – 4 days and then will gradually reach the weakness in the ridge and will then maintain a more west-northwest direction. A lot will ride how weak or strong the ridge is when the system approaches it. Latest Updates   Latest model tracks

 

Hi everybody. We are now tracking 2 systems and another wave has just emerged from the African Coast. First, we will focus on Danielle.Danielle has been tracking slightly to the right of the forecast track. This steering pattern is being generated by the interaction of a subtropical ridge and a trough in the northern states. The big question after 5 days is whether the trough is going to pick up the system or if the system will be left behind. If the system is left behind, we could see a bend back to the left.

Tropical storm Earl is our most important thing to watch as of now. The system has changed little since the last advisory. Since the center of the system is hard to see on inferred radar, the motion is somewhat uncertain. The cyclone is expected to move west while riding under a subtropical ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected around day 4 of the forecast period. There is some spread in the models later in the forecast period. The official forecast is on the south side of the guidance envelope. The system appears to stay to the north of the islands but after that, the track is still uncertain. The cyclone will make a much closer pass to us then Danielle did. Please stay tuned on this system as it races across the Atlantic. Most likely, Earl will stay at sea but it still much be watched.

 

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Good morning everybody. I have good news this morning. The first stop will be Tropical Storm Earl. This morning, Earl is beginning to look much better in structure and spiral banding is starting to get more prominent. The system is still quite elongated which is an indication that rapid intensification will not take place, at least in the near term. The ocean water is warm and the shear is low which could allow for intensification through the day. We will most likely have a hurricane in a day or two. Earl is moving towards the west-northwest. This trend is expected to continue for the next 72 hours. After that, Earl will begin to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This turn will eventually lead to a more northwesterly path. Global models are showing a turn that will take the system out to sea. This scenario appears more likely with the model runs that came out this morning. This would be great news for the US mainland indeed.

Hurricane Danielle is getting better organized this morning. Winds are now at 105 MPH. An eye is now forming which indicates strengthening. With the low shear environment, Danielle should become a major hurricane in the next day or so. After 72 hours, the shear will get stronger and some weakening should be expected at that time. Danielle is tracking a little to the right of the forecast track and Danielle will eventually take a due north course. There are no coastal watches in effect however Bermuda should monitor this system very closely. Danielle could be a major hurricane as it makes it’s closest pass to Bermuda. Danielle should not affect any areas of the mainland US.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a vigorous wave has emerged off the African coast and we will most likely be tracking that system by the weekend as a new named storm.

Interactive Coverage                                       Classic Coverage

 

 

Good afternoon all! There have been some changes in the models this afternoon for Earl. The models have shifted quite a bit to the left and the recurve hook is not as pronounced. If this shift continues as a trend. the Outer Banks or the Carolinas might want to keep a close eye on this system. This could be one of those “turn baby turn” type of storms as the models shift back and forth with time. The new discussion will be out this evening and we will see if the thinking has changed any or not. I will keep watching the models to see if we have any more shifts towards the left.

Invest 97 has just been named and it will be monitored for signs of organization. It follows a track very similar to the others and hopefully will recurve out to sea, as is indicated with the models. Confidence with Earl and Invest 97 are not as high as it was with Danielle. I am expecting some track changes, not in our favor, over the next couple of advisories.

It should be noted that the SAL layer is presently keeping Earl at bay. Once he moves away from this drier air, an explosion is quite certain.

Interactive Coverage                      Classic Coverage and models               Model and Track coverage for Earl

Hi everybody. Earl is still a tropical storm but is forecast to become an intense hurricane late in the forecast period. Both the ocean and the atmosphere appear to be very favorable for intensification. Earl is still moving to the west following the underside of a subtropical ridge. This should continue for the next day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should start to turn more west-northwest and then northwest in response to the weakness in the ridge. The system will be an intense hurricane at that time.Global models are for now keeping the cyclone away from the US mainland. There is about an 85% chance that the system will NOT hit the mainland US. Nothing to worry about at this time but the system needs to be watched as it approaches the turn. Danielle is no a major cat 4 hurricane that will skirt the Bermuda area with rough surf and rip currents.

Classic Coverage                    Interactive Coverage

 

Hi everybody. Earl is struggling at this hour to maintain his strength. This is what could happen. In many cases, but not all, weaker systems track farther west. If this is the case, the Leeward Islands may be at risk. In addition, the odds are still good for a recurve before a US strike but confidence on this scenario are not really high at present. Since the later part of the forecast period calls for an intense cyclone, Earl will have to be watched with extreme caution as the days and hours progress. Historically speaking from Earl’s present location, there is a 15-20% chance of it making a strike or close call on the lower US East Coast. We are still low on the worry meter but I just want everyone to stay informed and not completely write this system off just yet. I should note that at present, the models are still favoring a recurve.

HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html .

 

Hi everybody. With Earl and Danielle forecast to stay out of our hair, a new game in town is coming right behind them. Invest 97 will most likely be a tropical storm by Sunday. Steering currents may or may not co operate with this new system. The current long term models are showing hints of a recurve but the chances of 3 storms following the same track with the same steering currents is unlikely. At any rate, we will be closely watching this system by Labor Day. We are still watching Earl to be sure he stays away from the Leeward Islands. There is an 87% chance that Earl will NOT hit the US.

Classic Tracking     Interactive Tracking

 

 

Hi everybody. TS Earl is still holding his own and is headed towards the Leeward Islands in a hurry. Watches and warnings have been issued for that area.The system is *expected* to slow down and make a west-northwest turn in response to the weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track continues to move west and south with each model pass. Those folks in the upper east coast US will want to keep an eye on this system. Models are beginning to show a trend taking the storm closer to the US then previous models have. Earl  should be an intense hurricane in about 3 days. Residents of the Leeward Islands should get ready for possible tropical storm conditions.

Invest 97 will track farther west then any of the storms thus far. Although it has not developed as of yet, it is expected to do so. This system will arrive in our neck of the woods around September 5 or so. A long time to still watch this system.

  

Latest Models      Full Coverage         Storm Floater Satellite

 

 

 

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED…CORRECTED
TROPICAL STORM EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1239 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

..EARL MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…HURRICANE
WATCH ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO…

AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS…SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY…NORTHEAST…SOUTHEAST…EASTERN INTERIOR…
NORTH CENTRAL…CENTRAL INTERIOR…PONCE AND VICINITY…
NORTHWEST…WESTERN INTERIOR…MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY…
SOUTHWEST…CULEBRA…VIEQUES…ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS AND ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS…A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

STORM INFORMATION…
AT 11 PM AST…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6N…LONGITUDE 55.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 710 MILES EAST
OF SAN JUAN PR…OR ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF SAINT THOMAS VI.
EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS…AND EARL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.

SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TROPICAL STORM EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD. BASED ON
ITS FORECAST TRACK…THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…VIEQUES AND CULEBRA …AND
POTENTIALLY MAINLAND PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY…ANY DELAY IN THIS EXPECTED
TURN COULD MEAN MORE SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS. HEAVY RAINS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE FORERUNNER BANDS APPROACH
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION DURING
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND
SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH…NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS…DOCKS…AND MARINAS…IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT…BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH…SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION… PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 245 AM SUNDAY…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

AMZ710-VIZ001-002-300445-
/O.UPG.TJSJ.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.A.1007.100829T0439Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1239 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

..HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…
NEW POSITION…FORECAST TRACK AND WATCHES.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY EVACUATION ORDERS
THAT ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS…OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING…EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION
ZONES.

ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT…MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS… BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS…GAMES AND BOOKS…
TOILETRIES…A BATTERY POWERED RADIO…A CELL PHONE…FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES…A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON…PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION…COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES…AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER…
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS…SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS…COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS…INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE…THE GROCERY
STORE…OR THE GAS STATION…DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. BOAT
OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE BEST
STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE…BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED
WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR
OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF
YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME…AND DO SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

..PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS…
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS  UP TO
27 PERCENT. ALSO…THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 75 PERCENT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN MONDAY MORNING.

..WINDS AND SEAS…
AS TROPICAL STORM EARL MOVES CLOSER…THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. EAST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AND WILL BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS ACROSS
THESE WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 8 TO 12
FEET OR GREATER…WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE ADJACENT NEAR
SHORE WATERS.

$$

RM

WWWW

Hi everybody! Earl is getting stronger by the hour. He is now at 100 MPH and climbing. He could reach cat 4 later in the forecast. As of this writing, Earl is bearing down on the Leeward Islands. The system could affect areas as far west as Puerto Rico or even farther. The US Southeast coast is not completely out of the woods at this time. Although the forecasts all call for the recurve, we still need to watch very carefully as cyclones have a mind of their own and can almost anything they want. This turn is dependent on the evolution of a 500 mb trough moving off the northern US.

Today also marks the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Today, the city has made a remarkable recovery from the disaster 5 years ago. Our only hope is that Mother Nature never delivers such an evil spirit to our shores again.

Interactive Coverage         Full Classic Coverage      Model Runs         Storm Tracker Satellite          Local Statements

 

 

Hi everybody. Earl continues to move just north of due west. In the next day or so, Earl should begin to move more to the west northwest and then northwest in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This forecast track is continually being shifted to the left as it has again this advisory. New at 11…..tropical storm watches are now in place for the southern Bahamas. In addition, hurricane warnings are out for parts of Puerto Rico as the system travels farther west then initially expected. Earl continues to strengthen as it races across the Atlantic.The eye has become well defined on visible satellite. The minimum pressure is down to 960MB. Earl is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Earl should remain a major hurricane for most of the forecast period.

Earl is expected to turn NW in the next day or so in response finding the western edge of the ridge. Earl will then ride along the edge of the edge and is eventually forecast to turn more north in response to a trough moving off the US eat coast. The model guidance and track has shifted again to the west. The forecast track is about in the middle of the model guidance solutions.

This is a good time to remind everyone that the NHC average track forecast errors are 200 to 300 miles at days 4 and 5 of the forecast period. Given the uncertainties, it is still too soon to determine what areas of the east coast might have a direct impact from Earl. It is imperative to track this system and stay abreast of each and every advisory. This includes everybody along the east coast from Florida to Maine. Especially from the Carolinas north.Earl is a dangerous storm and all interests should monitor him carefully. If you live in the Caribbean area of the northern Leeward Islands or Puerto Rico, your preperations should be almost completed.

  

Local Statements    Full Classic Coverage   Earl Latest Model Runs    Storm Floater Satellite        Puerto Rico Digital Doppler

Hi everybody. Hurricane Earl may have a significant impact on the Mid Atlantic coast. The track forecast takes the system dangerously close to to both the outer banks and to parts of the northeast. The cyclones timing in coordination with a trough moving off the east coast is going to be crucial in how much effect the hurricane is going to have on the Mid Atlantic. If the cyclone moves too fast, it will beat the trough and in this scenario, we could see a life changing event up and down the east coast. If the trough moves off the east coast before Earl strikes, it will push him out to sea and farther off shore which would limit the impacts of the storm. This is a serious situation and people along the Eastern Seaboard should get ready for the potential of high winds and heavy rain. As of 11 PM, Earl is still a category 4 hurricane. The area that nay be affected has not seen a major storm in some time. These areas do not have the supplies or the building codes to handle this type of storm. I urge all residents in the area from the Carolinas north to start getting a hurricane plan in place. As for Fiona, I am not too concerned about her because she will most likely be ripped apart by Earl. If anybody has relatives in the coastal Mid Atlantic region, be sure to inform them to watch this system carefully.

On the forecast track, the Outer Banks and Cape Cod will have the closest brush with this system.

  

Interactive Updates     Classic Full Updates    Storm Floater Satellite     Earl Model Tracks

 

 

Hi everybody. Hurricane Earl is holding his own and could possibly get stronger before starting to weaken later in the forecast period. I have good news and potential bad news for the Mid Atlantic region. The good news…it seems more likely that Earl will remain offshore and just bring tropical storm conditions to the Carolinas and the Cape. The bad news is that Fiona is catching up to Earl and her influence could bump Earl farther West. If this happens, then all bets would be off for the offshore scenario and Earl could come closer to the US mainland then planned. With this uncertainty, it is important for residents along the upper Eastern Seaboard to carefully watch the progress of Earl and heed action if instructed to do so. As for Florida, we are going to be fine this time around. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued for parts of the US coast later today. Watches are already in effect for parts of the Bahamas. Fiona will not be a concern as Earl will most likely cause it to dissipate.

 

 

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Hi everybody. Earl is still holding on strong and is showing signs of completing an eywall replacement cycle. The pressures are low and the shear is low. The ocean water is unusually warm. In fact, the 80 degree ocean temps go all the way up to Virginia. Even the ocean temps at the New Jersey area is unusually warm for this time of year. The storm has plenty of fuel to keep it going strong. The final track will be determined by where the trough is at the time Earl approaches the coastal areas. This storm could be a storm of historic proportions. If you know anybody or are a resident of anywhere from Cape Hatters to New England, you need to have an emergency plan in place and be ready to implement it on a dimes notice. This is the time I have to say to listen to local government agencies for local evacuation information and storm surge information.

Interactive Updates     Classic Full Updates    Storm Floater Satellite     Earl Model

 

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Hi everybody. Earl has been downgraded to a cat 3 storm at this time but remains a major hurricane. The track has again shifted West as it has been doing almost every advisory. Fiona is now getting stronger and her winds are now at 60 MPH. The only thing that will or can save the East Coast from a major blow is the trough in the center of the country. That is what might kick Earl out to sea and keep him off the coast. This is a critical timing event. There are lots of uncertainties and that is why a good part of the coast will be under watches and warnings. Fiona should not affect the mainland US.

Invest 98 is also now out there. This invest has a 60% chance of development and is taking a westerly course towards the Caribbean.

Some global models are now taking Earl directly on shore in both the Cape and in Massachusetts. Everyone in the path needs to be ready to prepare or evacuate.

Evacuations are underway in parts of Cape Hatteras and will most likely be soon extended. Long Island, NY may soon be under evacuation orders.

  

Interactive Updates     Classic Full Updates    Storm Floater Satellite     Earl Model Tracks

 

Hi everybody. Just a quick update. The ridge that has been steering Earl has been moving east. This will increase the chances of Earl taking the farther east track, but no guarantees. Depression 9 has formed and it could track farther West then all the other storms so it will be something to watch carefully. The peak of season is here folks. The parade has started.

Hi everybody. Earl continues to surprise and do his own thing. In a period where we might of expected some weakening, he is getting stronger. He is now a category 4 hurricane at 135 MPH. In addition, the track has again shifted west. North Carolina and Massachusetts are under the gun along with Long Island at high risk, especially if the track turns more west again. It should be noted that you cannot focus on the centerline. If you live in the cone, you need to prepare for the worst. The storm is large and will affect a much larger area. Hurricane watches extend all the way up the coast to Nantucket. Earl is a large hurricane and hurricane force winds extend out to 90 miles from the center.

Earl is a dangerous storm that is getting more and more likely to have an impact on the coast.If you live in the affected region, tune to local radio and TV and follow your local governments orders. If you are asked to evacuate, please do so. If you don’t have a hurricane plan, get one and right away. Folks in this part of the country are not as used to storms as we are in the south and may not realize the dangers that they pose. Earls is still forecast to begin to recurve in response to the trough coming from the Mid West but the timing is till unknown. It is imperative to follow all evacuation orders as quickly and safely as possible.

 

Interactive Updates     Classic Full Updates    Storm Floater Satellite     Earl Model Tracks

Hi  everybody and good morning! The tropical Atlantic looks more like November then October. This will significantly reduce our chances at getting a tropical system on our doorstep. The only game in town is Otto. Otto is actually a subtropical system and not a true tropical storm. It is going harmlessly out to sea and will not affect any land areas. In addition, we are officially into the Florida dry season. The heavy rains from afternoon thunderstorms will be greatly limited to fronts moving through the area. With the dry air also comes cooler temperatures. Right now at 10:30 the temperature is an astonishing 73 degrees. Time to open those windows everybody! Otto may well be the last of the tropical systems, but that can not be certain as the season lasts through November 30. Interactive Update Information 

 

 

Hi everybody!! Paula has now been downgraded to a Tropical Storm and will in all likelihood soon dissipate. Some heavy rain showers can be expected in the Keys and southern Florida. The big weather story will be in the North East where the first Nor Easter is beginning to take shape. We could see winds as high as 50 MPH in Boston and 60 MPH in Portland Maine. If you live in this region, you should prepare as though you were getting a tropical storm, since that is what you will be experiencing. Power outages will be likely along with flooding from the heavy rains.

Follow the NE Rains at our sister site   http://www.massachusettsradar.com/

Interactive Update Information       Classic  Update Information         Latest Models

Hi everybody. We are now tracking Depression 19. As with the other systems so far this year, there is no threat to Florida. The system is not expected to get very strong and should remain in the Caribbean. Again we can thank a ridge forming over our area to block the system from moving north towards Florida. It will simply be something to track.

 

Interactive Update Information       Classic  Update Information         Latest Models

In addition, we have added a new domain to our family. FloridaKeysRadar.com . The site will eventually have visitor information for the Florida Keys area.  The url to the site is  http://floridakeysradar.com/ . Enjoy!! 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Even though we are celebrating Halloween, a tropical cyclone is lurking in the Caribbean . Hurricane Tomas is bringing heavy rains and devastation to the Windward Islands. The storm threatens to hit areas such as Haiti and Jamaica. Data from NOAA aircraft indicate that the cyclone is getting better organized. We could see a major late season hurricane later this weekend. Tomas is expected to be steered by a ridge that will build to the north of the cyclone. This should steer the system to the west. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to erode and allow for more of a NW movement. There is not high confidence in the track later in the forecast period so all the Caribbean islands should monitor this storm carefully. There is currently no threats to the US.

Have a Happy and safe Halloween everybody. Although there is no current threat to us, keep posted on the latest track and models. The models are usually updated about 2-3 times a day on the site.

 

Interactive Update Information       Classic  Update Information         Latest Models





 

 

The seasonal hurricane forecasters get an attaboy this year for saying 2010 was going to be an active hurricane season in the Atlantic. The graphic below shows the tracks of all the 2010 tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, and it clearly depicts an active season. Although many tropical cyclones formed in the deep tropics, several recurved over the open waters of the Atlantic well before nearing the U.S. mainland. 2010 Atlantic Track Chart There were nineteen named storms this year. Since records began in 1851, there have only been four other seasons with as many or more named storms. There were 19 in 1887, 21 in 1933, 19 in 1995, and 28 in 2005. Some storms were obviously missed in the old days, but since the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1944) there have only been two years with the same or greater number of named storms. Twelve hurricanes occurred in 2010. The historical record shows that only three seasons have had as many or more hurricanes: 1887 with 12, 1969 with 12, and 2005 with 15. During the recon era, two of those seasons had as many or more hurricanes. There were five major hurricanes during this season. Some major hurricanes were obviously missed prior to the recon era. Only seven seasons (1950, 1955, 1961, 1964, 1996, 2004, and 2005) have had more than five major hurricanes during the recon era. Of course, it is not only about the numbers. What really counts is where the tropical cyclones make landfall and the impacts on land. As far as the United States is concerned, no hurricanes made landfall. In fact, only one tropical storm (Bonnie) made landfall in the U.S. this year (Tropical Storm Hermine came close to making a landfall in the U.S. but officially made landfall just south of Brownsville, TX). And the U.S. has now gone five consecutive years without a major hurricane landfall. Since 1900, that has only happened two other times (1901-1905 and 1910-1914). It should be noted that since 1900, the U.S. has never gone six consecutive years without a major hurricane landfall.

Hi everybody. Hurricane season ends in 3 days with very little fanfare. Our friends at Hurricane City are having their end of season broadcast on November 30th at 8 PM. We invite you to join in on the show. You can access the live feed right here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Hurricane_City_Live_Video.html . It should be a good show with a rundown on the season and a preview of the season to come in 2011. I would like to thank everybody for your continued support for the past 10 years. We look forward to serving you for another 10 years. November 30 will be the last day that a tropical update will be issued in 2010. Hurricane season resumes on June 1, 2011.

We will continue to keep you informed of important weather events throughout the winter including severe weather and freeze related events. We invite you to refer your friends to our e mail group. See you in 2011!

                                                                                                                                     Joe

 

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Hi everybody. A freeze watch is in effect for our area for Monday night. Tonight, expect temperatures to dip into the upper 30′s to low 40′s. Tomorrow night, temperatures will hover near the freezing mark. Preperations for tender plants and pets may be necessary if warnings are issued.

FLZ047-054-060945-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MELBOURNE…PALM BAY…VERO BEACH
337 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

..FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING…

TONIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S…EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 40S
ALONG THE COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 32 TO 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT…CLEAR…COLDER. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS 21 TO 24.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

$$

FLZ058-060945-
OKEECHOBEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OKEECHOBEE
337 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

..FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING…

TONIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 31 TO 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT…CLEAR…COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL
READINGS 23 TO 26.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40.
SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

$$

FLZ059-064-060945-
ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND
337 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

..FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING…

TONIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S…EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 40S
ALONG THE COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS 32 TO 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT…CLEAR…COLDER. LOWS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. WIND CHILL READINGS 22 TO 25.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

Hi everybody. Freeze warnings have been issued for most of Florida including the Treasure Coast. The coldest air of the season is moving in and steps should be taken to protect plants and pets. In addition, exposed water pipes coming into the house should be protected as well. In addition to tonight, a freeze watch is in effect for tomorrow night. At 11 AM, temperatures have failed to creep any higher then 54 degrees.

 

…Freeze warning in effect from 3 am to 9 am EST Tuesday…
…Freeze watch in effect from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning…

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a freeze
warning…which is in effect from 3 am to 9 am EST Tuesday morning.

In addition…a freeze watch has been issued and is in effect
from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

A strong high pressure system over the central United States will
keep elevated northwest winds over central Florida…ushering in
the coldest air so far this season into the area. Freezing
temperatures are expected across much of east central Florida late
tonight into Tuesday morning…lasting for multiple hours.

Minimum temperatures are expected to reach into the low 30s over
much of the area with upper 20s possible over rural interior
locations. The only exception to these freezing temperatures will
be directly along the coastline of the Brevard and Treasure Coast
counties where minimum temperatures are expected to reach the mid
30s. North to northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph are forecast as
well…so wind chills in the 20s can be also expected area-wide
by sunrise on Tuesday.

Then…similar freezing temperatures are also likely to occur late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with a freeze watch
currently in effect.

Precautionary/preparedness actions…

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are likely.
These conditions can kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.

 

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Hi everybody. The freeze warning remains in effect for tonight with a freeze watch in effect for tomorrow night. Freezing or near freezing temperatures are expected tonight with a similar scenario tomorrow night. Take step[s to protect your delicate plants and be sure to keep your pets indoors tonight. You can go HERE to get all the latest forecasts and warnings for your specific city.

FREEZE WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 0916 GMT Dec 05 2010
Warning Expiration:

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...USHERING IN
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON INTO THE AREA. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...LASTING FOR MULTIPLE HOURS.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 30S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH UPPER 20S POSSIBLE OVER RURAL INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THESE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST
COUNTIES WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
30S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH ARE FORECAST AS
WELL...SO WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.
THEN...SIMILAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FREEZE WATCH
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/SHARP

Hi everybody. The temperature at my weather station in Port St Lucie reached a low of 29 this morning at around 6 AM. Freezing temperatures are again expected tonight. Clear skies and light winds will allow for a rapid drop in temperatures after sunset. Temperatures in areas closer to 95 could see temps in the 20′s while areas closer to the coast will see temps in the very low 30′s. Protection for your plants will again be necessary tonight.Please be sure to keep pets indoors this evening. If you use space heaters, please use with extreme caution to prevent fires. You can get the forecast and information about warnings at Hurricane Central. You can find your forecast by zip code.

FREEZE WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 1417 GMT Dec 06 2010
Warning Expiration:

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING FROM THIS MORNING HAS EXPIRED...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...LASTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP AFTER
SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH LOW 30S EXPECTED OVER URBAN AREAS
AND ALONG THE COAST. ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE BREVARD AND
TREASURE COASTS...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
THESE CONDITIONS CAN KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
FIRES IN RESIDENCES POSE THE GREATEST THREAT TO LIFE DURING
FLORIDA COLD WEATHER OUTBREAKS. KEEP FLAMMABLE MATERIALS SUCH AS
NEWSPAPERS OR CLOTHING AWAY FROM PORTABLE HEATERS. ENSURE SMOKE
AND CARBON MONOXIDE DETECTORS ARE WORKING PROPERLY...ESPECIALLY
WHEN SLEEPING.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK

 

 

Hi everybody. The coldest air of the season is bearing down on the Sunshine State. Freeze watches have been issued for most of the state with many areas under a Hard Freeze watch. The watch is in effect for Monday night and Tuesday morning. Temperatures will quickly plunge into the 30 degree range and colder throughout most of the region. These temperatures could kill plants and crops and necessary actions should be taken. In addition, be sure to keep your pets inside during this cold period. This air mass is colder then the one that hit us last week so temps could easily get into the 20′s. Stay tuned in case this freeze watch is upgraded to a freeze warning and I expect that will most definitely happen. You can get the latest watch and warning info by zip code Right Here.

FREEZE WATCH
Warning Issue Date: 0945 GMT Dec 12 2010
Warning Expiration:

FLZ059-064-121745-
/O.NEW.KMLB.LW.Y.0016.101212T1500Z-101212T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.FZ.A.0015.101214T0500Z-101214T1300Z/
ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND
445 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN
THE COLDEST WEATHER YET THIS SEASON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AT SUNSET MONDAY NIGHT
REACHING FREEZING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR FREEZING ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN HIGH WAVES WHICH MAY TIP OR SWAMP SMALL CRAFT.
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PERSONS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING PROTECTING TENDER VEGETATION AND ENSURING PETS AND
SMALL ANIMALS ARE PROPERLY CARED FOR.

  

 

---

 

 

HARD FREEZE WATCH
Warning Issue Date: 0945 GMT Dec 12 2010
Warning Expiration:

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-141-144-147-121745-
/O.NEW.KMLB.LW.Y.0016.101212T1500Z-101212T2300Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.HZ.A.0005.101214T0500Z-101214T1300Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...
SANFORD...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...
VERO BEACH...OKEECHOBEE...DAYTONA BEACH...CLERMONT...TITUSVILLE
445 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2010
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS EVENING...
...HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING. A HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN
THE COLDEST WEATHER YET THIS SEASON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AT SUNSET MONDAY NIGHT
REACHING FREEZING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S
ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS SOUTH TO SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN HIGH WAVES WHICH MAY TIP OR SWAMP SMALL CRAFT.
A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PERSONS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
INCLUDING PROTECTING TENDER VEGETATION AND ENSURING PETS AND
SMALL ANIMALS ARE PROPERLY CARED FOR.

 

 

  

 

  

 

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Hi everybody. a Hard Freeze warning has been issued. A hard freeze warning means that temperatures are expected to fall significantly below freezing for an erxtended period of time. This will result in the destruction of many crops and ornamental plants. Protect any sensitive ornamental plants with cloth coverings. Do No USE Plastic! If you must use plastic, the plastic sheets have to tented so the plastic material does not touch the plant. This is one of the coldest snaps we have seen in many years, especially this early in the Winter. There is a freeze watch in effect for tomorrow night as well. Tomorrow, temperatures are expected to again fall below freezing, althouggh not quite as cold as tonight! For the latest warnings and forecast by zipcode, go here.

HARD FREEZE WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 0827 GMT Dec 13 2010
Warning Expiration:

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EST TUESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EST TUESDAY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9
AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE COLDEST WEATHER YET THIS SEASON WILL OCCUR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL AT SUNSET TONIGHT
REACHING FREEZING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
INLAND...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR OVER THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
ALSO...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM UNTIL 6
PM. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30
MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN HIGH WAVES WHICH MAY TIP OR SWAMP SMALL CRAFT.
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
JP

 

Hi everybody. The HARD FREEZE warning remains in effect and is expanded to include Metro Palm Beach. Temps in this area are expected to fall to 22 to 28 degrees after 11 PM. The impacts of this freeze is expected to be very damaging to plants, pets and agriculture. Precautions should be taken. Be sure you use space heaters carefully.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
454 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-132300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
454 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

…DAMAGING FREEZE TONIGHT…
…VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILL CONDITIONS TONIGHT…

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

…HIGH WIND IMPACT…
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 9 AM UNTIL 6
PM. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30
MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER FROM MID MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. THESE
WINDS WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON LARGE BODIES
OF WATER. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP WAVES WILL
SWAMP OR TIP SMALL BOATS.

…EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT…
WIND CHILL FROM VERY COLD AIR COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT WINDS NEAR
TO ABOVE 10 MPH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
READINGS AS LOW AS THE LOWER 20S ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN AREAS WITH MID 20S SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE FOUR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE MAINLAND AREAS OF THE
TREASURE COAST.

MAKE SURE TO DRESS WARMLY IF VENTURING OUTSIDE. RESIDENTS SHOULD
TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF POSSIBLE TO PROTECT COLD
SENSITIVE PLANTS. PLAN TO KEEP SMALL PETS INDOORS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION…FOLLOW ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WHEN USING SPACE HEATERS.
MANY HOME FIRES HAVE OCCURRED FROM THE IMPROPER USE OF PORTABLE
HEATERS.

…WIND AND SEA IMPACT…
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE…AND BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KNOTS BEYOND 20 MILES. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE FREQUENT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS.

…FIRE WEATHER IMPACT…
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE OUTBREAK OF VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ARE EXPECTED OVER A RATHER LARGE
AREA. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH…HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY SEE HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

 

 

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Hi everybody. We have some changes to the cold weather event. The temperatures are now forecast to be even lower then previously forecast. We are looking at solid 20′s tonight even low 20′s in some areas. In addition, the Freeze Watch for tomorrow night has been upgraded to a Hard Freeze Watch tomorrow night. Temperatures are again expected to be in the mid 20.s for  a second solid night. Please adjust any plant protection you are doing accordingly.

FLZ054-059-141030-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…VERO BEACH…FORT PIERCE
327 PM EST MON DEC 13 2010

..LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING…
..WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY…
..HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EST TUESDAY…
..HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING…

TONIGHT…CLEAR. QUITE COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20S…EXCEPT IN THE
UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO 10 TO 15
MPH. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS 12 TO 15.
TUESDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT…CLEAR. VERY COLD. LOWS IN THE MID 20S…EXCEPT
UPPER 20S ALONG THE COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY…SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70.
THURSDAY NIGHT…CLEAR…MILDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

 

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Hi everybody. A hard freeze warning is again in effect for tonight. Last nights temperature went down to a near record 28 degrees last night. The temperatures stayed below freezing for over 6 hours. Tonight promises almost the same. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 20′s with low 20′s in normally colder areas. by the weekend, our temps should begin to reach more normal criteria.

HARD FREEZE WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 1349 GMT Dec 14 2010
Warning Expiration:

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
8 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
8 AM EST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...REACHING
FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW RURAL INTERIOR SPOTS AS LOW AS THE
LOW 20S. WHILE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INLAND...NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE BARRIER ISLANDS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
&&
$$
WEITLICH

 

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Hi everybody. All freeze warnings are cancelled. We are still under a freeze watch for tonight but I do not see a significant freeze event again tonight. We are only under a watch. No warnings have been issued as of now. If warnings are issued, I will update accordingly. We will be looking at more normal temperatures by the weekend with highs in the upper 70′s.

 

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Hi everybody. Merry Christmas to all. Although we are not going to see a White Christmas, we are going to again get the chill. Freeze watches have been issued for our region for Sunday night and Monday morning. We may also see the same scenario for Monday night. Precautions will again be necessary to protect plants and pets during this cold weather period.

Issued at: 4:24 AM EST 12/25/10, expires at: 6:00 AM EST 12/26/10

Freeze watch in effect from late Sunday night through Monday morning,
The NWS in melbourne has issued a freeze watch, which is in effect from late Sunday night through Monday morning.
A strong cold front will sweep through east central Florida late tonight into early Sunday. Behind this front, a windy and much colder air mass will overspread east central Florida Sunday and sunday night. Low temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 20s over rural interior sections by Monday morning, and near 30 to the lower 30s across the metro areas.
Additionally, west winds will stay up near 10 mph through the late night hours and produce low wind chill readings in the lower to mid 20s across much of the area by daybreak on Monday.
Persons in east central Florida should take precautions for the upcoming cold weather.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

 

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Hi everybody. The blizzard conditions in the North East are finally abating but travel in that part of the country is almost impossible as workers scramble to clear roads, railroads and airports. Although not as extreme, we are in for another cold night with temperatures at or below freezing. Precautions to protect plants and pets should be completed today. Tonight will be colder then last night where the temperature reached just to the freezing mark. in addition, the dry vegetation is creating an extreme fire hazard as such, a Red Flag Warning and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect as well.

FREEZE WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 1422 GMT Dec 27 2010
Warning Expiration:

...FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS EXPIRED...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY...
*FOR THIS MORNING...AS OF 9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR ABOVE 32
 DEGREES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
 TOWARD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AS NORTHWEST
WINDS DECREASE TO 5 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT...AND EARLIER IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER SHELTERED LOCATIONS...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S OVER MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. SHELTERED RURAL INTERIOR
LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWS IN THE MID 20S WITH A HARD FREEZE...WHILE
THE BARRIER ISLANDS WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 TO THE LOWER 30S...EXCEPT
THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN COASTAL MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES.
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE
UPCOMING COLD WEATHER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. ALSO REMEMBER TO BRING IN PETS OR MAKE SURE
THEY HAVE A WARM PLACE TO STAY IF THEY MUST REMAIN OUTDOORS.
&&
$$

RED FLAG WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 0954 GMT Dec 27 2010
Warning Expiration:

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S DUE TO A
VERY DRY AIR MASS. ALSO...NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTY
WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY...BUT LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24 TO
96 HOURS. PLEASE MONITOR UPCOMING FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST FIRE
WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
$$

 

 

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Hi everybody. A freeze warning has again been issued for tonight. Last night, the temperature dropped to a record 29 degrees here at the weather station and hit degrees in Daytona to set a new record low. A freeze warning is again issued for tonight. We have at least one more night of the chilly temperatures. Keep those covers on the plants and be sure to protect your pets and keep them inside again tonight.

FREEZE WARNING
Warning Issue Date: 1315 GMT Dec 28 2010
Warning Expiration:

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S THROUGH 10 AM.
A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINUING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY. PERSONS IN
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE COLD WEATHER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. ALSO REMEMBER TO BRING IN PETS OR MAKE SURE
THEY HAVE A WARM PLACE TO STAY IF THEY MUST REMAIN OUTDOORS.
&&
$$
MOSES

 

 

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Hi everybody. Yet another major blizzard is on the way for the North east. Right now, the deep south is being hit with freezing rain and snow. Flights will most likely be cancelled or delayed in this regiion as the storm passes. Travel will be affected when the southern storm merges with the storm in the Plains. It could again take days to get everything back to normal. The deep south is for the most part closed for business today and the same will most likely go fo the northern states tomorrow. If you are travelling over the next few days, check your flights before going to the airport so you do not spend hours waiting for nothing. To follow the storm as it materializes tomorrow, here are the links.

New York and New Jersey   http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/10/another-northeast-blizzard-on-the-way/

New England area including Boston  http://www.massachusettsradar.com/

 

No travel concerns here as we will enjoy sunny skies and pleasant temperatures.

 

 

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Hi everybody. A freeze watch is still in effect for our area for tomorrow night. As of now, the low temperatures in our area are expected to be in the mid 30′s. This could change so stay tuned. All this cold air is being ushered in by a rare occurrence called Polar Oscillation. This event brings unseasonably cold temperatures much farther south then they normally would and is creating all the freeze watches in our state. This unusually cold period could last on and off the next 3 weeks. This is the second year in a row that this scenario has taken place. What is really strange is that the polar areas are actually warmer then normal. This Polar Oscillation is also one of the reasons the nation is having such an extreme winter.You can get the latest updates on the big chill by going to our city forecast page. Just go here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Web_Forecasts.html and enter your zip code to get your local forecast.

For the Northeast, the snow is on! Click here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/New_York_and_Vicinity_Forecast.html for New York/New Jersey weather and radar and go here for Boston and New England radar and forecasts. Up to 16 inches are possible in some areas. If you are traveling, call ahead to be sure your flight is not cancelled.

 

 

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Hi everybody, freeze watches for the Treasure Coast have been cancelled. Other parts of the state and areas to our north will still have to deal with potential freezing temperatures but our area will be spared tonight. It will still be chilly with temperatures in the mid 30′s.

Sorry all but the National Weather Service has now issued a Freeze Warning for our area. The freeze warning is in effect from Midnight to 8 AM tomorrow morning. Temperatures are expected to be near or below freezing during the overnight hours. It will again be necessary to protect sensitive plants and pets.

 

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Hi everybody. Tornado watches are in effect for our location. Heavy rain, tornadoes and damaging winds are possible. The rain chance is 90%.

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WWUS62 KMLB 171700
WCNMLB

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1200 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011

FLC009-061-085-093-097-111-180000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.A.0006.110117T1700Z-110118T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 6 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

BREVARD               INDIAN RIVER          MARTIN              
OKEECHOBEE            OSCEOLA               ST LUCIE            

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND…
KISSIMMEE…MELBOURNE…OKEECHOBEE…ST CLOUD AND VERO BEACH.

$$

 Local Doppler Radar

 

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Hi everybody, if you are following the storm, here are the links to follow the radar. Click here for Chicago radar. Click here for New England radar. I want to e,emphasize that is a dangerous storm situation. If you have relatives or friends in the path of this storm, be sure they are taking this serious. Power could be out for hours or days. Without the proper supplies, peoples lives could be in danger. Preparation for this storm is not much different then when we prepare for a hurricane. Remember that supplies will be limited after the storm, especially if power is out. Transportation may come to a standstill so it is important to get your supplies now.If you live in the North East, follow the instructions of your local authorities. Florida will enjoy warm temperatures and a few showers. A vast contrast to the weather north of us.

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WWUS20 KWNS 311001
SEL0
SPC WW 311001
FLZ000-CWZ000-311700-

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 600 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCALA
FLORIDA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…STORMS OVER NERN GULF JUST OFF FL COAST HAVE
INTENSIFIED WITH THE APP ROCH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH GULF STATES AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
APPROACHING 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET.  SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS SHOULD CROSS NRN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL WORK
SEWD TOWARD SRN HALF OF PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

..HALES

$$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WWUS62 KMLB 311646
WCNMLB

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 80/81
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1246 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

FLC009-061-085-093-095-097-111-117-010000-
/O.CAN.KMLB.TO.A.0080.000000T0000Z-110331T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.A.0081.110331T1646Z-110401T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 81 UNTIL
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH
80. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

BREVARD               INDIAN RIVER          MARTIN              
OKEECHOBEE            ORANGE                OSCEOLA             
SEMINOLE              ST LUCIE             

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND…
KISSIMMEE…MELBOURNE…OKEECHOBEE…ORLANDO…SANFORD…
ST CLOUD AND VERO BEACH.

$$

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Even with the much needed rains from yesterday, the draught is expected to continue in the south east. La Nina is still causing drier then normal conditions for the region. This event is going to last through June.The seasonal outlook looks to see advanced odds of above normal temperatures during the period April through June. The rainfall deficit should also mount as the season progresses. This forecast also includes the Gulf Coast states including Louisiana. I don’t have a detailed hurricane season forecast yet but preliminary reports indicate it could be less active then last year.

Yesterdays storms walloped Central Florida with rain and damaging winds almost all day. The system was expected to move south much sooner then it actually did. That was actually a saving grace for us as the system lost most of its punch by the time it reached our region. Since it passed during the overnight hours, it did not have the heating of the day to keep the system alive. Although it rained extremely hard at times, I recorded less then an inch of precipitation (0.63 inches) last night. Not nearly enough water to do a lot of good for the ongoing draught event.

 

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. The next chance for severe weather may be on Tuesday as a storm system moves across the country. We will be watching this system carefully as it approaches our region to see how thia all materializes. Stay tuned!

 

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Hi everybody. The all important hurricane forecast is out. The season has been tweaked from an earlier prediction and has actually dropped slightly. The total number of storms has been dropped from 17 to 16. Nine of these storms are expected to become hurricanes. At least 5 will become major hurricanes of cat 3 or higher. The 2010 season had 19 storms with 12 becoming hurricanes and 5 were slated as major storms. The main difference this year will be the absence of both La Nina and El Nino. We are expected to be in a neutral situation by the heart of the season. In this type of scenario, there is a better chance of a US strike since there are usually less weather systems to kick the storms out to sea.

This year, there is a 72% chance that a major hurricane will strike the US. The historical average is 52%. There is also a 48% chance that a major storm will hit somewhere along the east coast, including Florida. The historical normal is 31%.

The reason for the downgrading is because of a slight cooling of the tropical Atlantic. However,an active season is still expected.

There will be one more update when the season begins on June 1, 2011. Stay tuned!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. The all important hurricane forecast is out. The season has been tweaked from an earlier prediction and has actually dropped slightly. The total number of storms has been dropped from 17 to 16. Nine of these storms are expected to become hurricanes. At least 5 will become major hurricanes of cat 3 or higher. The 2010 season had 19 storms with 12 becoming hurricanes and 5 were slated as major storms. The main difference this year will be the absence of both La Nina and El Nino. We are expected to be in a neutral situation by the heart of the season. In this type of scenario, there is a better chance of a US strike since there are usually less weather systems to kick the storms out to sea.

This year, there is a 72% chance that a major hurricane will strike the US. The historical average is 52%. There is also a 48% chance that a major storm will hit somewhere along the east coast, including Florida. The historical normal is 31%.

The reason for the downgrading is because of a slight cooling of the tropical Atlantic. However,an active season is still expected.

There will be one more update when the season begins on June 1, 2011. Stay tuned!

 

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. With still another 7 weeks to go before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, we are looking at an early season Invest. There is currently about a 20% chance that this invest could develop into a tropical storm. The models are all over the basin so any definitive movement is not projected. If the system develops the models will get a better handle on what the system might do. Here is the link to the system. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html . After opening the page, please click the link under the map that says Invest 91L. There you will get the actual track of the system and in the dropdown box in the upper right hand corner, you can switch the views to see the satellite imagery as well as the model runs.I will keep you posted of any developments.

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Yesterdays severe weather was created by the colliding of air masses. This severe weather created hail, up to nickel size, and several funnel clouds. There were no reports of damage from these funnel clouds. The epi-center of the heaviest rain was located in the Midway Road area where 3 to 4 inches or rain fell. Here at the weather station I recorded 2.1 inches of rain. The rain came down at one point at a rate of 7.1 inches per hour. I also observed pea size hail at one point during the storm. Remember that hail and funnel clouds often go hand in hand and are frequently located in a hook echo. These hook echoes are often the area of a storm where tornadoes and hail form.

In many severe storms, we will often see cells where mesocyclones or swirling areas of air in the atmosphere are observed by radar images. Sometimes these cells form funnel clouds or tornadoes.

Tornadoes are one of the most destructive storms on earth and are hard to predict since they appear and disappear so quickly. Warnings are sometimes non existent or are late to arrive. If you hear a sound similar to that of a freight train or observe large hail, seek shelter in your homes safe space as a tornado may be approaching. Your safe room should be an area in the center part of your house that is either a small closet or possibly a bathroom. Review your emergency plans and know exactly where to go in the event of a tornado. If you live in a mobile home or you are in a vehicle, get out and go to the nearest low lying ditch for cover.

With the spring storm season and this year being a record year for tornadoes, be sure to have your emergency plan in place. In addition, stay tuned to Home Town Weather for the latest updates and severe weather warnings. If tornado watches are issued, you will receive an e mail through our e mail system. Now is the time to get your friends signed up. It is free and can save your life. Just reply to this e mail with the e mail address you would like to add and we will add them promptly. We are now 120 members strong and growing. Thanks again for your support!

Here are a couple of links I would to share. You can get Real-time weather, direct from our weather station at this link http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Weather.html . Flash player is required. You can get a fully detailed climate report at this link http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/details.htm . You can also get a fully detailed weather summary generated every 5 minutes from this report http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/daily.txt . Book mark these pages and enjoy!

                                                                                         Joe

                                                                                      CEO Home Town Weather, Advantage Computers

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. First and foremost, our prayers go out to all the people that have been affected by these terrible storms. It is rated as the worst in history. The death toll is currently at 200. There were 131 deaths in Alabama, 32 in Mississippi, 15 in Tennessee, 13 in Georgia and 1 in Kentucky. The NWS received at least 137 reports of tornadoes last night. This death toll marks the worst since 1974 when 315 people died.

The NWS believes that the storm that hit Alabama was an F5 tornadoes with winds of 300 MPH. Over  a million people are without power in Alabama alone. You very seldom see deaths of this magnitude with hurricanes. The storm that created this covered a 300 mile area.

There is a potential for severe storms here on Friday so be prepared. We will keep you posted. Please make a plan so you know where you are going to go if a warning is issued. A central location in your house on the first floor is the best place to be. I urge you again that if you live in a mobile home, leave immediately and go to a sturdy building or a low lying ditch for cover. Do not stay in the mobile home. The same goes for a vehicle. Do not attempt to outrun the tornado. Get out of the vehicle and go to a sturdy building or low lying ditch.

Stay safe everybody. If you have questions about storm safety drop me an e mail and I will happy to answer your questions.

                                                                                                                    Joe

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Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used to make life and death decisions. Information may be outdated by the time it is read. Always tune to local sources when impending danger exists. 

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. today, NOAA released the much anticipated 2011 hurricane season forecast. After 2 relatively quiet seasons, forecasters are warning coastal residents from Texas to New England to be ready for more activity then the past 2 seasons. As you recall, last year was a very busy season but because of La Nina, the storms did a recurve and stayed away from the US mainland. This year, we will be in a neutral position which may not keep the weather systems away from the coast. Neutral conditions will allow a storm more free reign and this could lead to stronger storms as in 2004.

NOAA predicts 12-18 storms with 6-19 that become hurricanes and 3-6 reaching major status of 110 MPH or higher. The ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are 2 degrees higher then normal but slightly cooler then last year. The wind conditions appear favorable to allow tropical system development. Some have been suggesting a higher risk to the Carolinas,South Florida and New England this season especially after August. The Gulf is usually the higher risk earlier in the season.

As we always say, take these predictions with a grain of salt and watch the tropical forecasts every day to see what is going on. We will always alert you as soon as a system is even thinking about getting started. You will always have time to act, that is the good thing about hurricanes as opposed to earthquakes and tornadoes.

As with any other season, you should prepare the same as always. Remember, it only takes one storm in your location to make it a “bad” season. Be prepared. It could save your life and your property.

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Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used to make life and death decisions. Information may be outdated by the time it is read. Always tune to local sources when impending danger exists

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

May 22-28, 2011 is National Hurricane Preparedness Week.  The goal of this national public education campaign is to present information about hurricane hazards and provide knowledge that can be used to TAKE ACTION to save lives at home, work, on the road and on the water.

With hurricane season approaching, please review this checklist with your family to make sure you are prepared and ready to act the next time a hurricane approaches your community. 
 

1. Discuss the type of hazards that could affect your family. Know your home’s vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind, and take steps to reduce damageto your home by protecting areas where wind can enter.
2. Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard. In certain circumstances the safest areas may not be your home but within your community.
3. Have a plan and a place to goin case of evacuation.  Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet.
4. Have an out-of-state friend as a family contact, so all your family members have a single point of contact.
5. Make a plan now for what to do with your petsif you need to evacuate.
6. Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your children know how and when to call 911.
7. Check your insurance coverage – flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.
8. Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.
9. Use a NOAA weather radio. Remember to replace its battery every 6 months, as you do with your smoke detectors.
10. Take First Aid, CPR and disaster preparedness classes.

 

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
910 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE…AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…NEAR 0
PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.  THIS WILL
BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

ROUTINE ISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL RESUME ON JUNE
1.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

 

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Hi everybody. Tomorrow marks the official start of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here is the list of the 2011 season names. Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney. Currently the tropica are quiet and we usually don’t see a lot of activity until August rolls around. As I mentioned before, the season forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt. We should, however, be equally and fully prepared every single year. Remember, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season.

Here are some of the resources we have to check the daily tropical outlooks. Our interactive site will have the latest outlooks and current storm status and is updated in real-time http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html

Here you can view the latest tropical outlook that is updated twice a day http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Outlook.html

You can view and explore all types of information on our Hurricane Central page. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

You can also check out the latest storm info on our Hurricane Central Blog http://joesdiscoweathercentral.wordpress.com/

Stay safe this season and we will keep you informed of any storms from Invests to Hurricanes.

Be sure to join Jim from Hurricane City with his live Hurricane Season broadcast on June 1, at 8 PM Eastern Time http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Hurricane_City_Live_Video.html Jim will share the areas that could be the most likely targets this season and also share some stats that could affect how our season transpires.

 

 

 

 

 

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. A freak system has rapidly formed off the Florida – Georgia coast. This area is heading towards the Northern Florida area and could bring large amounts of rain to that area. The track keeps it to our north so most of the rain will stay north of our region. The system has a medium chance or 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression. Here is the latest link to the models and also the official NHC text plus the intro to the 2011 season.

http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html  Invest 93 Model Forecast.

Expires:No;;537994
ABNT20 KNHC 011138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30.  LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND
2...RESPECTIVELY.
THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2011 IS AS FOLLOWS:
NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ARLENE         AR LEEN-         LEE             LEE
BRET           BRET             MARIA           MUH REE- UH
CINDY          SIN- DEE         NATE            NAIT
DON            DAHN             OPHELIA         O FEEL- YA
EMILY          EH- MIH LEE      PHILIPPE        FEE LEEP-
FRANKLIN       FRANK- LIN       RINA            REE- NUH
GERT           GERT             SEAN            SHAWN
HARVEY         HAR- VEE         TAMMY           TAM- EE
IRENE          EYE REEN-        VINCE           VINSS
JOSE           HO ZAY-          WHITNEY         WHIT- NEE
KATIA          KA TEE- AH
THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.
A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES
...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.
A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES.  IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY
PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.  IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.  TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.
ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.  SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE.  YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. A rare intense tornado outbreak has occurred in Massachusettes. The cities of Springfield, munson and Sturbridge are sone of the hardest hit communities. Our prayers go out to all whe have been affected by this rare event. You can listen to live scanner radio from Springfield right here at this link http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=7137 . You can also get more info from this Wiki page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_England_tornado_outbreak . As of this writing, the bad weather has cleared out of the area and the cleanup is just beginning.

In the tropics, we are watching 2 areas of interest. The first is in the northern Gulf and has about a 20% chance of development and the other is in the Caribbean and has the potential to become a storm in a few days when conditions become more favorable. Keep posted on this as hurricane season 2011 is in progress. This is a June 1 Evan that many will not soon forget.

The National Weather Service in Taunton Massachusetts is still in
the process of conducting a storm survey.  However at this time we
are able to confirm some information regarding the tornado that
passed from Westfield through Springfield and eastward to Monson and
beyond.

Some of the hardest hit areas will be classified with a rating of
EF-3 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita damage classification scale.

We are hoping to be able to provide more complete information on
path length…path width…timing…and ef scale rankings…late
this evening.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. After looking at all the stats and hearing the input from other fellow long time hurricane trackers, this year will be one to watch especially if you live in Central or South Florida. The last system to directly affect us was Faye in 2008. There is much controversy on the dry May theory, but statistics show that years with a dry May almost always show a hit of a named storm in Florida. As you know, we are suffering from a major shortage of rainfall this year which is creating a shortage of water and is also rendering Lake O at very low levels. A good wet tropical storm would actually be a blessing for us as far as rainfall goes, and that very likely may happen.

In addition to the dry May theory, we also look at the ENSO or the temperatures in the tropical Pacific. All indicators are that we will be in a neutral to possibly a slight el nino state this season. These conditions are conductive to very strong storms because the upper level winds are light. The light upper level winds allow for storms to develop without barriers. We often see storms go into Rapid Intensification mode during these conditions. You can have a seemingly mild cat 1 storm heading towards you and suddenly without warning, it could blossom into a cat 3 or 4 in a matter of hours. We saw that happen with Wilma and Katrina not to mention Andrew.

The one factor that will have a lot to do with the season tracks will be the position of the Bermuda High. This is the High pressure region that forms every summer near Bermuda, thus the name. Where this system plants it self can have a huge impact on exactly where the storms will hit. As we have found out, a stagnant high that does not move much can make storms track over the same area over and over again. An example of this was 2004.

I think that Florida will see an impact this year. It might not be a major storm, but I think we will see some impacts and have some nerve wracking close calls at the least. it is important to be ready whether you are a household or a business. Conduct an early hurricane conference and have a plan in place should a system threaten the area. Start getting your supplies now so you don’t have to shell out all the dollars at the last minute. In addition, prices may become higher for supplies as a storm approaches. Gas [prices have dropped a bit so it would be a great idea to fill up those tanks for the generator now in case the prices go back up again. Be sure to use a gas stabilizer so you can store your fuel safely all season. After the season is over, you can use the fuel in your car or lawnmower. It will never go to waste.

Please be safe this season. we do not want to see any injuries or worse because you were not prepared.

Remember that areas in the Gulf are also at risk. After storms cross Florida, they will often regenerate and strike areas of the Gulf coast with a vengeance. If you live near the coast, be prepared!

 

 

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Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used to make life and death decisions. Information may be outdated by the time it is read. Always tune to local sources when impending danger exists. 

 

 

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Invest 93 is all but a blob of low pressure with not much in the way of convection. It will pose no real threat to anybody at this time. Invest 94, on the other hand, will need to be watched as it continues to slowly gain some steam. Conditions are becoming more favorable for development. It is presently stationary but models have it going in all different directions from Nw to North To NE. The models will not get a good grip on the system until it actually develops. Regardless, heavy rain and mudslides are possible in Cuba and Haiti. Rain could also affect the southern Bahamas. Here is the link to the latest model runs generated about 10 minutes ago http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html . You can see from the latest storm floater that convection is getting stronger but the system still does not have a defined rotation http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_2.html .We will continue to watch this system carefully as it spions up the Caribbean. There is no immediate threat to the Us at this time.The system apperas to be sheared a bit from the tropical jet running west to east.

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE…CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
JAMAICA…CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30
PERCENT…OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI… THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…JAMAICA…AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Invest 94 continues to get slowly better organized and a tropical depression could form tonight or tomorrow. The system is drifting slowly north west and this trend is expected to continue. Models appear to be getting a bit more of a handle on the system and are most likely going to move the system into the Gulf. Thunderstorm activity has now developed closer to the system center. Heavy rains are occurring in Haiti, Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. An aircraft recon is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. The mission scheduled for today has been cancelled. Here are the latest models http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html and the latest storm floater satellite http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_2.html

 

 

Hi everybody. Invest 94 now has only a 10% chance of development. Upper level winds have become unfavorable for any tropical development. The system will still be a major rain maker in the Caribbean, however. There is no immediate threat from this system.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM…AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE…10 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT…HEAVY RAINS
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI…
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC…JAMAICA…AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Invest 94 does not want to go away and is now again being monitored. There is a 20% chance of development at this time. The system may bring some much needed rain chances to S Florida if the system moves close enough ton the state. The new model suite definitely suggests that possibility.You can get the latest model runs herehttp://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html 

You

cZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO… 1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA… THE FLORIDA STRAITS…AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR…BUT MAY BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE…20 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN

US DROUGHT OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM UTC THU 16 JUN 2011

THE FLORIDA PENINSULAS SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE DRIVEN RAINY
SEASON, WHICH TYPICALLY BEGINS IN LATE MAY, HAS BEEN DELAYED,
LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL DETERIORATION OF LONG-STANDING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INCREASING WILDFIRES.
IN FORT LAUDERDALE, FL, THE TOTAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION FROM
OCTOBER 1, 2010 THROUGH JUNE 9, 2011 WAS 9.32 INCHES, WHICH
IS 25.94 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.  EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY COVER MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM MARTIN
COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.  THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TYPICALLY RECEIVES 40 TO 45 PERCENT
OF ITS ANNUAL RAINFALL DURING THE JULY – SEPTEMBER PERIOD,
AND THE CPC JULY – SEPTEMBER SEASONAL OUTLOOK INDICATES
ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.  THEREFORE, ONCE
THE RAINY SEASON COMMENCES AND PERSISTS, DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT
IS LIKELY.  THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ALSO PRONE TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE LANDFALLS, WHICH CAN BRING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IN
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.  THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON FALLS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS HIGH.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. As expected, the month of June was quite uneventful as far as tropical weather goes. The month of July should start a trend to a more active scenario. There is an invest near Mexico called Invest 95, but even if development occurs it will be short lived. This will primarily be a rain maker for Mexico.

According to historical statistics, Extreme periods of dry weather in May and June often will lead to very strong Bermuda High forming in the Atlantic. When this occurs, the chances for storms coming close to or hitting Florida are increased. It is still uncertain if this will occur but it is certainly something we are all watching carefully as the season progresses.

The rainy season has finally started with the frequent afternoon thunder boomers and showers, It is often hit and miss if any one location gets a soaking of rain. Despite these showers, we are still way below our average for rainfall. It will take a good soaking from a tropical system to get our rainfall back to where it should be.

Another factor that we look at is the SAL layer or Saharan Air Layer. This shows the amount of African Dust emerging from the coast of Africa. Right now the SAL layer is quite high in the Atlantic region. This will help to curtail the development of storms off the African Coast. The sand blowing off the Sahara Desert helps to keep the air dry and makes it difficult for thunderstorms to develop.                                                                                                         

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Hi everybody! Tropical storm Arlene has formed and has only a small window of opportunity to develop before hitting Mexico. The primary threat will be heavy rains from this system. Even though the cyclone has a defined low level circulation, it remains poorly organized. Satellite images continue to show westerly winds shearing the system thus keeping it from developing rapidly. The system will approach the coast of Mexico within 48 hours and begin to weaken. There is no threat to the US from this system.

 

You can get the latest models here  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

The latest Storm Floater Satellite http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_1.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The July synopsis of the El Nino Oscillation summary indicates that Neutral conditions will persist through the fall. After that, models are indicating a return back to La Nina. A return to La Nino during the winter months will again recreate the extreme winter conditions that we experienced last year with an extremely dry period for us in Florida. This forecast is based on long term models that predict the temperatures of the tropical Pacific ocean.

Cooler then normal Pacific ocean temperatures will lead to a La Nina condition and warmer then normal Pacific ocean temperatures will lead to the other extreme called El Nino. The best case scenario during the hurricane season is to be in an El Nino year. El Nino tends to reduce the frequency and intensity of storms by creating unfavorable upper level winds. La Nina, which is a cooling of the tropical Pacific ocean, tends to allow more hurricanes to form but will often recurve them away from US or head them towards the Carolinas or Northeast. Neutral conditions mean the Pacific ocean temperatures are near normal. This is our current condition and it will often lead to strong storms with a greater likelihood of hitting the mainland US. The lack of wind shear in a neutral year will sometimes lead to storms that can rapidly intensify and gain tremendous power.

As of today, the tropics are as quiet as possible for this time of year. The only real game is the tropical wave that is moving across our region as we speak.

Have a safe hurricane season and as always, I urge you to be prepared now. Do not wait till a storm forms. It will be a mad rush at the stores and materials that you need will be in short supply. If you have a generator (and you should) stock up on fuel while the prices are down. Be sure to have a stock of canned foods that can be consumed without heating or cooling, stock up on batteries and flashlights, remember your pet when stocking up on canned food, have plenty of water in stock at all times during the season, check your shutter system to be sure all the components work and most of all, have a plan. If you do not have shutters, it is never too late to get them installed. Remember that there will be a waiting period from the time you order them to the time they are installed. If you already have shutters, be sure all the hardware components work and replace if necessary. Remember that when a storm is approaching, these supplies will be limited and in big demand. No matter how strong your house is, without shutters you are at risk of injury of death if a dangerous storm hits our region.

Should I evacuate? That depends. If you are in an evacuation zone and you are asked to evacuate do so. Trying to be a hero could be fatal. If you live in a mobile home, evacuate no matter what. If you are not in an evacuation zone and you have a sturdy structure, you may decide to stay but be sure that your building has shutters and you enough supplies to sustain yourself for at least a week.

Following these guidelines can help to save your life and property from catastrophic damage. If you do decide to evacuate, remember not to wait till the last minute. You do not want to get stuck on the road with a hurricane bearing down on the coast.

For today, enjoy the much needed rain and stay safe this hurricane season!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html .

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Hi everybody. An elongated low pressure system located 300 miles SW of Tampa has become better defined the past few hours. Pressures have decreased in the area and conditions are becoming more favorable for development. Their is a 40% chance of the system becoming a tropical cyclone. The system is moving slowly north-northeast. Regardless of development, heavy rains will persist over Florida the next day or so. We will be closely watching this system as it progresses. You can get the latest radar summaries for the entire state here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Florida_Doppler_radar_Loops.html . You can view the latest forecast models here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html . You can view the latest Storm Floater satellite here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_1.html . In the latest satellite , you can clearly see the low center spinning off the Florida coast. 

Hi everybody. Invest 98 is making a surprising leap towards becoming a tropical system. The system now has a 30% chance of development and I believe that those chances will be increased later today.  A recon is scheduled to fly into the system later today and that will help to get a better bearing on the system and will likely allow the models to get a better grip on the future track.

Right now the system is drifting South. Residents in the Bahamas and the East Coast of Florida need to watch the system carefully. Since this is a small and compact system, it can develop and potentially change direction quickly. Since it is already close to land, there is very little room for error.

I will keep you posted as this system continues to drift south and intensify. In the longer term, the Carolinas will have to watch this later in the forecast period.

Interactive Maps  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html

Latest Model Runs and Forecast http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

Storm Floater Satellite http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_1.html

Hi everybody. Depression 2 has formed just off the Florida coast and is not expected to strengthen that much. It is unlikely that it will affect Florida directly but we could see some higher gusts and rain from the outer bands as it drifts south and then takes off towards the North East. Because of its close proximity to land, it should be monitored until the NE movement takes place. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Bahamas.

The steering currents are relatively weak at the present time and a southerly drift is likely the next couple of days. There after, the subtropical ridge should strengthen and a trough to the north of the cyclone should start the east to northeast motion out of our area.

We have initiated our special Digital Radar for this event. You can view it here  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

Here you can find the latest Models and Forecasts  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

View all the latest information on our interactive storm page  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Bret has formed east of Florida. Almost all global models are keeping Bret off shore and then moving out to sea over the next few days. We may see an increase in shower activity as the system spins off the coast. Tropical Storm watches are in effect for the Bahamas at this hour. We now are in full coverage mode and all the information can be found here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html 

WTNT32 KNHC 180238
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

…BRET DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD…EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…27.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM EDT…0300 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. BRET IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH…4 KM/H…AND LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT…FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB…29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURF…LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Hi everybody. Bret has begun the North East movement and radar indicates it is moving away from the area. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for parts of the Bahamas.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
800 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

…BRET DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.4N 77.5W
ABOUT 65 MI…105 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST.  BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…THE CENTER OF BRET WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF…LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

 

Tropical Storm Bret is nearing hurricane force at 65 MPH. Brett poses no threat to land at this time and is moving away from the Bahama Islands.

WTNT32 KNHC 182056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

…BRET STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB…29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

NONE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/H…AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT…AND BRET COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES…85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS
996 MB…29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

SURF…LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. The activity in the Atlantic is getting much more active as we begin to approach the month of Auguust. Tropical storms Bret and Cindy have formed with no threat to land. Now, our focus will start farther west. We are now watching Invest 90 which has a 20% chance of becomming a tropical system at this hour. The model runs have the storm going anywhere from the lower Florida peninsula to just below Cuba. We will be watching this system for you. We are no longer activly tracking Cindy, just watching its progress to the hurricane graveyard. Invest 90 will need to be watched until its ultimate destination is known. Here are the latest forecast models

You can get a more detailed models runs here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

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Hi everybody. We are now tracking Tropical Storm Don. Don poses no threat to Florida but is a certain threat to the southern Gulf Coast, especially Texas and Mexico. An air force recon plane found a closed center of circulation with a central pressure of 1001 MB. The maximum flight winds were 45 knots. The cyclone should get embedded in a Easterly to Southeasterly flow that should steer the cyclone primarily on a NW path. The models are spread from Houston to the north and south to Brownsville. This entire region needs to watch this system carefully. The current models keep it at a tropical storm but as you know, our intensity forecasts are far from perfect so careful tracking of this system is critical.

Watches and warnings for the Texas coast will likely be issued later tonight.

For the latest information, visit us at Hurricane Central.

NWS meteorologists conducted a survey of storm damage from Holyoke to Wilbraham in Hampden County Massachusetts… The National Weather Service office in Taunton MA conducted a storm survey for the Wilbraham and Springfield areas in Hampden County Massachusetts. This survey was in relation to the severe thunderstorms that moved through western Massachusetts during the afternoon of July 26 2011. The greatest concentration of wind damage was found in the town of Wilbraham. The greatest damage was along an approximately 2 mile long path which extended from just north of Springfield street…across the Country Club of Wilbraham…across federal Lane to just beyond tinkham Road. Based on tree damage…the strongest winds were estimated to be between 90 and 100 mph. The width of the strongest winds averaged approximately 250 yards…up to a maximum width of 600 yards along Springfield Road. Beyond this core of strongest winds…moderate tree damage extended out to an average width of just over a half a mile. Outside of this area of extensive damage in Wilbraham the tree damage was isolated in nature and only involved a few trees at any one location. This includes areas of Springfield…Chicopee and Holyoke as well as Wilbraham outside of the main damage path. Tree damage in these isolated locations indicated wind speeds of 55 to 65 mph. This statement will also be available on our website…which can be found at weather.Gov/box. It will be linked as the latest public information statement near the top of the Page.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER   4…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS
COAST…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DON STRONGER…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…24.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 520 MI…840 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 480 MI…770 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H.  A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF DON SHOULD CROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY…APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON FRIDAY….AND REACH THE
TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA PEREZ IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 38 MPH…61 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL…MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL…DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hi everybody. The tropics are heating up and we have a few things to talk about. Firstly, Tropical Storm DON will make landfall tonight as a tropical storm north of Brownsville.The storm is hitting in an area that is not densely and the system is not expected to be a hurricane so rain and flooding will be the main concern there. Winds are now near 50 mph and global models are in good agreement on the track. Residents in the warned area should expect tropical storm conditions tonight.

Invest 91 is the next game player. All the conditions are ripe for this system to develop. It will most likely be our fifth named storm (and it is not even August yet). The storms name will be Emily. Some models have the storm coming into Hispanola while the GFDL has the system moving generally out to sea. We will carefully watch the model trends to see where they are headed as the Invest gets better organized. The setup appears similar to last year where storms recurved out to sea. Again, this trend can change and we will watch it carefully for you. Regardless, this Invest will be one to watch as it steams across the Atlantic.Residents in the Windward Islands will want to be ready in case this system takes off.This system will most likely be a player in your weather over the next week.

Later today we will activate our Storm Tracker radar so you can follow the storm as it makes landfall.

You can get the latest Invest models here                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

This message has been generated from the office of

 

HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html .

 

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Hi everybody. We have activated our High res storm tracker radar for Brownsville Texas. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

 

Hi everybody, Invest 91 is getting it’s act together and will most likely be a ridge runner. Almost all the global models are in good agreement in bringing the cyclone through the Leeward Islands and then into or near the southern Bahamas. Slow and steady intensification will most likely be the rule for this system The models will certainly change but it is unusual to have such consistency in a model run with a weak system that has not yet developed. All interests in the islands and the east coast US should pay close attention as this system becomes stronger over the next few days. There is a high chance or 70% chance that this system will be a cyclone within the next 48 hours.

Hi everybody, Invest 91 continues to get organized and a tropical cyclone is likely to develop over the next day or so. The storm name will be Emily. The most immediate area that may be threatened include the Windward Islands and Puerto Rico. The storm is expected to ride around the sub tropical ridge after it develops. As of this morning, the models are more in favor of keeping the system out to sea after it passes close to the islands. This is a big change from the model suites last night. This trend will likely shift back and forth until the storm develops. One thing I noticed with this system is that the models are staying amazingly in good agreement for a system that is so far out to sea. Conditions remain favorable for development and it is slated at 70%.

Click Here for Latest Model Runs

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. We are looking at a 100% chance of Invest 91 becoming Emily. The only thing that is impeding it’s development is it’s size. It is a very broad area of low pressure. In addition, it is almost split into 2 parts. This makes the long term forecasting of the system a bit confusing. The model trends have been moving closer to the east coast in the past few passes. There is a small amount of dry air embedded in the system and this is also helping to slow down the development. A recon flight is scheduled later today and in all likelihood, tropical storm watches or warnings will be issued for the Windward Islands later today.

Depending on the long term path will have a lot to do with the outcome. If the storm moves farther west then forecast. it may be sheared apart by the mountains of Haiti. If it misses the island, it may pose a threat to the Bahamas.

Because of the “split” nature of the system, rapid development does not look likely at the moment.The bottom line is that this system will be interesting to watch and since the models are showing a relatively close pass to the US, it should be watched carefully. Here is an animated suggested path of the system http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fimy:&runTime=2011073100&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1 .

You can get the latest model forecasts here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Invest 91L is one of the most confusing messes we have seen in many years. The area is so broad that it is on the borderline of being 2 separate systems. Data is still only showing sustained winds of 30 and 35 is needed for the trigger to a depression. Models runs are doing a surprisingly good job on picking up the system but one must wonder exactly which of the vortex areas is actually being picked up on. A few of the models are taking the system right into the mountains of Haiti and that would likely shred the system apart until it re-emerged near the Bahamas. The weaker the system is, the more likely it will maintain a westerly course. Because of the confusing nature of this bi-polar system, anybody that is west of the system needs to watch it carefully. The model trends have been inching for a closer pass near Florida so caution is urged.

The intensity forecast on a system this large is never going to be accurate this early in the game. Systems this large will usually take time to spin up so rapid intensification is probably not going to happen. This fact is true at least for the short term.

If watches or warnings are posted for the Windward islands, the notification time will be very short. If you live in this area, you should assume that tropical storm conditions will be present and prepare accordingly. If the system makes it to our area, it will probably be around next weekend.

Latest Storm Models Run Every 6 Hours  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Since last night, Invest 91 has finally split into 2 parts and the one section is now ready to be a storm. recon is in the system as we speak. The outcome of this run will determine if we have a storm at the 11 AM advisory period. The models continue to shift and make it more likely that we will see this system is some shape or form. If the system misses the mountains of Hispanola, it will be stronger as it approaches the Bahamas and if it makes a direct hit and plows through the mountains, it will emerge much weaker. This is still unknown and wont be revealed until the system is designated Emily. It will do a kick out to the NE but the big question will be when. A classic example of this was hurricane Floyd. It was known that it is was supposed to turn, nobody actually know when it would turn.

The bottom line…it is not yet classified BUT it can pose a threat to our region. The best thing to do is to get ready as you should be the entire season. If you have not yet done so, now is the time to get your hurricane supplies together. It is August and we are reaching the peak of the season. Threats will begin to get more common and supplies will be harder to get when a storm threatens. You should always be ready for the worst case scenario. Almost all the supplies you stock on will be used even if the storm misses.

Here are the latest model runs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The latest recon did not find a closed circulation so a named storm has not yet materialized. Conditions are prime for development so another recon is scheduled for this afternoon.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER…AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE…AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…90
PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY…
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. We are still awaiting the newest info from the aircraft to see if they have found a closed circulation. The model runs have again shifted slightly west and we are still in the primary target area so caution is still advised as we watch this system slowly intensify. There remains an 80% chance of development and conditions are favorable. As soon as we get the data later this evening, I will pass it on to you. Here is a link to the latest forecast models.

Hi everybody. Tropical storm Emily has formed and the path could take it very close to our area. The projected path will take the system down the spine of Florida. This will mean we will be on the dirty side of the storm. It is expected to hit as a Cat 1 storm at present. Remember that intensity forecasts are not at all an exact science and the most important thing to remember is that we are in the cone. When you are in the cone you should always prepare for the worst case scenario, even if it does not materialize. If you do not have a hurricane plan, get one If you do not have a hurricane survival kit, get that as well. Remember, if  you suddenly get a surprise intensification on Thursday, it will be too late and stores will already be running out of supplies.

We are hoping that some changes take place on the track thinking and a track farther to the east would be preferable because that would keep us on the weaker side of the storm. This track is following the models that have been showing this scenario for quite some time.

For the latest updates, visit Hurricane Central.

 

Hi everybody. Emily is still not that all that well organized and the outflow pattern is not that impressive. The organization has changed little over the evening hours. In addition, the forecast models have been shifting to a more NE track later in the forecast period. The most reliable models still keep the system just off our coast near the Bahamas and then moving up through the Carolinas.

The thinking is still the same for the forecast track as of this writing. The main change we are seeing in this advisory is that there is a dry air slot that is impeding the development of this system. That is probably why this cyclone is not showing any signs of getting stronger. That is good news for us because a weak storm approaching the mountains will be more easily shredded apart.Please note that although only tropical storm force winds are forecast when the system is off our coast, this should be taken with a grain of salt as the long term intensity forecast of this storm has very low confidence.

I will update any findings from the recon mission or any track changes as soon as we get them.

It should be noted that the intensity forecast shows a stronger storm on the approach to the Carolinas nearing hurricane force.

If you live in this region, you should be preparing as well.

 

Hi everybody. At 11 AM, the cyclone has stalled and may be reorganizing, Stalling is almost never a good thing. There is good news for Florida, however. The track has again shifted east which gives the storm a better chance of staying off our coast and keeping us on the “good” side of the storm. That may mean bad news for the Carolinas, however.

The system is still a 40 mph tropical storm. I will be watching the models as the day progresses as the stall may affect the model trends later today.

I will update as soon as I receive the newest information.

Full Forecast            Forecast Models

Hi everybody. At 2 PM, Emily now has winds of 45 MPH as I previously mentioned would happen. Emily has resumed her westward motion at 12 MPH. Emily will be near Hispanola on Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend out 70 miles from the center. On satellite, her presentation is improving and slow strengthening is possible. I will be checking the model runs for new trends as the day wears on to see if any major changes are noted. Tropical storm warnings are up for Puerto Rico, Veques, the Dominican Republic and haiti.

Hurricane Central

The Latest Animated Model Forecast.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

We have activated the Storm Tracker radar. The first radar on the list is Puerto Rico   ….   http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

We will be activating different radar sites as we follow the system to the US.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Emily continues to strengthen slowly as she travels across the Caribbean. Winds are now at 50 mph and she is expected to cross Hispanola in about 24 hours. The mountainous terrain should take a toll on her but models are showing a modest tropical storm emerging as it moves through the Bahamas and potentially Florida. Conditions will be very favorable once the storm passes over the islands. I have already noticed lots of people at Home Depot buying supplies. We will likely have some impact from this system no matter what the track is. We are very concerned about what will happen after the pass over the islands. The cone now extends well up the east coast and will most likely be extended further as the days go on. We could see an impact on a good part of the east coast.We are hoping for a path that will take Emily far enough off the coast so we just receive the outer rain bands. This is definitely a possibility according to some of the models. If the current forecast track holds, Florida would be spared the worst.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. At 11 PM, Emily remains at 50 MPH . She soon will begin to cross the high terrain of Hispanola. The track guidance has been shifting the cyclone left and right all day. If the current track holds true, Florida should avoid the brunt of the system. I must caution that there is low confidence in the long term track of Emily. The thinking has not changed. A trough moving out of the area will allow a weakness in the ridge which should eventually allow Emily to turn more NW and then North. As the ridging builds in back behind her, she should accelerate more to the N and NE . The Carolinas need to watch this carefully as any deviation in the track could bring the cyclone very close to that region. This area needs to be ready just like Florida.

Warnings have been issued for the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The closest pass to us will be Friday night-Saturday.Since we are still in the cone, it is important to remember that the track is only a point and you should not look at the point, but rather the entire cone.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. Emily has not changed in strength much overnight. She soon will be going over very rough terrain.The cyclone will probably not get that much stronger before approaching Haiti. After the pass, conditions are very conductive for strengthening. This will be the critical part of the forecast. The storm is expected to encounter a weakness in the subtropical ridge and allow her to take a more NW track. Later in the forecast, Emily is scheduled to turn more north and eventually NE. This track keeps the core offshore but yet dangerously close to the US. There is substantial spread in the models, especially late in the forecast period. The system as of this writing is still expected to stay offshore Florida.We will have much better confirmation of this after the pass over the mountains. If you live in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas you need to be ready in case this track changes after the pass over Hispanola.

It is probable that we will be under watches/warnings either on late Thursday or Friday as the system approaches. The closest pass of the cyclone should be on Saturday. You have a good 3 days to be ready in case the track changes. If you live in the Carolinas, you should be ready by Sunday.

Puerto Rico Level 2 Radar

Hurricane Central

The latest satellite imagery shows that the core center of Emily is running almost due west while the rest of the system is running NW. This may or could create a new center or dissipate the storm completely to an open wave. The next few hours will be interesting for sure.

Hi everybody. Emily is creating a very problematic forecast. Emily continues to track west, way off it’s forecast points. This continued westward track is going to shift the track to the west as well. We will probably see that in the next advisory or at least at the 11 PM advisory.

The system is being infiltrated by wind shear and dry air. Until the system gets stronger, it will probably continue on the westerly track. There are a few models that are taking this system into the Gulf and then have it coming across Florida from the west side. (The BAM suite)

Once this system gets into an area that has low shear and no dry air, it will not take that long for it to spin up. It is a fighter because it keeps trying really hard to wrap those thunderstorms around the center but it just can’t do it. Soon, the 5 PM advisory will be out and I will relay the changes and the possible options the storm might take. For now, remain ready because we are not out of the woods by any means yet

Hi everybody. Emily continues westward. Emily has shown some deep convection form in the center this afternoon and models are still trying to turn her north. Emily is still in an area of wind shear and that will change in the next 36 hours. Things will become more conductive for development. The track has not changed all that much for this advisory. If the system does not turn soon, the threat to the US will dramatically increase. Let us all pray for that turn.Without that turn, almost anything can happen this weekend.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody, at 11 PM Emily is moving very slowly west at 5 MPH. Her wind speeds are still at 50 MPH. Since the last report, Emily has managed to get her center a bit farther into the convection. This is temporary as she will soon interact with land and mountains. She will then begin to weaken as she crosses land. Depending on what shape she is in when she emerges will have a lot to do with her future off the Florida coast.I just did a wind analysis and IF she follows the track as shown, we would experience 40 MPH winds with gusts to 52 MPH. That is up from the 34 MPH I plotted earlier. It should be noted that if the westward motion continues for much longer, the SE US will be at much greater risk then we are now. It is imperative for this storm to turn very soon. Watches and warnings are up for the Bahamas, as shown on the map. It looks likely that TS watches will be posted tomorrow.

Visit Hurricane Central for all the links to models, text advisories etc.

Hi everybody. Emily is finally responding to the weakness in the ridge and is nudging more to the NW. The anticipated turn is finally occurring. Some of the models are dissipating Emily after the cross over the mountains. At any rate, Emily should stay far enough off the coast that watches will not be needed at this time for Florida. Good news for the East Coast US indeed. We still need to watch and monitor the system carefully until all this is confirmed and Emily has crossed the mountains. The track is basically a small update from the previous track but shows the recurve happening much sooner.The latest wind analysis I ran shows no influence from the winds of Emily in East Central Florida. The Bahamas will most likely get whatever happens to be left of the system after is crosses the mountains. Emily forecast track and models.

 

Just a quick update. I expect that at the 5 PM advisory, Emily will be downgraded to a tropical wave. I will update as soon as the advisory is issued.

Hi everybody. I am happy to say that Emily has dissipated to a remnant low. This is the final advisory unless regeneration takes place. I have a feeling the NHC will have a party tonight! Emily will go down as one of the more fickle storms of the decade!

Hi everybody. The remnants of Emily are passing just east of Florida through the Bahamas. There is a 70% chance that the system will redevelop and a recon is scheduled to investigate the system today. The track, however, keeps it off the coast and eventually out to sea. I have activated the Storm Tracker Radar for Miami so you can follow it as it passes the state.  Miami Doppler Radar

Hi everybody. The remnants of Emily have reformed into Tropical Depression Emily. The good news is that all global models are taking the cyclone out to sea. That will give us less chance of getting beneficial rains from the system. There is no threat to the US and the system will most likely never become a tropical storm.

Latest Forecast Models

Miami Storm Floater Radar

Hurricane Central

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are watching several areas in the Atlantic. We have Tropical Depression 8 which will not get very strong as it is already approaching land in Mexico. Of more concern to us will be Invest 97. As of now , the models are keeping the system to our south. This area has been getting better organized and has a medium chance of developing into a tropical system. Once the system develops, I believe that the model runs will begin to pick up on a more NW track and ma bring the system closer to the US. The Keys might want to pay particular attention to this system. I will be watching this area all weekend so keep a watch on your e mail as updates are released. You can get all your updates and tropical information here. Once the system develops, we will list it as a separate storm on Hurricane Central. You can see the latest model forecastshere.                                                                                                                         

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. I am sending this late night special advisory out due to new information. Invest 97 is expected to potentially become a dangerous hurricane. The reasons are simple. The environment will become pristine later in the forecast period. A high pressure area is expected to follow in tandem with the developing cyclone which will create an environment that will allow for lots of development. When you add increasingly warm ocean water, you have a recipe for disaster. If you live on the SE United States, you need to start getting ready in case this scenario develops. The global models are bringing this system very close to the SE United States. Once the storm develops, and it most likely will, the models will change some but not necessarily in our favor. The timing of this system will probably be around Thursday or Friday of next week. I know we are talking about a storm that is yet to develop but the conditions are there. Now would be a great time to check your hurricane kit and update it if needed. I will keep you updated on this breaking news.                        

 

Hi everybody. Current reliable models are still placing a strong system making a Florida landfall around Thursday or Friday or next week.Since we are at the meat of the season, now is the time to start getting ready for this potential threat. The good news is that we do not see rapid development taking place in the short term but, after the system passes the islands, we do see that potential. I do caution that the system has not yet developped but models that are this much in agreement usually is criteria to be concerned about. Recon will be checking this area today and more information will be available. The threat area of this system may be as far weast as the Eastern Gulf to the Carolinas. This system is very large so you must not concentrate on a single point but on an entire area that may be in the cone later in the forecast period.

My biggest concern is the anti-cyclone following in tandem with the actual storm. This can create a scenerio for rapid devellopment later in the forecast period. Please , please be sure to be ready in case this all materializes.

Hi everybody. Tropical Storm Irene has formed in the Atlantic. Irene is a 50 MPH tropical storm. Irene could become a hurricane before reaching Hispanola. Global models show that a weakness in the ridge will cause Irene to gain latitude. The strength of the ridge will determine how far west the cyclone will go before turning more to the north. The strength of the system will be controlled by how much land interaction the system has with Hispanola and Cuba. The current official forecast puts the system as a tropical storm coming onto Florida/ I will have another update later tonight.

Hurricane Central

Latest Model Forecasts

Hi everybody. Irene is maintaining a 50 MPH wind field. Irene is expected to be steered by the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, a trough moving off the US coast will crate a weakness in the ridge that will allow Irene to move on a more west northwest course. How weak this ridge becomes is debatable.Some models show a second trough moving through that will steer Irene north. With this said, there is some spread in the 5 day forecast. If Irene does not respond to the first trough then that will shift the track west more towards the Gulf side of Florida. Bear in mind that this still brings the “dirty” side of the storm in our area. With this in mind, the track has shifted slightly to the west from the previous and that will put the Keys at high risk.

The intensity forecast is going to be a real serious thing to stay on top of. How the storm passes over Hispanola and Cuba will make a HUGE difference in the finished product that hits Florida. If the system goes as planned, we will have a weaker storm approaching the state. If the storm misses most of the mountains then the chance of a major storm will be much greater. Assuming the track goes over the mountains, we will have a good rain soaking tropical storm on Friday. With that said, be sure to be ready in case this does not happen. When you have a cone of uncertainty coming right at you the best thing to do is prepare in case the unthinkable happens. 

 Hurricane Central

Latest Models and Forecast Track

Official NHC Text and Graphics

Hi everybody, Tropical storm Irene is still a 50 MPH storm. Irene is expected to take a track over Hispanola and Cuba and that is hopefully goping to keep her in check. However, overnight the center was relocated north of it.s previous location and thus the track has been adjusted to the east. The intensity forecast is on the conservative side. Right now we are looking at a 90 MPH hurricane approaching South Florida on Friday. It should be noted that Irene will be going over some of the warmest waters of the Caribbean. There are 2 outlier models that are keeping Irene on a West course to the Yucatan. This is not the likely scenerio. Please stay tuned as we track this potentially dangerous storm.

Hurricane Central

Hurricane Models and Track

Hi everybody. I just ran the latest model runs and the models are trending more towards the east off the coast of Florida. This trend woujld have to hold for a few more runs before the NHC will change the actual forecast track. If this trend continues, the risk could be shifted to the Carolinas. I stress that we have to keep watching the models to see if this trend is going to continue. If we see at least 3 runs with this trend, that would be a potential good thing for Florida but bad for the Carolinas. Keep in mind that in order for this trend to occur, Irene will most likely miss the land areas of Hispanola. This could create a significantly stronger storm heading towards the SE United States.

Hi everybody. Irene continues to get her act together and is much more symmetrical in structure then a few hours ago. Pressures have dropped and winds have increased to 70 MPH. Most models suggest that a trough moving through the center of the country will create a weakness in the subtropical ridge that is currently steering Irene. The forecast track has shifted more to the right and is extremely close to the Florida coast. The models are spread in the latter part of the forecast period as to how sharp a turn the cyclone will make. Global models have been shifting to the east and the official forecast lies just to the west of the model suites. It is still too soon to tell if the cyclone will brush the coast of Florida or spin it’s way to the Carolinas or Georgia.The cyclone should ride the north coast of the Dominican Republic and move through the Bahamas with a landfall near Cape Canaveral. Since there is still uncertainty with the long term forecast, It is not clear if the track will be shifted to the east. The models have been suggesting this all day and the track has been sifted east several times so far. At any rate, we are going to experience a tropical system and preparations should be made as early in the week as possible. Going into Thursday night, the system will be on our doorstep.Irene has plenty of chances to increase in intensity and will be riding over some very warm waters. 

All residents in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina should carefully monitor Irene. This is especially true since the intensity forecast will be hard to pinpoint. The current track and intensity would bring 75 MPH winds to the Treasure Coast.

Hurricane watches are up for the Central Bahamas. I would not be surprised to see watches issued for parts of Florida tomorrow. Puerto Rico radar is down so we have to rely on satellite to monitor the cyclone.

If you live in the above listed areas, you should begin preparations immediately! If you have not done so, start this week. Be sure to get your supplies including food, medicine, pet supplies, fuel, a generator, plenty of water and other necessary items. Remember, these items will be in short supply quickly when  watches or warnings are issued.

The latest forecast shows a strengthening storm approaching the Florida coast.                                                            

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Hi everybody. Irene is now a cat 1 hurricane and is still growing. Major damage has been occurring in Puerto Rico with power lines trees and buildings damaged. The model trend has remained east. I just ran the next model set and all the models keep the cyclone east of Florida, but some allow it to get dangerously close. With the system staying north of Hispanola, the chance of a major hurricane is increasing. The good news is that the chance of the worst of the storm staying offshore Florida is increasing and the threat to Georgia and the Carolinas is increasing. I feel good about the model trends for Florida but very uneasy for the folks in the Carolinas. Most of the weather associated with the hurricane is on the northern side. Most of the Bahamas will feel the brunt of this system as it moves through the area.The cyclone will be at it’s closest point to the Treasure Coast at around 2 AM Friday morning. We will be feeling the effects of this storm during the day on Thursday with the potential for flooding.

If you are out and about on Thursday it should be noted that in order to avoid what happened with Fay, you should not be on the road later in the day to avoid the potential of being stranded by floodwaters.

With the current track taking the system north of Hispanola, the chances of a a major hurricane are increasing, if not for us most definitely the Carolinas. Preparations for all areas from Florida to the Carolinas should begin today.  

Hurricane Central  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

Models and Forecast Track

Hi everybody.The 2 PM is out and the tracks have again shifted east. We are still in the cone but the focus will turn towards areas north of us for a direct hit. If this trend maintains itself, we will be able to breathe a sigh of relief, at least for Florida. The fact that the system is gaining so much intensity is actually helping to draw it more to the north. I will have a full update at 5, hopefully with more good news. We are still in the cone so do not let your guard down just yet. We are still 3 days out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Irene continues to trend towards the east. This continues to be good news for Florida but will spell bad news for the Carolinas. We will still have a good chance of getting tropical storm force winds here along the Treasure Coast.

I have reports that many supplies are getting low especially gas cans and water. If you do not have your hurricane kit, you will need to shop around to see where the supplies are most plentiful.If there are any changes, I will be sure to bring them to you.

Hurricane Central

Here is an excerpt from the NHC in regards to Irene….

“IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY…THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER…THE FUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS… WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL…HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN…THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS.”

Hi everybody. We have some disturbing news at the 8 PM hour. Irene is now a cat 2 hurricane and is in Rapid Intensification Mode. The track has not changed for the 8 PM update. The Carolinas is still dead center but with a storm this close, there is little room for breathing. The most disturbing thig is taht some models are showing a cat 4 hurricane just to our east. Fortunatly we are on the “good” side of the storm and not the dirty side. We will not have a definitive carved in stone track until tomorrow after Irene has left the area of Hispanola.A lot has to do with the timing of the trough. As you know, we have had a good many close calls when we were waiting for a storm to turn. Well, tomorrow will be no exception. We have one more update at 11 athen the all important 5 AM update to see if the models still keep the storm away from the coast. The model runs starting at 11:30 tonight will have the latest information from the Gulf Stream jet which sampled the atmosphere surrounding the system and beyond.

Folks, whoever gets this thing is going to take a huge hit. PLEASE stay tuned so you get the latest information. I will have a newa update at 11 when the full advisory is released. 

Hi everybody. The new forecast is in. There are no changes to the track or wind speed at this time. I want t stress that Thursday is going to be an awful day here on the Treasure Coast. Even if the storm misses us, we are going to have heavy rain, flooding and gusty winds. I sincerely urge all employers to understand this so everybody is safe. We often see people leaving jobs way too late only to get stuck on the roads with very dangerous conditions. Travel will be hazardous and we urge anyone who does not have to be out to stay home. Please note that we are playing roulette with this storm as it is forecast to be only about 80 miles from the coast. Any wobble from this track could create a catastaphic event.  The cyclone is forecast to be a category 4 storm just 80 miles away from us. That is way too close for comfort. I am urging all to take this serious and prepare. I would rather see people prepared and see the system miss us then get caught offguard. Watches and warnings should be issued for Florida tomorrow afternoon.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. Overnight, the circulation of Irene was disrupted when it pulled in dry air from the mountains of Hispanola. This has slowed the Rapid Intensification process and Irene remains at 100 MPH. She is still expected to gain enough strength to reach major hurricane status.

Since all the data from the plane flights yesterday has now been added to the models, they are in much better agreement on where the storm is going. Confidence is much higher on the forecast track.Irene is expected to stay about 100 miles or more from the Florida Coast, This is great news for Florida. This forecast almost takes all of Florida out of the cone. We still may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday and Friday but nothing we cant handle.I will be watching the tracks throughout the day for any changes but it is not likely the track will move west , it is more likely that it might nudge even more to the east.

The future track looks like Wilmington NC will be ground zero. Residents in this region should be watching the storm with extreme caution. After that, the entire coast including New England will want to pay special attention as the system moves up the coast.

For our area, expect a breezy day on Thursday with winds around 35 MPH with some gusts to 50. We may also experience some heavy downpours from outer feeder bands. This is certainly great news for the Treasure Coast but bad news for the Bahamas and the Carolinas.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. I am happy to say that the threat to Florida is all but gone. The track has again shifted east and is now focussing on areas from North Carolina to New England. You can see from the behavier of this storm that it is important to be ready at all times during hurricane season. You can see how fast that necessary items will run out in stores. With a little help from the trough moving off the coast, the weakness in the ridge allowed Irene to move farther north then expected.This gave us our good fortune. Remember it is not a matter of if but when a devestating storm will plow through Florida. Being ready every hurricane season all season is a must. If there were supplies you were not able to get because of supply issues this storm, do not procratinate on getting them. As soon as these items are available, get them right away. A good example are gas cans. These items sell out very fast and are hard to find when a storm is heading your way. Buy them as soon as stores get restocked. We will continue to watch the system for you, although e mail updates will now be every 6 hours instead of every 3. We are no longer in emergency mode. I will continue to update the blog and Facebook for those of you with interests in the Northeast or Carolinas. 

The forecast shows that tropical storm conditions are possible Thursday and Friday along the Treasure Coast. These will be minimal in nature but if the wind reaches the 40 MPH criteria, Tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued for the area. The impacts will mostly be in outer rainbands from the system in squalls. I will keep you posted if any of this materializes Thursday.

Hi everybody. Just a reminder that today is the 19th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Who can forget that dreadful day when the way we think of hurricanes was changed forever. Andrew started as a wave off the coast of Africa and was not even classified a hurricane until 2 days before it slammed into Homestead. I remember waiting the storm out, expecting the worse when I woke up in the morning only to see tranquil skies and breezy conditions. Little did I know that just a few counties to the south, a whole different story was written. Finally some of the news reports started to trickle in, including some video footage. We were in awe at what we saw.Massive destruction as far as the eye could see. Since I was helping to refurbish a K Mart store in Palm Beach at the time, I saw so many desperate people come into the store and try to get simple supplies that we normally would take for granted.Military vehicles by the hundreds was a common site on both I 95 and the Turnpike. It was also common place to see cars traveling north with no windows and some looked like they went through a sandblasting machine.

Andrew was like a giant tornado. It was in rapid intensification mode for almost 2 days. I remember the weather guys on TV had shaky voices as they forecast the track. Andrew changed the way insurers insure your home and it changed the way homes are now built. Even with all this good construction, nothing can withstand the power of a catastrophic cat 5 hurricane. If there was a such thing as cat 6, Andrew would of fit that ticket. With all the destruction, there were surprisingly few deaths from the storm.

Ok on to hurricane Irene. Irene remains a cat 1 hurricane but she is forecast to become a cat 3 major storm as she passes over the warm waters near the Gulf Stream. She is now steaming through the Bahamas and is heading toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina. She is expected to skirt the coast and head up towards New Jersey and New England. This storm has the potential to be the strongest NorthEast hit in decades. This area needs to be watching and pre preparing for this potential hit. The strength will have a lot to do with how hard the cyclone clips the Outer Banks. It is quite rare for storms to slide up the coast this far north, but Irene may be a history maker.

Hurricane Central Full Coverage

Bahamas TV Live

Hi everybody. Irene is now a category 3 hurricane and is expected to be a 4 as it passes east of us. The Bahamas are being hit as we speak. Irene will then skirt the Outer Banks and potentially be the worst hit in the Mid Atlantic in decades. People in this area need to get ready. My concern is that this part of the country is not well versed on these type of storms and they will not ready themselves for the storm. For us, we can expect some outer bands and squalls that could create winds near tropical storm force. If you are on the water, beware of high surf and rip currents plus large waves from the distant storm.

 

Hurricane Irene has again strengthened to 120 MPH. Some global models are predicting she could reach Cat 5. The outflow is perfectly established and the lungs are working perfectly. After it passes the Carolinas, the waters become cooler however they are well above normal for this time of year. It is likely the storm will remain a major storm into the Northeast. This could cause millions to be without power and extreme flooding, even well inland. They are comparing this to historic storms such as the Long Island Express. If you know somebody or you live in the North East, you need to be ready. We keep hoping for a sign that this thing will kick out to sea, but right now we do not see that. Once we get a clue if that will happen, I will update it here immediately.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. I have activated the Level 2 Doppler Storm Tracker. We will be following the storm up the coast with the long range radar. The radar sites will change as the system movews north. Here is the link for our hurricane storm tracker.

You can also follow the progress by satellite with our storm floater satellite feed.

Hurricane Irene video presentation from NOAA .. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/mlb/presentations/Web_Brief/MLB_Web_Brief.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. There is very little change in the thinking of where this storm is going. In fact, we have never seen a situation for the North East where there were no good scenarios at all. This could be a major event both on the coast and inland. Wind wise, if you are on the west side of the cyclone, you will have weaker winds then if you are on the right side of the storm. Depending on the exact track, catastrophic tidal flooding could result in areas such as New York City and Connecticut. Intensity is hard for any forecaster to predict. New England could see either a cat 1 or 2 storm. This will depend a lot on how strong the system stays while traveling to the Carolinas. Inland flooding and the potential for tornados also exist.Brian Norcross has stated that this could well be the worst weather that anyone in this region has ever experienced. Be ready folks. I doubt this will be a wolf cry.

Model Forecasts and Tracks

Hurricane Central

Hurricane Tracker Radar

Hurricane Local Statements

Hi everybody. Hurricane Irene is now viewable on radar. You can get the view by clicking on Storm Tracker Radar. This radar will be moved to follow the storm up the coast.

Irene has just completed an eywall replacement cycle. This has allowed the storm to weaken slightly to 115 MPH. This is expected to be short lived, however. It is still forecast to be a cat 4 at some point during it’s life. The track reasoning has not changed and the cyclone will pass 200 miles to the east of Florida. Because of the large size of the storm, outer rain bands will be reaching our area with gusty winds and heavy rain.

For the near future, the biggest threat is for North Carolina outer banks. The good news is that later in the forecast period, vertical wind shear is expected to start to weaken the cyclone. This may ease the intensity as the storm approaches the North East states. It is important to note that the confidence in the intensity forecast are low so caution is advised. Be sure to follow all local instructions for evacuations if you live in the areas affected.

I will pass along local warnings for the Treasure Coast as they occur today.

Hurricane Central

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY… THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT… A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

 

Hi everybody. The outer bands from Irene are churning just offshore south Florida. Some of these rain bands will create brief periods of gusty winds and heavy rain.

It is hard to determine whether Irene has gone through an eywall replacement cycle. The intensity is remaining quite steady at 115 MPH. The expected NW turn has occurred and this will keep Irene a safe distance from Florida.Some wobbles can occur with a major hurricane and that can bring trainbands over and then away from the coast. Satellite presentation of the eye is not quite as good as it was yesterday but strengthening is still possible. After 48 hours, southerly shear is going to increase and Irene will begin to slowly weaken. Because of the huge size, this process will be slow. It is still hard to determine at what intensity the storm will be in the Northeast.

Irene will miss the trough coming off the east coast so the track will take her very close to shore. In fact, the latest forecast track has been nudged to the west. The storm will impact almost everybody from North Carolina northward.

The new forecast track keeps Irene much closer to the coast and this land interaction may weaken Irene a bit more before approaching New England.

Irene is now approaching Abaco Island in the Bahamas.

Hurricane Central Full Coverage

Bahamas TV Live

Storm Tracker Radar

…MAJOR HURRICANE Irene TO STRONGLY AFFECT THE EAST COAST FROM NC
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND…

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADJUST WESTWARD AS HAS
THE LAST SEVERAL NHC TRACK FORECASTS WHICH NOW HAVE EYE OF Irene
COMING THRU THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
GRAZING THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE EXTREMELY DESTRUCTIVE WITH
MASSIVE DISRUPTIONS TO SOCIETY AND COMMERCE ALONG ITS ENTIRE TRACK
WITH VERY HIGH WINDS/STORM SURGE/OCEAN OVERWASH/BEACH
EROSION/SOUND AND BAY SIDE COASTAL FLOODING AND EXTREME TIDE
POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE WILL BE
COMMON WITH GREATLY INCREASED INLAND FLOOD POTENTIAL. REFER TO THE
NHC FOR THE LATEST FORECAST OF Irene ALONG WITH LOCAL NWS
WARNINGS/STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM NC INTO NEW ENGLAND.

Rain bands continue to pass over the coastal area of East Central Florida. They will likely increase in intensity as Irene rides east of our coast.

There are few changes with this advisory in either the track or wind speed. Irene continues to be a 115 MPH hurricane and is on course to make landfall near the outer banks.

Irene is now centered over Abaco Island in the Bahamas.

Interests from North Carolina to New England should check with local agencies in regard to evacuations and special instructions for their area.

The next complete update will be at 5 PM.

Hi everybody. At 5 PM, Irene has not gotten any stronger. She is still at 115 MPH. Flight level winds appear to have decreased slightly so we might find Irene a bit weaker the next advisory. That would be good news indeed.

The track reasoning has not changed. Irene is locked in on an East Coast hit. The main question will be intensity as she moves across North Carolina and the remainder of the east coast. She remains a monster size hurricane with tremendous power. Do not underestimate her. All residents from North Carolina north needs to pay attention to their local news media for instructions.

Irene is now leaving the northern Bahamas.

Trainbands will continue along the East Coast of Florida.

Hurricane Central

 

WTNT34 KNHC 252051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011

..IRENE STILL BATTERING ABACO ISLAND…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 575 MI…930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE VIRGINIA BORDER…
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY
HOOK NEW JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY…AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM
SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY…AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT…AND
PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES…130 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST
COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.

STORM SURGE…IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT.  NEAR THE COAST…THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

STORM SURGE…ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES…AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ABLEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE… AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY…TRIBUTARIES…AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.

SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hi everybody. The latest flights through the storm are showing a significant pressure drop. This means that the hurricane is getting stronger. At this hour, the winds have not yet caught up with the lower pressures. The storm remains as a 115 MPH cat 3 hurricane. Irene continues to spin up some rain bands along the coast of Florida and really stir up the surf. Please stay out of the water during this event. Several people were hurt when they were swept off the Boynton Beach inlet jetty this afternoon. This is only a taste of what they are going to see in the northeast.

Unless something drastically changes, this will be a once in a lifetime hurricane.

The thinking on the track has not changed and Irene remains on course to North Carolina.

Irene is on the west side of the subtropical ridge. Irene has no where to go but North. There are no changes in the track or in the watches and warnings. All models are tightly clustered so track confidence is very high.

The threat to Mid Atlantic is rated as extreme.

Hurricane Central Hurricane Coverage

At Hurricane Central, we have all the information you need from the latest track to forecast models plus media links for various affected cities and even power outage maps. Tracks are updated as soon as advisories are issued. Visit us at Hurricane Central.  Newly added are Media links and power outage maps.

Hi everybody. Irene is just 5 MPH below major hurricane status. Some weakening occurred overnight as she is encountering some wind shear. The pressures remain low, however, and she is likely to re gain strength as she moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream. She will likely be back at Cat 3 before making landfall. Irene is a large and powerful storm and will have a huge impact no matter what it does. As the system moves north of New Jersey and into New England, Irene should quickly begin to weaken as most of the circulation will be over land.

Even if Irene weakens more then expected, there is a potential for this to be a 100 year flood event.

The impact ratio is still in the extreme category for most of the North East.

Residents in the path of Irene should now be tuning to local sources for information that is suited to your location.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. We have shifted the Storm Tracker radar to Wilmington, North Carolina. This is the first region that will be affected by Hurricane Irene. We will be moving the radar from site to site in order to follow the progress of Irene. The next site after Wilmington will be Moorhead City.

Latest Storm Tracker Radar Following The Path of Irene

 

Hi everybody. At 11 AM, Irene has again weakened a bit and is now at 105 MPH. This makes Irene a cat 2 storm. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. The outer rain bands are just offshore North Carolina as indicated by Storm Tracker Radar. Topical storm force winds will reach the warning area this afternoon. One of the biggest threats will be the storm surge. A storm surge of 6 to 11 feet will affect the North Carolina area. Storm surges as high as 8 feet will affect the Chesapeake Bay and as much as 6 feet above ground level along the Jersey Shore. All preparations should be rushed to completion. When you factor the wave action on top of the storm surge you can see that this will be a destructive event.

Hurricane force winds will begin to affect the warning area in North Carolina tonight or Saturday morning.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are expected along the track of Irene. Up to 15 inches are possible in some locations.

The cyclone should slowly weaken after crossing North Carolina due to increased wind shear and cooler water temperatures. Irene will remain a large and dangerous storm all the way through New England.

Winds are now 31 MPH with gusts to 40 in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

Hurricane Central

Latest Track and Models

Oslo County Scanner feed

Storm Tracker Radar

 

Hi everybody. At 8 PM, Irene remains a 100 MPH hurricane. Irene has now made a turn as forecast to the north nortgeast. This will bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions to southeastern North Carolina tonight. Rainbands are already overspreading the area. This can be seen on Storm Tracker Radar. Once Irene passes North Carolina, she will slowly weaken. She will make it to New York City as either a minimal hurricane or a tropical storm. I wouuld say most likely the latter.

 

WTNT34 KNHC 262342
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

…IRENE TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST…TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 180 MI…290 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI…380 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH…160 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT…BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM.
DURING THE PAST HOUR…A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH…84 KM/H…AND A
GUST TO 62 MPH…100 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT THE JOHNNY MERCER PIER
IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

Hi everybody. Irene is still a 100 MPH cat 2 hurricane and is heading directly towards the North East states. At 11 PM, the intensity remains at 100 MPH. The storm is pushing a tremendous amount of water in front of it and severe coastal flooding is expected along the path of Irene. New Jersey and New York will both be hit very hard. Inland areas such as new England will experience strong tropical storm force winds with flooding rains and the risk of tornados. This will cause disruptions in power and communications.

Irene is essentially trapped and has no where to go but north. This is a very unusual track that we likely will not experience again in our lifetime. It is definitely historic.

You can track the storm on radar with our Storm Tracker. For full coverage visit us at Hurricane Central. You can get the latest storm models and tracks at our model page.  

Hi everybody. Hurricane Irene has weakened some but it is still a 85 mph hurricane. Conditions are going downhill all the way to Virginia. I know you are thinking that this is only a cat 1 storm but it is still a dangerous storm. Many of you that are not near the eye are probably saying this is not a bad hurricane, but trust a veteran that has experienced several storms…a cat 1 hurricane can cause plenty of damage and power outages. In addition surge flooding and inland flooding is a major concern. Do not be deceived by the weakening. Follow the storms path and get the latest information at Hurricane Central.

Hi everybody, we have now switched our Storm Tracker radar to Norfolk Virginia. This our next radar stop as we track Irene up the coast.

http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

 

Hi everybody. At 5 PM, Irene is now at 80 MPH and is getting ready to emerge over water. Her radar presentation is actually looking quite healthy. Pressures are still quite low and Irene is expected to remain a hurricane through New York. Irene will slowly weaken but because of its large size, it will be slow to spin down. Please stay informed at your local level for evacuations and other local information.

MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS…THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES…THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE…AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

The new track is unchanged from the previous forecast and is right on track as it is forecast.

WTNT34 KNHC 272253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
700 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

…IRENE RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN…WATER LEVELS RISING
IN THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION…

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT…2300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…36.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 315 MI…510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW
YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 700 PM EDT…2300 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT…AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES…465 KM.
A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH…WITH A GUST TO 68
MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA…AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS
OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT
OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB…28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE
BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL.

STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY
LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS…
COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND
SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS.

SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
MARYLAND…DELAWARE…AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

Hi everybody. Storm Tracker Radar is now in Dover, Delaware as we track Irene up the coast.

Storm Tracker Radar

Virginia Beach Live Police Scanner

 

Hi everybody. We are now switching the Storm Tracker Radar to New York City. Irene continues to travel up the coast as a hurricane. Nobody in the path should be out on the streets during the storm.  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

 

Seaside Heights Live Police Scanner 

000 WTNT34 KNHC 280555 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 …IRENE MOVING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST…WATER LEVELS RISING FROM MARYLAND TO NEW YORK… SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…38.1N 75.0W ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 195 MI…315 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…958 MB…28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY… NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT… A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE PAMLICO…ALBEMARLE…AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS…DELAWARE BAY…CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT…NEW YORK CITY…LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— AT 200 AM EDT…0600 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/H…AND THIS MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING…AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES…390 KM FROM THE CENTER. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH…78 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 68 MPH… 109 KM/H…WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE OBSERVING SITE NEAR NEWPORT NEWS VIRGINIA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING AS FAR SOUTH AS DUCK NORTH CAROLINA WHERE A SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH…78 KM/H…AND A WIND GUST OF 68 MPH…109 KM/H…WERE ALSO RECENTLY REPORTED. WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RISING RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER OF IRENE…WITH RECENTLY OBSERVED STORM SURGE VALUES OF 3.2 FEET AT OCEAN CITY MARYLAND…3.7 FEET AT LEWES DELAWARE…3.4 FEET AT CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY…AND 3.5 FEET AT NEW YORK HARBOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT THUS FAR OF 14 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB…28.29 INCHES. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE OBSERVING SITE AT OCEAN CITY MARYLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 970 MB…28.63 IN. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- STORM SURGE…AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD…INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE…DESTRUCTIVE…AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. COASTAL AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN AREAS WHERE THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. STORM TIDE AND SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC…AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST…INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS…WATER LEVEL VALUES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL…IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES…FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS… COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS…COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING…LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS…AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS. WIND…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING…WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING… WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE…EASTERN NEW JERSEY…SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK…AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING. SURF…LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ————- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Hi everybody. Irene made landfall at 9 AM as a tropical storm in new York. Irene still has winds of 65 MPH and is now moving into New England. Here is a list of some of the storm damage reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
613 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0835 PM     FLOOD            KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

PASSAIC AVENUE NEAR EAST NEWARK TOWNLINE CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0906 PM     FLOOD            LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/27/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

POLITO AVENUE NEAR RUTHERFORD AVENUE FLOODED. ROAD
CLOSED.

1005 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ELIZABETH               40.67N  74.19W
08/27/2011                   UNION              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG ELMORA AVENUE.

1016 PM     FLOOD            JERSEY CITY             40.71N  74.06W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 440 AND AT THE DUNCAN INTERSECTION CLOSED DUE TO
FRESH WATER FLOODING

1025 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E TOTOWA              40.91N  74.21W
08/27/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED TREE NEAR EXIT 55 ON NJ 62 AND UNION BLVD.

1025 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PATERSON                40.91N  74.16W
08/27/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PARTIAL RAMP CLOSURE ON NJ 19 AT EXIT 57 DUE TO FALLEN
TREE.

1031 PM     FLOOD            KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD FLOODING AT SCHUYLER AVENUE AT MILE MARKER 4.2.
ROAD CLOSED.

1032 PM     FLOOD            NORTH BERGEN            40.79N  74.03W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

SECAUCUS ROAD IS FLOODED. ALL LANES CLOSED AND
DETOURED.

1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MONSEY                  41.12N  74.07W
08/28/2011                   ROCKLAND           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE FELL DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 306

1230 AM     FLOOD            1 ESE SOUTH OZONE PARK  40.67N  73.80W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BELT PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1235 AM     FLOOD            KEW GARDENS             40.71N  73.83W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT VAN WYCK AND GRAND
CENTRAL PARKWAYS

1237 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WANTAGH                 40.67N  73.51W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREE DOWN ON SOUTHERN STATE PARKWAY

1240 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NORTH BABYLON           40.72N  73.32W
08/28/2011  E60 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

PART OF TREE SNAPPED AND FELL IN BACKYARD

1240 AM     FLOOD            STATEN ISLAND           40.58N  74.15W
08/28/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 278 AT CLOVE ROAD CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            1 NNW BEDFORD FOUR CORN 41.21N  73.69W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HUTCHINSON RIVER PARKWAY AND WESTCHESTER AVE CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            CRESTWOOD               40.96N  73.82W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BRONX RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            1 E POCANTICO HILLS     41.09N  73.82W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            MILLWOOD                41.19N  73.80W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TACONIC STATE PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1246 AM     FLOOD            CONCORD                 40.61N  74.08W
08/28/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

STATEN ISLAND EXPRESSWAY AT FINGERBOARD ROAD CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

1248 AM     FLOOD            BRIDGEPORT              41.19N  73.20W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 95 AT EXIT 30 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1252 AM     FLOOD            1 ESE BEECHHURST        40.79N  73.79W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

RAMP FROM THROGSNECK TO CROSS ISLAND PARKWAY CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

0100 AM     FLOOD            LODI                    40.88N  74.08W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING ON US 46 OF SUMMIT AVENUE ALL LANES CLOSED

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEEHAWKEN               40.77N  74.02W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 2 INJ *** WIRES DOWN ON 7000 BLVD EAST…2 INDIRECT
INJURIES…WIRES WERE TOUCHED

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON MAPLE AND ACKERMAN AVENUES

0133 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NYC/JFK AIRPORT         40.64N  73.76W
08/28/2011  M59 MPH          QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ASOS

0135 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E POINT LOOKOUT       40.59N  73.56W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          NASSAU             NY   MESONET

JONES BEACH COAST GUARD

0140 AM     FLOOD            CLIFTON                 40.86N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NJ 3 AND BLOOMFIELD AVE CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

0146 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TENAFLY                 40.92N  73.96W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO LARGE OAK TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE ON WRIGHT PLACE

0147 AM     FLOOD            ELMWOOD PARK            40.90N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 80 AT RIVER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0152 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGTON              40.88N  73.41W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOWNED TREE ON NY25 OF ROUND SWAMP ROAD.

0210 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

IRVING ROAD CLOSED DUE TO TREE THAT FELL DOWN

0217 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NYC/LA GUARDIA          40.78N  73.88W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ITWS REPORTED GUST OF 61 MPH

0217 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NYC/LA GUARDIA          40.78N  73.88W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ITWS REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH

0230 AM     FLOOD            UNION                   40.70N  74.27W
08/28/2011                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RESCUE NEAR SALEM ROAD AND HUGURNOT
STREET…POLICE CAR IN FLOOD WATERS…OFFICER OUT OF THE
CAR

0330 AM     FLOOD            WOODLAND PARK           40.89N  74.19W
08/28/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER UP TO CAR DOORS AND ENTERING HOMES NEAR HROMIAK
TERRACE AND DOWLING PARKWAY

0345 AM     FLOOD            BULLS HEAD              40.61N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   PUBLIC

BASEMENT FLOODING AT STATEN ISLAND HOTEL

0345 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BREEZY POINT            40.56N  73.93W
08/28/2011  M59 MPH          QUEENS             NY   MESONET

MESONET

0351 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNBROOK                40.66N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF WATERVIEW PLACE AND
OCEAN AVENUE…TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0353 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON CHESTNUT STREET NEAR BELLVILLE TURNPIKE

0358 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CENTRAL PARK            40.80N  73.96W
08/28/2011  M60 MPH          NEW YORK           NY   ASOS

ASOS

0409 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EAST FARMINGDALE        40.73N  73.42W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

ASOS

0411 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROSELLE                 40.65N  74.26W
08/28/2011                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD ON SPRUCE STREET

0415 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINE DOWN ON LAKE AVENUE

0418 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LARGE TREE DOWN ON DEVON STREET AND LAURAL AVENUE

0426 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BELLEVILLE              40.79N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   ESSEX              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON WATCHUNG AVENUE

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      41.16N  73.13W
08/28/2011  M63 MPH          FAIRFIELD          CT   ASOS

ASOS

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SELDEN                  40.87N  73.05W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STONY BROOK             40.91N  73.13W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN STONY BROOK. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRENTWOOD               40.78N  73.25W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN BRENTWOOD. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LINDENHURST             40.69N  73.37W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN LINDENHURST. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN.

0504 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ACROSS POST AVENUE

0505 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON                40.74N  74.15W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF DAVIS AVENUE AND CENTRAL
AVENUE

0507 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SMITHTOWN               40.86N  73.21W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

MAPLE TREES DOWN

0520 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
08/28/2011  M58 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   ASOS

ASOS

0527 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      41.16N  73.13W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   ASOS

REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH

&&

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0515 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MANSFIELD               41.83N  72.25W
08/28/2011                   TOLLAND            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 44 BETWEEN ROUTER 195 AND MOULTON
ROAD

0515 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BROOKLYN                41.78N  71.95W
08/28/2011                   WINDHAM            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 169 NEAR CANTERBURY LINE

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WARWICK                 41.70N  71.42W
08/28/2011                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CHESTER AVE

0636 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COVENTRY                41.68N  71.65W
08/28/2011                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND POWER POLE DOWN ON SHADY VALLEY ROAD

0643 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COVENTRY                41.68N  71.65W
08/28/2011                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING HURKNEY HILL ROAD

0649 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TOLLAND                 41.87N  72.37W
08/28/2011                   TOLLAND            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TOP HALF OF TREE DOWN ON ROBIN CIRCLE.. ANOTHER TREE
DOWN ON TWO HOUSES.

0650 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LINCOLN                 41.92N  71.47W
08/28/2011                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON SMITHFIELD ROAD

0650 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISVILLE             41.97N  71.67W
08/28/2011                   PROVIDENCE         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON STEERE FARM ROAD

0650 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FAIRHAVEN               41.65N  70.82W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

LIMBS DOWN ON DEPOT STREET

0656 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MOOSUP                  41.71N  71.88W
08/28/2011                   WINDHAM            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN ON LAKE STREET

0658 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CHARLESTOWN             41.38N  71.65W
08/28/2011                   WASHINGTON         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING A ROAD

0702 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PLAINFIELD              41.68N  71.92W
08/28/2011                   WINDHAM            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 12

0702 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GLASTONBURY             41.70N  72.60W
08/28/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN IN WIRES ON ROUTE 17

0702 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOLTON                  41.77N  72.43W
08/28/2011                   TOLLAND            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 534 AT BIRCH MOUNTAIN ROAD

0707 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW BRITAIN             41.68N  72.79W
08/28/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE AND POWER POLE DOWN ACROSS PENDLETON ST. TREE DOWN
ON PINEHURST ST. TREE DOWN ON GRAND ST.

0708 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ENFIELD                 41.97N  72.57W
08/28/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON PEARL STREET.

0718 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BARRINGTON              41.74N  71.32W
08/28/2011  M62 MPH          BRISTOL            RI   MESONET

CONIMICUT POINT

0721 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRIDGEWATER             41.99N  70.97W
08/28/2011                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON SOUTH STREET

0723 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    WESTPORT                41.67N  71.10W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

EAST BEACH ROAD ENTIRELY CLOSED. OCEAN FLOODING ROAD IN
THE AREA OF GOOSEBERRY ISLAND AND THE CAUSEWAY

0725 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    DARTMOUTH               41.57N  71.00W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TOWN LANDING – PADANARAM BRIDGE CLOSED DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING. TREE DOWN ON SMITH NECK ROAD.

0725 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DARTMOUTH               41.57N  71.00W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TOWN LANDING – PADANARAM BRIDGE CLOSED DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING. TREE DOWN ON SMITH NECK ROAD.

0727 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NARRAGANSETT            41.43N  71.47W
08/28/2011                   WASHINGTON         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON BOSTON NECK ROAD

0727 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WARREN                  41.72N  71.27W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

0732 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MOOSUP                  41.71N  71.88W
08/28/2011                   WINDHAM            CT   AMATEUR RADIO

10 BRANCH DOWN ON GARAGE ON LUKE STREET

0739 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW WARWICK           41.73N  71.43W
08/28/2011  M64 MPH          KENT               RI   ASOS

PVD ASOS

0744 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARTFORD                41.77N  72.68W
08/28/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON LARRABE STREET AND TREE DOWN ON
LONG HILL ROAD

0745 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DARTMOUTH               41.57N  71.00W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

5-6 BRANCH DOWN ON HOUSE ON COLONIAL WAY. TREE DOWN ON
SLOCUM ROAD.

0747 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW BEDFORD             41.66N  70.94W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

ALUMINUM SIDING OF BUILDING BLOWN OFF ON TO THE
FAIRHAVEN-NEW BEDFORD BRIDGE

0749 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FALL RIVER              41.71N  71.11W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN 0N 24 NORTHBOUND – AIRPORT ROAD EXIT

0750 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LAKEVILLE               41.85N  70.95W
08/28/2011                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES FOREST PARK DRIVE

0755 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    MARION                  41.70N  70.76W
08/28/2011                   PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

DEXTER BEACH AREA HAS MINOR FLOODING OF RESIDENCES DUE
TO STORM SURGE

0800 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTHBRIDGE             42.15N  71.65W
08/28/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

5-6 BRANCH DOWN ON VINWOOD STREET

0801 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FALMOUTH                41.55N  70.61W
08/28/2011                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING LUDLUM AND PROSPECT STREET… SURF
DRIVE FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE

0801 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    FALMOUTH                41.55N  70.61W
08/28/2011                   BARNSTABLE         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING LUDLUM AND PROSPECT STREET… SURF
DRIVE FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE

0805 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWINGTON               41.69N  72.73W
08/28/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE PEBBLE DRIVE

0806 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST THOMPSON                41.96N  71.86W
08/28/2011  M62 MPH          WINDHAM            CT   HAM RADIO

HAM RADIO

0810 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    NEWPORT                 41.49N  71.32W
08/28/2011                   NEWPORT            RI   AMATEUR RADIO

BOWENS WHARF UNDER 10-12 OF WATER. WELLINGTON AVENUE
UNDERPASS FLOODED IMPASSABLE.

0819 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DANVERS                 42.57N  70.95W
08/28/2011                   ESSEX              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON MAPLE STREET

0820 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LUDLOW                  42.17N  72.48W
08/28/2011                   HAMPDEN            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE LIMB DOWN

0820 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COVENTRY                41.68N  71.65W
08/28/2011                   KENT               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

TREES… POLES AND WIRES DOWN… 15 SEPARATE INCIDENTS

0821 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TAUNTON                 41.90N  71.09W
08/28/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

INGLES STREET TREE DOWN

0842 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FAIRHAVEN               41.65N  70.82W
08/28/2011  M72 MPH          PLYMOUTH           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

0931 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  EAST FALMOUTH           41.58N  70.56W
08/28/2011  M42 MPH          BARNSTABLE         MA   NONE

&&

$$

BELK

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1120 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..CENTER OF IRENE INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE…

NEW INFORMATION…
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.

AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK…
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY…SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS…NORTHERN FAIRFIELD…NORTHERN NEW HAVEN…NORTHERN
MIDDLESEX…NORTHERN NEW LONDON…SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD…SOUTHERN
NEW HAVEN…SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX…SOUTHERN NEW LONDON…EASTERN
PASSAIC…HUDSON…WESTERN BERGEN…EASTERN BERGEN…WESTERN
ESSEX…EASTERN ESSEX…WESTERN UNION…EASTERN UNION…PUTNAM…
ROCKLAND…NORTHERN WESTCHESTER…SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER…NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)…BRONX…RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)…KINGS
(BROOKLYN)…NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK…NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK…
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK…SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK…NORTHERN QUEENS…
NORTHERN NASSAU…SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS…
WESTERN PASSAIC…ORANGE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK
HARBOR.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK…
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PLEASE LISTEN
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR
AREA.

STORM INFORMATION…
AT 11 AM EDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.4N…LONGITUDE 73.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 40 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY NY…OR ABOUT 100 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MONTAUK POINT NY. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR
20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

SITUATION OVERVIEW…
HURRICANE IRENE…CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY…WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PULL NORTH THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON…BUT RESIDUAL RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND
WASHOVERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

A TOTAL OF 4 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE THE
RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. BASED ON THESE HEAVY RAINS AND RESIDUAL DRAINAGE…MODERATE
TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

NEXT UPDATE…
A MORE DETAILED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON BY AROUND 1 PM EDT.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-291530-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1120 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT…
..HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELLED…

$$

Hi everybody. The backside of Irene is now moving through Connecticut and Massachusetts. Here is an updated list of power outage sites throughout the region. Please go to Hurricane Central and go to the Irene Information area. You will see the power outage maps by area under the Media section.

Western Massachusettes Power outage Map  

Hi everybody. The final radar stop as we track Irene up the coast is Portland Maine. We have now switched the radar to this site until Irene is out of sight, Irene should soon become extra-tropical and loose her tropical characteristics. this is indeed a historic storm for the records. The east coast was extremely lucky that Irene weakened before the first landfall in North Carolina. We we saw, the weakening process was very slow until she reached New York City. This is the new Storm Tracker Radar site .

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
454 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0835 PM     FLOOD            KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

PASSAIC AVENUE NEAR EAST NEWARK TOWNLINE CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0906 PM     FLOOD            LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/27/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

POLITO AVENUE NEAR RUTHERFORD AVENUE FLOODED. ROAD
CLOSED.

1005 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ELIZABETH               40.67N  74.19W
08/27/2011                   UNION              NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG ELMORA AVENUE.

1016 PM     FLOOD            JERSEY CITY             40.71N  74.06W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 440 AND AT THE DUNCAN INTERSECTION CLOSED DUE TO
FRESH WATER FLOODING

1025 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E TOTOWA              40.91N  74.21W
08/27/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED TREE NEAR EXIT 55 ON NJ 62 AND UNION BLVD.

1025 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PATERSON                40.91N  74.16W
08/27/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

PARTIAL RAMP CLOSURE ON NJ 19 AT EXIT 57 DUE TO FALLEN
TREE.

1031 PM     FLOOD            KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD FLOODING AT SCHUYLER AVENUE AT MILE MARKER 4.2.
ROAD CLOSED.

1032 PM     FLOOD            NORTH BERGEN            40.79N  74.03W
08/27/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

SECAUCUS ROAD IS FLOODED. ALL LANES CLOSED AND
DETOURED.

1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MONSEY                  41.12N  74.07W
08/28/2011                   ROCKLAND           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE FELL DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 306

1230 AM     FLOOD            1 ESE SOUTH OZONE PARK  40.67N  73.80W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BELT PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1235 AM     FLOOD            KEW GARDENS             40.71N  73.83W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT VAN WYCK AND GRAND
CENTRAL PARKWAYS

1237 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WANTAGH                 40.67N  73.51W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREE DOWN ON SOUTHERN STATE PARKWAY

1240 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NORTH BABYLON           40.72N  73.32W
08/28/2011  E60 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

PART OF TREE SNAPPED AND FELL IN BACKYARD

1240 AM     FLOOD            STATEN ISLAND           40.58N  74.15W
08/28/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 278 AT CLOVE ROAD CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            1 NNW BEDFORD FOUR CORN 41.21N  73.69W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HUTCHINSON RIVER PARKWAY AND WESTCHESTER AVE CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            CRESTWOOD               40.96N  73.82W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BRONX RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            1 E POCANTICO HILLS     41.09N  73.82W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SAW MILL RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1245 AM     FLOOD            MILLWOOD                41.19N  73.80W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TACONIC STATE PARKWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1246 AM     FLOOD            CONCORD                 40.61N  74.08W
08/28/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

STATEN ISLAND EXPRESSWAY AT FINGERBOARD ROAD CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

1248 AM     FLOOD            BRIDGEPORT              41.19N  73.20W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 95 AT EXIT 30 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1252 AM     FLOOD            1 ESE BEECHHURST        40.79N  73.79W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

RAMP FROM THROGSNECK TO CROSS ISLAND PARKWAY CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

1255 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PERTH AMBOY JUNCTION    40.60N  74.29W
08/28/2011  M67 MPH          UNION              NJ   MESONET

MESONET

0100 AM     FLOOD            LODI                    40.88N  74.08W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FLOODING ON US 46 OF SUMMIT AVENUE ALL LANES CLOSED

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WEEHAWKEN               40.77N  74.02W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 2 INJ *** WIRES DOWN ON 7000 BLVD EAST…2 INDIRECT
INJURIES…WIRES WERE TOUCHED

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON MAPLE AND ACKERMAN AVENUES

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

ROAD CLOSED NEAR MAPLE AND ACKERMAN AVENUES…TREE DOWN
BLOCKING ROAD

0133 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NYC/JFK AIRPORT         40.64N  73.76W
08/28/2011  M59 MPH          QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ASOS

0135 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E POINT LOOKOUT       40.59N  73.56W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          NASSAU             NY   MESONET

JONES BEACH COAST GUARD

0140 AM     FLOOD            CLIFTON                 40.86N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NJ 3 AND BLOOMFIELD AVE CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

0146 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TENAFLY                 40.92N  73.96W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO LARGE OAK TREES DOWN ON A HOUSE ON WRIGHT PLACE

0147 AM     FLOOD            ELMWOOD PARK            40.90N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 80 AT RIVER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0152 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGTON              40.88N  73.41W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOWNED TREE ON NY25 OF ROUND SWAMP ROAD.

0210 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

IRVING ROAD CLOSED DUE TO TREE THAT FELL DOWN

0213 AM     FLOOD            NEWBURGH                41.50N  74.02W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

INTERSTATE 84 NEAR EXIT 7 IN NEWBURGH CLOSE DUE TO
FLOODING

0217 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NYC/LA GUARDIA          40.78N  73.88W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ITWS REPORTED GUST OF 61 MPH

0217 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NYC/LA GUARDIA          40.78N  73.88W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ITWS REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH

0230 AM     FLOOD            UNION                   40.70N  74.27W
08/28/2011                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RESCUE NEAR SALEM ROAD AND HUGURNOT
STREET…POLICE CAR IN FLOOD WATERS…OFFICER OUT OF THE
CAR

0330 AM     FLOOD            WOODLAND PARK           40.89N  74.19W
08/28/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER UP TO CAR DOORS AND ENTERING HOMES NEAR HROMIAK
TERRACE AND DOWLING PARKWAY

0331 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      41.16N  73.13W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   ASOS

46 MPH MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND

0345 AM     FLOOD            BULLS HEAD              40.61N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   RICHMOND           NY   PUBLIC

BASEMENT FLOODING AT STATEN ISLAND HOTEL

0345 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BREEZY POINT            40.56N  73.93W
08/28/2011  M59 MPH          QUEENS             NY   MESONET

MESONET

0351 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNBROOK                40.66N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF WATERVIEW PLACE AND
OCEAN AVENUE…TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0353 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON CHESTNUT STREET NEAR BELLVILLE TURNPIKE

0355 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E POINT LOOKOUT       40.59N  73.56W
08/28/2011  M64 MPH          NASSAU             NY   MESONET

JONES BEACH COAST GUARD

0358 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CENTRAL PARK            40.80N  73.96W
08/28/2011  M60 MPH          NEW YORK           NY   ASOS

ASOS

0400 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE SAINT GEORGE      40.66N  74.07W
08/28/2011  M70 MPH          HUDSON             NJ   MESONET

ROBBINS REEF LIGHTHOUSE

0407 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COLCHESTER              41.57N  72.33W
08/28/2011                   NEW LONDON         CT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WESTBOUND RAMP OFF CONNECTICUT ROUTE 20 AT EXIT 20
CLOSED DUE TO TREE ACROSS THE RAMP.

0409 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EAST FARMINGDALE        40.73N  73.42W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

ASOS

0410 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NYC/LA GUARDIA          40.78N  73.88W
08/28/2011  M67 MPH          QUEENS             NY   ASOS

ASOS

0410 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NYC/LA GUARDIA          40.78N  73.88W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH MEASURED

0411 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROSELLE                 40.65N  74.26W
08/28/2011                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD ON SPRUCE STREET

0414 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE SYOSSET MOBILE HOM 40.80N  73.51W
08/28/2011  M79 MPH          NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER

0415 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINE DOWN ON LAKE AVENUE

0418 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LARGE TREE DOWN ON DEVON STREET AND LAURAL AVENUE

0424 AM     FLOOD            WASHINGTONVILLE         41.43N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER RESCUES IN WASHINGTONVILLE. MOODNA CREEK OVER ITS
BANKS.

0425 AM     FLOOD            WASHINGTONVILLE         41.43N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NY 94 NEAR GOSHEN AVENUE ROAD CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

0426 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BELLEVILLE              40.79N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   ESSEX              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON WATCHUNG AVENUE

0427 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BAYVILLE                40.91N  73.56W
08/28/2011  M67 MPH          NASSAU             NY   MESONET

MESONET

0430 AM     TROPICAL STORM   WEST HAVEN              41.27N  72.97W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   PUBLIC

57 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED IN WEST HAVEN.

0430 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EATONS NECK             40.95N  73.39W
08/28/2011  M58 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

MESONET

0438 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTON                  41.20N  73.38W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MERRITT PARKWAY SOUTHBOUND CLOSED BETWEEN EXITS 44 AND
42 DUE TO A DOWNED TREE ACROSS THE ROADWAY.

0442 AM     TROPICAL STORM   SAUGATUCK SHORES        41.10N  73.37W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   MESONET

MESONET AT CEDAR POINT YC MEASURED SUSTAINED WIND OF 58
MPH

0448 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ISLIP AIRPORT           40.80N  73.10W
08/28/2011  M62 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

ASOS

0452 AM     TROPICAL STORM   ISLIP AIRPORT           40.80N  73.10W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH MEASURED

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      41.16N  73.13W
08/28/2011  M63 MPH          FAIRFIELD          CT   ASOS

ASOS

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SELDEN                  40.87N  73.05W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STONY BROOK             40.91N  73.13W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN STONY BROOK. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRENTWOOD               40.78N  73.25W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN BRENTWOOD. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LINDENHURST             40.69N  73.37W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN LINDENHURST. TIME OF EVENT
UNKNOWN.

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW HYDE PARK           40.73N  73.69W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

A 1.5 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN AND A 3 FT DIAMETER TREE
DOWN ON WILLIAMS STREET

0504 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ACROSS POST AVENUE

0505 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRISON                40.74N  74.15W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF DAVIS AVENUE AND CENTRAL
AVENUE

0507 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SMITHTOWN               40.86N  73.21W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

MAPLE TREES DOWN

0520 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
08/28/2011  M58 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   ASOS

ASOS

0520 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
08/28/2011  M58 MPH          NEW HAVEN          CT   ASOS

ASOS

0525 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF THOMAS AVENUE AND CHASE
AVENUE

0526 AM     FLOOD            NORTH ARLINGTON         40.79N  74.13W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME BASEMENTS FLOODED

0527 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT      41.16N  73.13W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   ASOS

REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH

0532 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FAIRFIELD               41.13N  73.28W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 15 SOUTH BETWEEN EXITS 42 AND 44

0550 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FISHERS ISLAND          41.27N  71.99W
08/28/2011  M59 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

MESONET

0557 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    FREEPORT                40.65N  73.58W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER UP TO THE STREET NEAR THE TIDE GAUGE

0609 AM     TROPICAL STORM   ISLIP AIRPORT           40.80N  73.10W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH MEASURED.

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CHESHIRE                41.50N  72.90W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 42 AT BROADVIEW.

0610 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEFIELD              41.27N  73.50W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

A TREE WAS DOWN INTO WIRES AT STATE ROUTE 835 AND
COUNTRY CLUB ROAD AND A TREE WAS DOWN AT ROUTE 7 BY
FLORIDA HILL ROAD.

0615 AM     FLOOD            HARRIMAN                41.31N  74.14W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER RESCUE ON LARKIN DRIVE OF MOTORIST STRANDED IN
FLOOD WATERS.

0615 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VAILS GATE              41.46N  74.05W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN THROUGHT TOWN.

0620 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST EAST MORICHES           40.81N  72.76W
08/28/2011  M71 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

MESONET

0620 AM     TROPICAL STORM   EAST MORICHES           40.81N  72.76W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH MEASURED

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PORTLAND                41.56N  72.63W
08/28/2011                   MIDDLESEX          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 66 CLOSED AT COBOLT-EAST HAMPTON TOWN LINE DUE TO
POWER POLES DOWN.

0640 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH BRANFORD          41.32N  72.77W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE PORTION OF SIDING TAKEN OF HOME AT 229 BRANFORD
ROAD.

0656 AM     TROPICAL STORM   EAST FARMINGDALE        40.73N  73.42W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH MEASURED.

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BRIDGEHAMPTON           40.94N  72.30W
08/28/2011  M65 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

NWS CO-OP

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG KILLINGWORTH            41.35N  72.56W
08/28/2011                   MIDDLESEX          CT   AMATEUR RADIO

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT KILLINGWORTH.

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BRANFORD                41.28N  72.81W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   AMATEUR RADIO

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT BRANFORD.

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WOODBRIDGE              41.35N  73.01W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   AMATEUR RADIO

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT WOODBRIDGE

0702 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SAYVILLE                40.75N  73.09W
08/28/2011  M91 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

MESONET

0706 AM     FLOOD            GOSHEN                  41.40N  74.33W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

17M NEAR GOSHEN NY CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

0713 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NYC/JFK AIRPORT         40.64N  73.76W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 44 MPH MEASURED

0739 AM     FLOOD            KEARNY                  40.75N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   HUDSON             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** CAR STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS ON
HARRISON AVENUE…COUNTY ROAD 508

0745 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    LONG BEACH              40.59N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

LIFEGUARD BUILDING DISLODGED BY OCEAN WATER

0750 AM     FLOOD            FAIR LAWN               40.94N  74.12W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

RESIDENTS RESCUED FROM FLOODED HOMES ALONG HOWARD
AVENUE WITH A FRONTEND LOADER.

0754 AM     TROPICAL STORM   SHIRLEY AIRPORT         40.80N  72.84W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH MEASURED

0756 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    LONG BEACH              40.59N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

OCEAN FLOODED TO PARK AVENUE IN A FEW PLACES

0756 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    LONG BEACH              40.59N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

THE BAY HAS FLOODED 1-2 BLOCKS IN PLACES

0759 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW FAIRFIELD           41.47N  73.49W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

WIRES DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 37 AND ROUTE 39.

0800 AM     STORM SURGE      CONEY ISLAND            40.58N  73.99W
08/28/2011                   KINGS              NY   OTHER FEDERAL

SUBWAY TRAIN STORAGE YARD UNDER WATER

0800 AM     STORM SURGE      LONG BEACH              40.59N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM SURGE ESTIMATED TO EASILY BE 7FT MSL HERE AND
ALSO AT LIDO BEACH. FOR LONG BEACH…CARS PARKED NEAR
THE BOARDWALK HAD WATER OVER THEIR ROOFS.

0800 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BRIDGEHAMPTON           40.94N  72.30W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

NWS CO-OP OBSERVER AT BRIDGEHAMPTON RECORDED A 65 MPH
MAXIMUM WIND GUST AS OF 8AM.

0804 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG RIDGEWOOD               40.98N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN RIDGEWOOD.

0815 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NE CALVERTON          40.93N  72.74W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

25 FOOT DOUGLAS FIR TREE DOWNED.

0836 AM     TROPICAL STORM   NEW HAVEN               41.31N  72.92W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   ASOS

NEW HAVEN ASOS MEASURED 43 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 836
AM

0840 AM     FLOOD            MONROE                  41.32N  74.19W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NY 208 NEAR MONROE CLOSE DUE TO FLOODING

0844 AM     FLOOD            BROOKLYN                40.65N  73.95W
08/28/2011                   KINGS              NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

BELT PARKWAY EASTBOUND AT KNAPP ST CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0844 AM     FLOOD            BROOKLYN                40.65N  73.95W
08/28/2011                   KINGS              NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

BELT PARKWAY WESTBOUND AT FRANCIS LEWIS BLVD CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING

0844 AM     FLOOD            BROOKLYN                40.65N  73.95W
08/28/2011                   KINGS              NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

ERSKINE ST FLOODING IN RIGHT LANE BLOCKING BOTH
DIRECTIONS BETWEEN BAY 8TH ST AND BAY PARKWAY.

0845 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    HAMPTON BAYS            40.88N  72.52W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

DUNE ROAD UNDER 3 FT OF WATER

0846 AM     FLOOD            MANHATTAN               40.78N  73.97W
08/28/2011                   NEW YORK           NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

NORTH PART OF HOLLAND TUNNEL CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0850 AM     FLOOD            WEST VILLAGE HOUSES     40.73N  74.01W
08/28/2011                   NEW YORK           NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

PART OF 10TH AVENUE…2 CARS STUCK IN WATER

0856 AM     FLOOD            1 NE KEW GARDENS HILLS  40.74N  73.82W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   PUBLIC

LIE WESTBOUND AT KISSENA BLVD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STAMFORD                41.02N  73.56W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

MANY LARGE BRACHES DOWN THROUGHT THE TOWN AND A 1 FOOT
DIAMETER TREE WAS DOWN. PORT-O-POTTY IN CUMMINGS PARK
BLOWN OVER AND SMASHED AGAINST A TREE.

0900 AM     FLOOD            STAMFORD                41.02N  73.56W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

WATER COVERING ABOUT HALF OF CUMMINGS PARK.

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FIRE ISLAND             40.65N  73.15W
08/28/2011  M64 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

FIRE ISLAND COAST GUARD

0908 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    LINDENHURST             40.69N  73.37W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

MOST OF TOWN OF LINDENHURST UNDER WATER

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH BABYLON           40.72N  73.32W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

2-3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN ALONG WEST SIDE OF NORTH
BABYLON HIGH SCHOOL.

0910 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW HYDE PARK           40.73N  73.69W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCH TREE DOWN ON 6TH AVENUE.

0915 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WOODBRIDGE              41.35N  73.01W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

0917 AM     FLOOD            FREEPORT                40.65N  73.58W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

BUFFALO AVENUE AT MERRICK ROAD IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING.

0923 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG STRATFORD               41.20N  73.13W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

FIRE FROM DOWNED WIRES ON HONEY SPOT ROAD

0926 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    LONG BEACH              40.59N  73.67W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER COMING OVER RETAINING WALL AT NATIONAL BOULEVARD
AND SHORE ROAD.

0929 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG COPIAGUE                40.67N  73.39W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

3 OAK TREES DOWN ON ST. ANNES STREET AND KENSINGTON
COURT.

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MASSAPEQUA              40.67N  73.47W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE LIMBS DOWN NEAR NASSAU SHORES GOLF COURSE.

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BETHEL                  41.37N  73.41W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W BETHEL              41.37N  73.43W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   PUBLIC

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0930 AM     FLOOD            MILBURN                 41.50N  74.35W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   PUBLIC

MOST OF DOWNTOWN MILBURN INACCESSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING… WITH MOST OF MAIN STREET AND MILBURN AVENUES
UNDERWATER UP TO THE DOORS OF HOMES AND BUSINESSES.

0932 AM     FLOOD            MANHATTAN               40.78N  73.97W
08/28/2011                   NEW YORK           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

FDR CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT HOUSTON STREET

0940 AM     FLOOD            FAIRFIELD               41.13N  73.28W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE SECTIONS OF WHITE STREET CLOSED DUE TO BEING
COVERED BY FEET OF WATER.

0943 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRANKLIN SQUARE         40.70N  73.68W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON DOGWOOD AVENUE AND MUNSONN AVENUE.

0945 AM     FLOOD            NEWBURGH                41.50N  74.02W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

NYS THRUWAY CLOSED BETWEEN EXITS 12 AND 17 DUE TO
FLOODING

0945 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW OLD BETHPAGE      40.76N  73.47W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN AT 20 SARAH DRIVE.

0954 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG QUEENS                  40.75N  73.80W
08/28/2011                   QUEENS             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE DOWN ON A CAR ON 67 RD AND 99 ST WITH A RESCUE

0958 AM     FLOOD            ELMSFORD                41.05N  73.81W
08/28/2011                   WESTCHESTER        NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER RESCUE

1000 AM     FLOOD            HAWTHORNE               40.96N  74.16W
08/28/2011                   PASSAIC            NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET TO NORTH OF WASHINGTON AVE HAS AT LEAST 4 FT OF
WATER

1000 AM     STORM SURGE      EAST HAVEN              41.30N  72.86W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL BEACH FRONT HOMES SUFFERED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE
FROM STORM SURGE ON COSEY BEACH AVE….ESTIMATED 4-8 FT
OF SURGE…1 HOME PARTIALLY COLLAPSED AND 1 HOME
ENTIRELY COLLAPSED

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MEDFORD                 40.82N  72.98W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   PUBLIC

DOWNED TREE NEAR TORREY PINE LANE AND JAMAICA AVENUE

1000 AM     STORM SURGE      2 SSW BELLVIEW BEACH    40.76N  72.80W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERWASH AT SMITH POINT PARK INTO THE PARKING LOT

1010 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

KINGSLAND ROAD BETWEEN RIDGEWOOD STREET AND SKYLAR
STREET IS CLOSED DUE TO LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

1010 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LYNDHURST               40.80N  74.11W
08/28/2011                   BERGEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON 3RD STREET AND UNION AVENUE.

1010 AM     FLOOD            HARLEM                  40.82N  73.94W
08/28/2011                   NEW YORK (MANHATTA NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

SOUTHBOUND HENRY HUDSON DRIVE CLOSED IN HARLEM DUE TO 3
FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

1014 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BLUE POINT              40.75N  73.03W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

1015 AM     STORM SURGE      BELLMORE                40.66N  73.53W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

MERRICK ROAD SOUTH IS INUNDATED…WATER IS 4 FT DEEP IN
BELLMORE

1015 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

WIDESPREAD LARGE BRANCHES DOWN WITH ROAD CLOSURES

1015 AM     STORM SURGE      WESTPORT                41.12N  73.35W
08/28/2011                   FAIRFIELD          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

1 FOOT OF WATER OVER US1 AND RISING…SAUGATUCK RIVER
IS OUT OF ITS BANK…CLOSURES ALONG SAUGATUCK RIVER NEAR
RIVERSIDE AND IMPERIAL AVE

1029 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    ROBERT MOSES STATE PARK 40.63N  73.24W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

BURMA ROAD IS COVERED BY 18 INCHES OF SALTWATER.

1045 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BAITING HOLLOW          40.96N  72.74W
08/28/2011                   SUFFOLK            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE TREES DOWN INCLUDING A 30 FT PINE TREE AND A 25
FOOT DOUGLAS FIR TREE FROM EARLIER

1050 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    WANTAGH                 40.67N  73.51W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS CLOSED FROM MANDALAY SCHOOL TO SEAFORD HARBOR.

1100 AM     FLOOD            SEYMOUR                 41.40N  73.06W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

NAGATUCK RIVER OUT OF BANKS AND CAUSING FLOODING IN
DOWNTOWN SEYMOUR. WATER IS OVER THE BRIDGE ON ROUTE
67… AND PEOPLE ARE BEING EVACUATED FROM DERBY AVENUE.

1100 AM     FLOOD            NEW CITY                41.15N  73.99W
08/28/2011                   ROCKLAND           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODED BASEMENT ON FERNWOOD DRIVE.

1105 AM     FLOOD            SEYMOUR                 41.40N  73.06W
08/28/2011                   NEW HAVEN          CT   TRAINED SPOTTER

NAUGATUCK RIVER HAS BREACHED THE ROUTE 67 BRIDGE.
CENTER STREET IS FLOODED. EVACUATIONS OF RESIDENTS ALONG
DERBY AVENUE.

1200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCKVILLE CENTRE        40.66N  73.64W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

UPROOTED 2 FT DIAMETER TREE CRASHED INTO HOME CAUSING
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NEAR NORTH FOREST AVE AND CEDAR AVE

1204 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BALDWIN HARBOR          40.64N  73.60W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLDEN HARBOR NEAR INTERSECTION OF WASHINGTON ST AND
BERITY LANE…2 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

1204 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BALDWIN HARBOR          40.64N  73.60W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

HAYES STREET…UTILITY POLE AND TREES DOWN

1208 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NORTH BELLMORE          40.69N  73.53W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

2 FT TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF NEW BRIDGE ROAD AND
BELLMORE AVENUE

1213 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SEAFORD                 40.67N  73.49W
08/28/2011                   NASSAU             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE UPROOTED AND DAMAGED STREET NEAR LEE DRIVE
AND ADRIENNE LANE

1233 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GOSHEN                  41.40N  74.33W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

1233 PM     FLOOD            GOSHEN                  41.40N  74.33W
08/28/2011                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER RESCUES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WOODBINE                39.23N  74.81W
08/27/2011                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

0606 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST LEWES                   38.78N  75.15W
08/27/2011  M66 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   C-MAN STATION

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRANKFORD               38.52N  75.23W
08/27/2011                   SUSSEX             DE   PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     GEORGETOWN              38.69N  75.39W
08/27/2011  M58 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   NWS OFFICE

WIND GUST MEASURED AT SITE GED

0635 PM     TORNADO          2 SW LEWES              38.76N  75.18W
08/27/2011                   SUSSEX             DE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AROUND 15 HOMES DAMAGED IN THE NASSAU STATION AND
TRADEWINDS SUBDIVISIONS SW OF LEWES. ONE HOME
DEMOLISHED.

0650 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE MAY                38.94N  74.90W
08/27/2011  M52 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DENNIS TWP              39.18N  74.82W
08/27/2011                   CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE MAY                38.94N  74.90W
08/27/2011  M62 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0812 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHESAPEAKE CITY         39.53N  75.81W
08/27/2011  M62 MPH          CECIL              MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE

0845 PM     FLOOD            RIDDLE GLEN             39.91N  75.42W
08/27/2011                   DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

RIDLEY CREEK FLOODED ONTO ROADS

0900 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST CHESTERTOWN             39.22N  76.07W
08/27/2011  M67 MPH          KENT               MD   PUBLIC

0900 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NW ALLUVIUM           39.84N  74.95W
08/27/2011                   CAMDEN             NJ   PUBLIC

LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0940 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEPTUNE CITY            40.20N  74.03W
08/27/2011                   MONMOUTH           NJ   PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0950 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PHILADELPHIA            39.95N  75.16W
08/27/2011                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TOMS RIVER              39.95N  74.20W
08/27/2011                   OCEAN              NJ   PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

1010 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON              39.73N  75.53W
08/27/2011                   NEW CASTLE         DE   PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

1025 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG NEW CASTLE              39.67N  75.57W
08/27/2011                   NEW CASTLE         DE   PUBLIC

LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN

1030 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG UPPER DARBY             39.93N  75.27W
08/27/2011                   DELAWARE           PA   PUBLIC

BRANCHES DOWN

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEISURETOWNE            39.90N  74.70W
08/27/2011                   BURLINGTON         NJ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

1040 PM     FLOOD            NORRISTOWN              40.12N  75.34W
08/27/2011                   MONTGOMERY         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERE FLOODING

1115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW WEST OSBORNSVILLE 40.04N  74.13W
08/27/2011  M66 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   PUBLIC

1232 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SANDY HOOK              40.44N  73.99W
08/28/2011  M63 MPH          MONMOUTH           NJ   MESONET

0115 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PENNSAUKEN              39.96N  75.06W
08/28/2011  M56 MPH          CAMDEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0151 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST GLENSIDE                40.10N  75.15W
08/28/2011  M45 MPH          MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

0215 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST DENNISVILLE             39.19N  74.83W
08/28/2011  M61 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0221 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WRIGHTSTOWN             40.03N  74.63W
08/28/2011  M51 MPH          BURLINGTON         NJ   MESONET

0224 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SEASIDE HEIGHTS         39.94N  74.08W
08/28/2011  M58 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

0230 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST BRICK TWP               40.07N  74.12W
08/28/2011  M66 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

0249 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST ALLENTOWN AIRPORT       40.65N  75.44W
08/28/2011  M46 MPH          LEHIGH             PA   ASOS

0257 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SUSSEX AIRPORT          41.20N  74.62W
08/28/2011  M52 MPH          SUSSEX             NJ   ASOS

0300 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST POINT PLEASANT          40.08N  74.07W
08/28/2011  M52 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   MESONET

0302 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LAKEHURST NAS           40.04N  74.35W
08/28/2011  M52 MPH          OCEAN              NJ   AWOS

0306 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG BOUND BROOK             40.57N  74.54W
08/28/2011                   SOMERSET           NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES UPROOTED

0350 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST PERTH AMBOY             40.52N  74.27W
08/28/2011  M51 MPH          MIDDLESEX          NJ   MESONET

0700 AM     FLOOD            HIGHTSTOWN              40.27N  74.53W
08/28/2011                   MERCER             NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

PEDDIE LAKE OUT OF ITS BANKS. MAJOR FLOODING IN
DOWNTOWN HIGHTSTOWN.

0730 AM     FLOOD            SMYRNA                  39.30N  75.61W
08/28/2011                   KENT               DE   TRAINED SPOTTER

SMYRNA RIVER FLOODED ONTO RT 13.

0737 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHARON HILL             39.91N  75.27W
08/28/2011                   DELAWARE           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON SPRING STREET. ALSO TREE DOWN ON
CHESTER PIKE.

0802 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ESTELL MANOR            39.35N  74.77W
08/28/2011                   ATLANTIC           NJ   CO-OP OBSERVER

WIRES DOWN

0812 AM     FLOOD            GLENDORA                39.84N  75.07W
08/28/2011                   CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

BIG TIMBER CREEK FLOODED ONTO CHEEWS LANDING AND LOWER
LANDING ROADS

0859 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MAIDEN CREEK            40.45N  75.90W
08/28/2011                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS SEVERAL ROADS INCLUDING
WESNER ROAD… LINDBERGH AVE… AND EVANSVILLE ROAD

0900 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JONES CROSSROADS        38.60N  75.45W
08/28/2011  M45 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

0910 AM     FLOOD            OXFORD                  40.80N  74.99W
08/28/2011                   WARREN             NJ   PUBLIC

STREAMS OUT OF BANKS IN OXFORD AREA

0926 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST STROUDSBURG        41.00N  75.18W
08/28/2011                   MONROE             PA   PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0930 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SHARON HILL             39.91N  75.27W
08/28/2011                   DELAWARE           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FORKS TWP               40.73N  75.22W
08/28/2011  M49 MPH          NORTHAMPTON        PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

1030 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE MAY                38.94N  74.90W
08/28/2011  M63 MPH          CAPE MAY           NJ   CO-OP OBSERVER

1050 AM     FLOOD            FRANKLIN TWP            40.71N  75.06W
08/28/2011                   WARREN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

POHATCONG CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS

1100 AM     FLOOD            DENVILLE TWP            40.90N  74.48W
08/28/2011                   MORRIS             NJ   COCORAHS

ROCKAWAY RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS

1115 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PLAINSBORO              40.33N  74.60W
08/28/2011                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

1116 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG VINELAND                39.46N  75.00W
08/28/2011                   CUMBERLAND         NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

1117 AM     FLOOD            KENTON                  39.23N  75.67W
08/28/2011                   KENT               DE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING REPORTED KENTON AREA

1135 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST MILFORD                 38.91N  75.43W
08/28/2011  M49 MPH          SUSSEX             DE   DEOS

1215 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG DAGSBORO                38.55N  75.25W
08/28/2011                   SUSSEX             DE   PUBLIC

LARGE TREE BRANCHES BROKEN

1225 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WEST GROVE              39.82N  75.83W
08/28/2011  M48 MPH          CHESTER            PA   DEOS

1229 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WANTAGE                 41.24N  74.55W
08/28/2011  M50 MPH          SUSSEX             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0105 PM     FLOOD            MONTAGUE                41.30N  74.78W
08/28/2011                   SUSSEX             NJ   PUBLIC

STREAMS OVER ROADS AND BRIDGES

0111 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASHINGTON              40.76N  74.98W
08/28/2011  M65 MPH          WARREN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Hi everybody. Just a heads up that we are now tracking Invest 92. This could potentially be our next threat. Models have it moving in our general direction and we will probably be watching this system carefully as a tropical storm or hurricane over the next several days. For the folks who made it through the last storm, I would not get too comfortable just yet. Don’t return those generators just yet. Even Max Mayfield made a comment that the east coast should not get too comfortable….not yet. You can get some of the basic models from our interactive tropical page. Click on the Invest 92 link and use the dropdown box to see the latest models.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT…SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
732 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

1207 PM     FLOOD            2 E SAINT MARYS CITY    38.19N  76.41W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

6-8 INCHES OF STANDING WATER OVER MULTIPLE SECTIONS OF
MATTHAPANY RD NEAR ST. MARYS COLLEGE.

1211 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 NW SAINT INIGOES      38.17N  76.41W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE LARGE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN…SEVERAL FENCES
DESTROYED.

1242 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 W ELMA                37.75N  78.83W
08/27/2011                   NELSON             VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

VA ROUTE 6 CLOSED IN NELSON COUNTY DUE TO KNOCKED DOWN
TREE.

1255 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 ESE LEONARDTOWN       38.28N  76.59W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN NEAR ST. MARYS HOSPITAL

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE CHAPTICO           38.38N  76.76W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   911 CALL CENTER

BAPTIST RD CLOSED

0230 PM     TROPICAL STORM   LEONARDTOWN             38.30N  76.64W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0240 PM     TROPICAL STORM   KING GEORGE             38.27N  77.18W
08/27/2011                   KING GEORGE        VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL PINE TREES DOWN

0250 PM     TROPICAL STORM   PRINCE FREDERICK        38.55N  76.59W
08/27/2011                   CALVERT            MD   911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY FROM HURRICANE WIND
GUSTS.

0505 PM     TROPICAL STORM   UPPER MARLBORO          38.82N  76.76W
08/27/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN AT 1301 IVERSON STREET IN OXON HILL.

0523 PM     TROPICAL STORM   UPPER MARLBORO          38.82N  76.76W
08/27/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN AT 6016 MUSTANG COURT IN RIVERDALE

0606 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINEY POINT             38.14N  76.50W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 249 CLOSED AND FLOODED.

0624 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW CROWNSVILLE        38.99N  76.62W
08/27/2011                   ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 450 FLOODED AND CLOSED NEAR RUTLAND ROAD.

0624 PM     TROPICAL STORM   16 ENE TAYLORS ISLAND   38.57N  76.07W
08/27/2011                   ANZ541             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 37 KNOTS.

0725 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 W CALIFORNIA          38.30N  76.54W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREES DOWN

0743 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE ANDREWS AFB        38.79N  76.84W
08/27/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 223 FLOODED AND CLOSED AT ROSARYVILLE ROAD.

0745 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E CLINTON             38.76N  76.88W
08/27/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN FOX RUN ESTATES

0745 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SSW DUNDALK           39.25N  76.51W
08/27/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE BLOWN ONTO HOUSE AT BELCLARE ROAD AND MCSHANE ROAD

0833 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S FERNDALE            39.17N  76.63W
08/27/2011                   ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MARYLAND STATE ROUTE 176 FLOODED AND CLOSED BETWEEN
CENTRAL AVENUE AND BALTO ANNAPOLIS BOULEVARD.

0840 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 N NORTH BEACH         38.73N  76.54W
08/27/2011                   ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 42 KNOTS.

0843 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BALTIMORE               39.30N  76.61W
08/27/2011                   BALTIMORE CITY     MD   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE 4500 BLOCK OF HARFORD ROAD WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE 600 BLOCK OF WEST PATAPSCO ROAD AND THE
2300 BLOCK OF MCELDERRY ROAD WERE ALSO CLOSED.

0852 PM     TROPICAL STORM   WEST SPRINGFIELD        38.77N  77.23W
08/27/2011                   FAIRFAX            VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREES DOWN

0900 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 W GATEWOOD            38.09N  77.72W
08/27/2011                   SPOTSYLVANIA       VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 614 IN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO POWER
LINES DOWN ACROSS ROADWAY.

0904 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 ESE PARK HALL         38.20N  76.38W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER IS OUT FROM MECHANICSVILLE TO POINT LOOKOUT ABOUT
10 MILES AND MANY TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0923 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE SPRING VALLEY     38.33N  77.45W
08/27/2011                   STAFFORD           VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

HARRELL ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN FORBES STREET AND DEACON
ROAD DUE TO FLASH FLOODING FROM CLAIBORNE RUN.

0930 PM     FLOOD            PINEY POINT             38.14N  76.50W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 249 REMAINS CLOSED SOUTH OF STARK DRIVE DUE
TO FLOODING.

1004 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SW STAFFORD           38.41N  77.42W
08/27/2011                   STAFFORD           VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

US-1 IN STAFFORD COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO POWER LINES DOWN
ACROSS ROADWAY.

1004 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ESE HOLLY CORNER      38.35N  77.53W
08/27/2011                   STAFFORD           VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 654 IN STAFFORD COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO POWER LINES
DOWN ACROSS ROADWAY.

1004 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE SPRING VALLEY     38.33N  77.45W
08/27/2011                   STAFFORD           VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 623 IN STAFFORD COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

1027 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW LONDONTOWNE        38.93N  76.57W
08/27/2011                   ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 214 CLOSED AT STATE ROUTE 2 DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING.

1031 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ENE PATUXENT RIVER NA 38.28N  76.41W
08/27/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS 36 KNOTS.

1035 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 SE DAHLGREN           38.31N  77.03W
08/27/2011                   ANZ536             VA   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 41 KNOTS.

1045 PM     TROPICAL STORM   10 ENE PLUM POINT       38.68N  76.33W
08/27/2011                   ANZ541             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 36 KNOTS.

1059 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 SE HIGHLAND BEACH     38.90N  76.44W
08/27/2011                   ANZ532             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 47 KNOTS.

1059 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 ENE DAHLGREN          38.34N  76.99W
08/27/2011                   ANZ536             VA   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 46 KNOTS.

1136 PM     TROPICAL STORM   SOLOMONS                38.32N  76.45W
08/27/2011                   CALVERT            MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KNOTS.

1136 PM     TROPICAL STORM   SOLOMONS                38.32N  76.45W
08/27/2011                   CALVERT            MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KNOTS.

1200 AM     FLOOD            1 ESE SPRING VALLEY     38.33N  77.45W
08/28/2011                   STAFFORD           VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

HARRELL ROAD REMAINS FLOODED AND CLOSED FROM EARLIER
RAINS ON CLAIBORNE RUN.

1205 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 SE COBB ISLAND        38.24N  76.83W
08/28/2011                   ANZ537             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 51 KNOTS.

1230 AM     TROPICAL STORM   5 S SWAN POINT          38.23N  76.95W
08/28/2011                   ANZ536             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 46 KNOTS.

1248 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NOTTINGHAM              39.36N  76.45W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 7 FLOODED AND CLOSED AT MOHRS LANE.

1255 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E MORNINGSIDE         38.83N  76.87W
08/28/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS 34 KNOTS.

0100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 WSW NEWBURG           38.37N  77.00W
08/28/2011                   ANZ536             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 39 KNOTS.

0133 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E US CAPITOL          38.89N  77.00W
08/28/2011                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREE BRANCHES UP TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN.

0136 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 E CALVERT CLIFFS      38.43N  76.39W
08/28/2011                   ANZ533             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KNOTS.

0157 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE BALTIMORE MARTIN S 39.34N  76.39W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 150 FLOODED AND CLOSED AT EARLS ROAD.

0215 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE CLEMENTS          38.33N  76.73W
08/28/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   OTHER FEDERAL

THE RIVER GAUGE ON ST CLEMENT CREEK NEAR CLEMENTS SET A
NEW RECORD STAGE OF 6.98 FEET. RECORDS DATE BACK TO
1968.

0230 AM     FLOOD            WASHINGTON              38.91N  77.02W
08/28/2011                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SE SW FREEWAY CLOSED DUE TO HIGH STANDING WATER.

0306 AM     TROPICAL STORM   9 SE MIDDLE RIVER       39.21N  76.25W
08/28/2011                   ANZ531             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WIND 40 KNOTS.

0308 AM     FLOOD            1 NNW EDGEWOOD          39.44N  76.31W
08/28/2011                   HARFORD            MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 7 FLOODED AND CLOSED BETWEEN EDGEWOOD ROAD
AND MARYLAND ROUTE 24.

0315 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ESE OELLA             39.27N  76.77W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN IN BACKYARD OF SPOTTERS HOME.

0320 AM     FLOOD            2 NE BALTIMORE MARTIN S 39.34N  76.39W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STATE ROUTE 150 REMAINS FLOODED AND CLOSED DUE TO
EARLIER RAINFALL.

0330 AM     TROPICAL STORM   6 SSE FISHING CREEK     38.26N  76.18W
08/28/2011                   ANZ534             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 34 KNOTS.

0341 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 WSW NEWBURG           38.36N  77.00W
08/28/2011                   ANZ536             MD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

US-301 HARRY NICE BRIDGE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WIND.

0420 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 ESE CHASE             39.36N  76.32W
08/28/2011                   ANZ531             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 36 KNOTS.

0500 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 S ALDIE               38.94N  77.64W
08/28/2011                   PRINCE WILLIAM     VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 633 IN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO TREE
ACROSS ROADWAY.

0508 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 WNW WHITE PLAINS      38.60N  76.98W
08/28/2011                   CHARLES            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE UPROOTED

0518 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 NW WATERFORD          39.22N  77.66W
08/28/2011                   LOUDOUN            VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

VA-287 IN LOUDOUN COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO TREE DOWN ACROSS
ROADWAY.

0518 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 SSE LOVETTSVILLE      39.25N  77.62W
08/28/2011                   LOUDOUN            VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 673 IN LOUDOUN COUNTY CLOSED DUE TO TREE DOWN
ACROSS ROADWAY.

0518 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E HAMILTON            39.13N  77.65W
08/28/2011                   LOUDOUN            VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 704 CLOSED IN LOUDOUN COUNTY DUE TO TREE ACROSS
ROADWAY

0530 AM     TROPICAL STORM   17 NE SMITH ISLAND      38.14N  75.79W
08/28/2011                   ANZ543             VA   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 39 KNOTS.

0536 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 WSW PINEY POINT       38.13N  76.53W
08/28/2011                   ANZ537             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 47 KNOTS.

0624 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 SE FISHING CREEK     38.22N  76.04W
08/28/2011                   ANZ543             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KNOTS.

0706 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 W SPARROWS POINT      39.22N  76.53W
08/28/2011                   ANZ538             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 41 KNOTS.

0720 AM     FLOOD            3 N DUNKIRK             38.76N  76.66W
08/28/2011                   ANNE ARUNDEL       MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG LYONS CREEK NEAR MD RT 4
AND RT 260.

0745 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 N BALTIMORE MARTIN ST 39.34N  76.42W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS 34 KNOTS.

0800 AM     TROPICAL STORM   WASHINGTON              38.91N  77.02W
08/28/2011                   DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC   EMERGENCY MNGR

APPROXIMATELY 200 TREES WERE DOWN THROUGHOUT WASHINGTON
DC.

0805 AM     TROPICAL STORM   HOLLYWOOD               38.34N  76.58W
08/28/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS SEVERAL ROADS. ROADS ARE
ARMY WAY… TIPPETT ROAD… JOE HAZEL ROAD… INDIAN
BRIDGE ROAD… AND RT 243

0816 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 W CALIFORNIA          38.30N  76.54W
08/28/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

A LOT OF TREES DOWN FROM IRENE WIND GUSTS.

0930 AM     TROPICAL STORM   3 WSW LINEBORO          39.71N  76.90W
08/28/2011                   CARROLL            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

3 TREES DOWN THROUGHOUGHT NEIGHBORHOOD. A LOT OF DEBRIS
AND LIMBS SCATTERED ABOUT.

0931 AM     TROPICAL STORM   13 SE FISHING CREEK     38.22N  76.04W
08/28/2011                   ANZ543             MD   BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS 38 KNOTS.

0944 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ESE SILVER SPRING     39.00N  77.03W
08/28/2011                   MONTGOMERY         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TOP OF STREET LAMP DAMAGED BY STRONG WINDS.

0949 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 W HAMPTON             39.42N  76.59W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN FROM STRONG WINDS AND WIDESPERAD
POWER OUTAGES. RAINFALL IS STORM TOTAL PRECIP.

1002 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SW BALTIMORE          39.29N  76.62W
08/28/2011                   BALTIMORE CITY     MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES UPROOTED IN BALTIMORE COUNTY AND CITY ON RT 30
BUTLER…NORTHERN PKWY…AND BALTIMORE LIGHT RAIL.

1017 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E SILVER SPRING       39.00N  77.03W
08/28/2011                   MONTGOMERY         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

4 BRANCHES ABOUT 1 2 AN INCH IN DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN IN
PARK NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF RAMSY AND CAMERON ST. IN
SILVER SPRINGS.

1100 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 W FAIRLAND            39.08N  76.97W
08/28/2011                   MONTGOMERY         MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS.

1139 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E CLINTON             38.76N  76.88W
08/28/2011                   PRINCE GEORGES     MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE BIG TREES DOWN. ONE FELL ON NEIGHBOR S HOUSE
AND ANOTHER SMASHED THE NEIGHBOR S CARS. AT SPOTTER S
LOCATION…HAD LARGE TREE FALL THROUGH FENCE.
ALSO…MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT NEIGHBORHOOD

1253 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 W CALIFORNIA          38.30N  76.54W
08/28/2011                   ST. MARYS          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

MANY LARGE TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAYS. SOME STREETS
IN THE AREA ARE FLOODED.

Hi everybody. The final note has been written on Irene. Irene did not do the destruction that was first expected but it is where she did her damage that will help her be remembered. Although she created flooding all along the coast, she left her main mark in Vermont, upper New York State and Western Massachusetts in the form of flooding. North Carolinas did experience a very strong storm surge. All in all, most of the damage was either from storm surge or flooding.Trees falling was also a major issue. This was a good drill for the states that do not normally get tropical systems and a precursor that with the changing climate, they might become more frequent. You can see many of the storm damage reports in Joes Hurricane Blog. You will have to scroll down quite a bit as the posts are large.

In the Atlantic, tropical depression 12 has formed. This will be the next system we will be tracking and it could be our next threat. This one does have a chance to recurve so we will have to watch and see if that occurs. Depression 12 is riding under strong tropical ridge that is expected to weaken in a few days and allow a more west northwest track. Then the ridge is expected to again strengthen and allow the cyclone on a more westerly track. As you can see in the track, 12 is moving at a much higher latitude then Irene did and that in itself will create a better chance of a recurve. Again, the east coast needs to watch this storm carefully as it develops, and it will.

You can monitor all the storms on our interactive page  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html

The latest models and storm tracks  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

Hi everybody. TD 12 has become topical Storm Katia. Katia is now a minimal tropical storm but steady intensification to a cat 2 hurricane is forecast. Current long term models favor a potential re curve out to sea but show a close brush with Bermuda. It is a long way off but still needs to be monitored by the east coast for any changes. Because of the track at the higher latitude, Florida will probably not be in the crosshairs. Conditions do favor the recurve out to sea at this time. For full overage visit us at Hurricane Central.                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Hi everybody. Katia is now expected to be a cat 3 hurricane by day 5 of the forecast period. Some of the same weather conditions are present as when Irene moved up the east coast. It is too early to tell if Katia will re curve or take a similar path that Irene took.

This year, the NHC is using the same list as in 2005 with the exception that Katrina was replaced with Katia. Katrina was retired in 2005 because of the major destruction she rendered the Gulf Coast.A full update will not be issued till 5 PM. This will be a storm to watch. Katia is racing across the Atlantic at a good clip.

Hi everybody. Katia continues to grow and her presentation on satellite is impressive. She is forecast to become a major hurricane in a few days.

The good news is that the models are still favoring a re curve at this time. This is not written in stone so please keep watching until this is confirmed as things can change.

Katia is riding under the subtropical ridge and a weakness is expected to develop late in the forecast period that would allow a more North Westerly component. This will allow a more pole ward movement of the cyclone.

Katia is swiftly moving across the Atlantic and conditions appear favorable for development. Given the current conditions, I would give this system about a 75% chance of recurving out to sea. We will just have to watch.                                                                                                                                                      

This message has been generated from the office of

 

HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html .

 

Please visit our new garden site called HomeTownGarden.com. http://hometowngarden.com/

 

    

Hi everybody. We are looking at a new tropical depression called depression 13. This area is expected to linger for some time in the Gulf and move very slowly. The main issue from this system may be a long term period of heavy rain along the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Katia is beginning to be something that has to be watched very carefully. Global models are shifting to the west with each run. The cyclone is now traveling under the subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken and allow a more west northwest track in the short term. Later in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to re strengthen and allow Katina to make a more westerly track. This will have to be monitored carefully in the coming days. The storm is still too far out to make a definitive call at this time but the entire east coast should be paying close attention.                  For the latest info visit Hurricane Central. For the latest on TD 13, click here.

Hi everybody. Katia is now a hurricane. I would like to point out that vertical wind shear is quite strong and her satellite appearance is not that all impressive. Ahead of the storm, there is some dry air that will affect her intensification. At any rate, more and more it looks like the east coast areas that were just affected by Irene might be under the gun again from Katia. The extended forecast is unclear at this time but models keep suggesting a close brush. There are so many factors involved with this system. The US East Coast needs to keep a close eye on this storm. This is especially true for areas from Carolinas north.

No changes at this time with Depression 13 although it appears to be getting stronger. We are now in full hurricane mode and both storms are now covered at Hurricane Central.

Hi everybody. TD 13 is now Tropical Storm Lee.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. Here is the latest GFS model of Katia. This model has performed very well with Irene and is going to be an excellent guide to where this system will go. Be sure to allow all the images to load so you can see the full path of the storm. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011090212&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=236&wjet=1                                                                                                                                                                                                                              You can see that if that forecast holds true, New England would again be brushed very closely from Katia. Like I said, it is still early in the forecast so lots can happen but this is the trend that is taking place.

 

 

Hi everybody. Tropical storm Lee continues to creep north at 4 MPH. It is so slow moving that rains will create huge problems for the low lying areas along the Gulf Coast. It is possible that Lee could become a hurricane before landfall. Lee is now a 45 MPH tropical storm.

Katia is looked extremely ragged this evening. The wind shear has the system totally displaced and I am surprised that it is classified as a hurricane. The model forecast keeps the environment quite hostile the next 2 or 3 days. After that, models call for intensification. It is still too early to say if the system will make a US landfall but if it does, it would most likely be north of Carolina. In all likelihood, it will make a recurve out to sea. We will just have to watch and see.Models continue to track more to the west but we will have to see if that trend continues. Regardless, I do not see it as a threat to Florida at this time. Get all the latest updates at Hurricane Central. Get the latest forecast and radar for Louisiana and New Orleans at LouisianaRadar.com

Hi everybody. Hurricane Katia is barely hanging on as a hurricane. Wind shear and dry air is taking it’s toll on the system. I would not be surprised to see it downgraded in the next day or so. The model runs have shifted well to the east and if this trend continues, Katia will stay safely out to sea.

Tropical Storm Lee is also being affected by wind shear. It is possible for some slow development as he moves onshore. All in all, Lee is going to be a rain event and not a wind event. Soaking rains are going to continue on the Gulf Coast for several days as the system creeps north.                                                                                                                                                                                                               Hurricane Central

Both Lee and Katia are not in the best of health for tropical systems. Wind shear and dry air is taking its toll on both storms. Later in the forecast period, the two storms are going to be interacting with each others circulation. It is going to be interesting to see how this pans out. The NHC has advised us again that the forecast track is subject to change. This is a very difficult track to forecast because of all the different variables that are involved. If the track eventually follows the model trends then we should see a shift to the right. The 5 PM advisory actually shifted a bit west with the forecast track of Katia. We will have to see at 11 PM if the track remains in this position or is changed west or east.

Even with the degrading of Katia, she is forecast to re intensify to major hurricane status late in the forecast period.

Hurricane Central

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM LEE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
731 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

..SLOW MOVING LEE PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST…

NEW INFORMATION…
UPDATING OBSERVED CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED IMPACTS.

AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO
PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM.

WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS…
MOBILE…BALDWIN…ESCAMBIA…SANTA ROSA…OKALOOSA…STONE AND
GEORGE COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60 NM INCLUDING
MOBILE BAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT
MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GULF COASTAL WATERS DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60
NM. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

STORM INFORMATION…
AT 7 PM CDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5N…LONGITUDE 92.4W. THIS WAS ABOUT 260 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH NORTHWEST AT
4 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

SITUATION OVERVIEW…
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ROTATING AROUND THE STORM CENTER THIS EVENING…TRACKING NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. THE HEAVIEST…MOST PROLONGED BANDS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER…PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

DOPPLER RADAR AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS COASTAL MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR…INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY…STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOODING STAGE.

PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA…ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES AND MARINE AREA…ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
COME MAINLY IN GUSTS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE IN
THE GENERAL RANGE OF 7 TO 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. STORM
SURGE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE FORECAST…
RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OVER ROADWAYS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND ALONG BAYS AND SOUNDS. THE MOBILE BAY CAUSEWAY…THE CAUSEWAY
BRIDGE FROM THE MAINLAND TO DAUPHIN ISLAND…AND FORT PICKENS IN THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE A FEW AREAS THAT WILL BE PRONE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS…COINCIDING WITH THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE.

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE
FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE
ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE…TURN
AROUND…DONT DROWN.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 12 AM CDT…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GMZ655-675-040800-
/O.CON.KMOB.TR.W.1013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
731 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2011

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…

..WINDS AND SEAS…
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 12 TO 18 FEET OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. Katia is gaining strength but will pose no land threat to the US. Katia will continue to track around the subtropical ridge and head north and then north east out to sea. Katia is now a 125 mph hurricane so it is a good thing she is heading away from us.

The remnants of Lee will continue heading towards the northeast states where they will receive rain in places that do not need it. In addition, there is a tornado threat in these areas as well.

Invest 95 is the next threat that we will have to watch. A recurve of this system is going to a good bet but this system will come much closer to the US then Katia did so it will have to be watched with extreme caution. It now has a 70% chance of development.The system could become a tropical system in the next day or so. In the shorter term, those in the Windward Islands and Puerto Rice will want to keep a close eye on the development of this system. This system will pose a much closer US threat then Katia and will likely also be a powerful storm. 

 

Invest 95 Models

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL132011
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011

…POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…34.3N 85.2W
ABOUT 60 MILES…97 KM…NW OF ATLANTA  GEORGIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…50 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE NORTHEAST.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH…AND LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. LEE IS NOW A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
LOW CENTER. AS THIS MOISTURE CROSSES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL
BE LIFTED…RESULTING IN EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH…50 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS
——-
RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
THURSDAY…WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE
LOCATIONS. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM EDT

…ALABAMA…
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW             11.74
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW                    11.32
MOBILE                              10.92
ORANGE BEACH 3.0 ENE                10.50
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                       10.39
SPRINGVILLE 5.3 WNW                 10.36
THEODORE 3.7 WNW                    10.31
ALBERTVILLE 4.8 WNW                  8.94
GUNTERSVILLE 2 ENE                   8.65
BIRMINGHAM                           8.13
WILMER 7.9 SE                        7.55
GADSDEN                              7.18
TUSCALOOSA                           7.16
MUSCLE SHOALS                        6.04
HUNTSVILLE/MADISON CO ARPT           5.52

…WASHINGTON DC…
NATIONAL AIRPORT                     2.03

…FLORIDA…
MILTON 1.4 NNE                      10.03
NICEVILLE 4.5 SE                     7.35
PENSACOLA 3.8 N                      6.57
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW               6.35
DESTIN ARPT                          6.29
ENSLEY 2.1 ENE                       6.10
PACE 2.4 N                           6.06
NAVARRE 2.3 NNW                      6.02
DESTIN AIRPORT                       5.93
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT                  5.81
VALPARAISO/EGLIN AFB                 5.71
GONZALEZ 2.1 E                       5.68
APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT               5.49
EGLIN AFB 5.6 NE                     5.33
HURLBURT FIELD AWS                   5.30

…GEORGIA…
LA FAYETTE 2.9 NE                   10.00
RINGGOLD 5 W                         8.95
TRENTON 5.8 S                        8.55
LYERLY 4.8 SSE                       7.65
ROME/RUSSELL FIELD                   6.00
CARTERSVILLE AIRPORT                 2.93
FORT BENNING                         2.03

…KENTUCKY…
FLATWOODS 0.5 WNW                    3.67
WHITESBURG 2 SE                      3.38
BOWLING GREEN                        3.24
PLUM SPRINGS 0.8 NNW                 3.10
LEXINTGON/BLUE GRASS FIELD           2.74
VERSAILLES 5.8 SSW                   2.65
LAWRENCEBURG 5.2 S                   2.34
SMITHS GROVE 0.3 SE                  2.14
GUTHRIE 0.8 WNW                      2.00

…LOUISIANA…
HOLDEN                              15.43
N.O. CAROLLTON                      14.32
MAUREPAS                            13.63
PONCHATOULA 4 SE                    13.22
CONVENT 2 S                         13.04
RESERVE 0.5 SSE                     12.43
GRAY 0.5 ENE                        12.15
MARRERO 1.9 E                       11.21
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT                 11.00
MONTICELLO 3.0 ENE                  10.91
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E                  10.59
MERAUX 0.8 WNW                      10.10
ZACHARY 3.5 WNW                      9.04
BOOTHVILLE                           8.83
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT           8.20

…MARYLAND…
HAVRE DE GRACE 4 WNW                 3.04
HAGERSTOWN RGNL ARPT                 2.42

…MAINE…
GREENVILLE 2 E                       2.73
MILLINOCKET MUNI ARPT                2.63

…MISSISSIPPI…
WAVELAND 1.1 NW                     14.11
FLORENCE 0.9 E                      13.45
SAUCIER 6.4 ESE                     11.75
GULFPORT 2.0 NE                     11.71
LONG BEACH 0.7 S                    11.59
PASS CHRISTIAN 5.0 N                11.31
RICHLAND 0.3 WSW                    11.25
PHILADELPHIA 5.4 E                  11.18
JACKSON                             11.15
PEARL 3.4 ESE                       11.14
GULFPORT-BILOXI                     11.14
JACKSON WFO                         11.13
PASCAGOULA                          10.95
KILN 6.6 N                          10.90

…NORTH CAROLINA…
BLOWING ROCK 2.8 ENE                 7.18
BOONE 4.8 SE                         6.56
FRANKLIN 7.5 SW                      4.93

…NEW HAMPSHIRE…
KEENE/DILLANT-HOPKINS ARPT           3.55
MOUNT WASHINGTON                     2.78

…NEW JERSEY…
ANDOVER                              3.40
KNOWLTON TWP 3.2 SSE                 3.31

…NEW YORK…
WARWICK 3.2 WNW                      3.27
PULASKI 0.5 NE                       3.24
OSWEGO 0.9 WNW                       3.02
MONTGOMERY/ORANGE CO ARPT            2.96
SARANAC LAKE/ADIRONDACK ARPT         2.26

…PENNSYLVANIA…
JOHNSTOWN/CAMBRIA CO ARPT            4.08
MECHANICSBURG 4.5 NE                 3.05
MUIR AAF/INDIANTOWN                  2.97
MIDDLETOWN/OLMSTED                   2.95
ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM                  2.64

…SOUTH CAROLINA…
SALEM 2.7 WNW                        2.03

…TENNESSEE…
CLEVELAND 3 ESE                     12.22
APISON 2.7 SW                        9.59
RICEVILLE 3.7 WSW                    9.50
OOLTEWAH 6.7 NNW                     8.58
OAK RIDGE                            8.34
KNOXVILLE MUNI ARPT                  7.03
CLARKSVILLE 10.2 WSW                 5.53
CUMBERLAND CITY 1.2 ESE              5.41
OAK RIDGE 6.9 NNE                    5.09
CROSSVILLE MEMORIAL ARPT             4.98
LAWRENCEBURG 8.8 SE                  4.95
COOKEVILLE 4.6 WNW                   4.23
CHRISTIANA 6.5 E                     4.22
NASHVILLE METRO ARPT                 3.53
CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD             3.04

…TEXAS…
BRIDGE CITY 1.3 NW                   3.12
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR                 3.04
JASPER 6.7 W                         2.12

…VIRGINIA…
HILLSVILLE 8.9 SE                    6.34
SHIPMAN 1.8 NW                       6.30
BEDFORD 1.1 N                        6.08
ROANOKE MUNI ARPT                    4.30

…VERMONT…
BURLINGTON INTL ARPT                 2.58
SPRINGFIELD/HARTNESS STATE ARPT      2.35

…WEST VIRGINIA…
BLUEFIELD/MERCER CO ARPT             3.76
BECKLEY MEMORIAL ARPT                3.49
MORGANTOWN                           2.99
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE                   2.87
ROCKPORT 1.3 SSE                     2.22
POINT PLEASANT 5.8 E                 2.00

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.
Hurricane Central

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WWUS20 KWNS 061734
SEL8
SPC WW 061734
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-070100-

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 845…WW 846…WW 847…

DISCUSSION…MULTIPLE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  WATCH AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO
SRN APPALACHIANS UPPER SYSTEM.  WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
SLY FLOW…SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.

..MEAD

$$

Hi everybody. Depression 14 is still a depression as of this morning despite it being very close to Tropical Storm status. The depression is in an area that normally would develop a storm quite rapidly and it is unknown exactly why the system is so weak as conditions are quite good for a tropical cyclone. Later in the forecast period, conditions appear to be less favorable for strengthening at least in the short term. This is due to wind shear and dry air.

Depression 14 is riding under a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is expected to weaken and allow the cyclone on a more north westerly course. The models have a huge spread at the end of the forecast period. in addition, conditions for development are going to improve as the system passes the Windward Islands.

This system has a decent chance of a recurve but is going to be uncomfortably close as it hopefully passes to our east. Since the center location of the storm is a bit uncertain and a southward adjustment may be made, this will also affect the track and it wont be in our favor. Recon is scheduled to investigate the system and that will give us a better handle on the conditions in and around the storm.

At any rate, this system will pass much closer then Katia and the Windward Islands. Puerto Rico and the Bahamas should be watching this carefully.

Depression 14 Model Runs and Track

REMNANTS OF LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL132011
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..SURFACE CIRCULATION OF LEE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE SCALE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW…HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THERE WAS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE
CIRCULATION FOR LEE. THE CIRCULATION OF LEE HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A
LARGE SCALE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO BE LIFTED ALONG A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THESE LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE ENTIRE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

HAZARDS
——-
RAINFALL…HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED…WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

RAINFALL TOTALS
—————
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 08 AM EDT

..ALABAMA…
FYFFE 6.3 NNE                       12.94
MOBILE 10.2 WSW                     12.93
ALBERTVILLE 4.8 WNW                 12.44
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW             11.74
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW                    11.32
MOBILE/BATES FIELD                  10.92
ORANGE BEACH 3.0 ENE                10.50
FOLEY 2.0 SSW                       10.39
ENSLEY                               9.54
GUNTERSVILLE                         8.95
BIRMINGHAM MUNI ARPT                 8.30
GADSDEN MUNI ARPT                    7.18
TUSCALOOSA MUNI ARPT                 7.17
MUSCLE SHOALS RGNL ARPT              6.21
HUNTSVILLE/MADISON CO. ARPT          5.72

..CONNECTICUT…
GREENWICH                            4.17
NORTH HAVEN                          3.51
NORWALK                              3.20
DANBURY MUNI ARPT                    2.80
MERIDEN/MARKHAM MUNI ARPT            2.68
DANBURY                              2.61
WALLINGFORD                          2.54
BRIDGEPORT                           2.52

..WASHINGTON DC…
WASHINGTON/NATIONAL                  2.63

..DELAWARE…
WILMINGTON ARPT                      2.88

..FLORIDA…
MILTON 1.4 NNE                      10.03
NICEVILLE 4.5 SE                     7.35
PENSACOLA 3.8 N                      6.57
HURLBURT FIELD AWS                   6.50
WEST PENSACOLA 10.9 SW               6.35
DESTIN ARPT                          6.29
DESTIN AIRPORT                       6.29
ENSLEY 2.1 ENE                       6.10
PENSACOLA RGNL ARPT                  5.81
VALPARAISO/EGLIN AFB                 5.71
CRESTVIEW/BOB SIKES                  5.51
APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT               5.49
PENSACOLA NAS                        3.91
TYNDALL AFB/PANAMA CITY              3.87
TALLAHASSEE RGNL ARPT                3.22

..GEORGIA…
LA FAYETTE 2.9 NE                   11.01
RINGGOLD 5 W                        10.21
TRENTON 5.8 S                        9.89
LYERLY 4.8 SSE                       9.14
LAFAYETTE 5 SW                       8.71
NAOMI 2 E                            7.88
NEW ENGLAND 2 SE                     7.84
CURRYVILLE 3 W                       6.81
ROME/RUSSELL FIELD                   6.26
CARTERSVILLE AIRPORT                 3.17
WARNER ROBINS AFB                    2.58

..KENTUCKY…
CRANKS CREEK RESERVOIR               5.49
FLATWOODS 0.5 WNW                    4.82
CUMBERLAND                           4.75
WHITESBURG                           4.00
BOWLING GREEN-WARREN CO. ARPT        3.93
ALBANY 5.3 W                         3.90
PLUM SPRINGS 0.8 NNW                 3.81
LONDON-CORBIN ARPT                   2.98
LEXINGTON/BLUE GRASS FIELD           2.94
VERSAILLES 5.8 SSW                   2.65

..LOUISIANA…
HOLDEN                              15.43
N.O. CAROLLTON                      14.32
MAUREPAS                            13.63
PONCHATOULA 4 SE                    13.22
CONVENT 2 S                         13.04
WESTWEGO 1.8 NE                     13.03
RESERVE 0.5 SSE                     12.89
GRAY 0.5 ENE                        12.15
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT                 11.00
ZACHARY 3.5 WNW                      9.04
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT           8.20
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT                  5.90
NEW ORLEANS NAS                      4.59
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT               4.35

..MASSACHUSETTS…
LANESBOROUGH                         4.75
PITTSFIELD MUNI ARPT                 3.90
NORTH ADAMS                          3.31
SAVOY                                3.10
ALFORD                               2.70
ORANGE MUNI ARPT                     2.69

..MARYLAND…
CRESAPTOWN-BELAIR 0.9 SSE            6.55
HAGERSTOWN RGNL ARPT                 3.90
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL ARPT       3.44
HAVRE DE GRACE 4 WNW                 3.04
ANDREWS AFB/CAMP SPRINGS             2.77
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER              2.54
ANNAPOLIS – US NAVAL ACADEMY         2.51

..MAINE…
LINCOLN 4.3 NW                       3.08
GREENVILLE 2E                        2.73
MILLINOCKET MUNI ARPT                2.63

..MISSISSIPPI…
WAVELAND 1.1 NW                     14.11
FLORENCE 0.9 E                      13.45
SAUCIER 6.4 ESE                     11.75
GULFPORT 2.0 NE                     11.71
LONG BEACH 0.7 S                    11.59
PASS CHRISTIAN 5.0 N                11.31
RICHLAND 0.3 WSW                    11.25
PHILADELPHIA 5.4 E                  11.18
JACKSON WFO                         11.15
GULFPORT-BILOXI                     11.14
PASCAGOULA                          10.96
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL                   8.12
TUPELO/C.D. LEMONS                   6.10
NATCHEZ/HARDY                        4.81
COLUMBUS AFB                         3.57

..NORTH CAROLINA…
BLOWING ROCK 2.8 ENE                 8.50
BOONE                                6.56
SPARTA 3.5 SSW                       6.01
LAUREL SPRINGS 3 WSW                 5.34
LENOIR                               5.28
FRANKLIN 7.5 SW                      4.93
CHAPEL HILL/WILLIAMS ARPT            2.25

..NEW HAMPSHIRE…
WEST SWANZEY 2 ENE                   4.87
KEENE/DILLANT-HOPKINS ARPT           4.52
MOUNT WASHINGTON                     2.92

..NEW JERSEY…
KNOWLTON TWP 3.2 SSE                 6.40
ANDOVER/AEROFLEX ARPT                5.60
SUSSEX ARPT                          4.51
LODI                                 4.01
TETERBORO AIRPORT                    3.75
CALDWELL/ESSEX CO. ARPT              3.74
LYNDHURST                            3.66
TETERBORO                            3.63
WOODCLIFF LAKE                       3.39
NEWARK INTL ARPT                     3.32
SOMERVILLE                           3.27
TRENTON/MERCER CO. ARPT              2.97

..NEW YORK…
WURTSBORO 0.2 SSW                    5.45
MONTGOMERY/ORANGE CO. ARPT           4.83
ANCRAMDALE                           4.41
HUDSON                               4.10
STEPHENTOWN                          4.00
WHITE PLAINS/WESTCHESTER CO. APT     3.86
POUGHKEEPSIE/DUTCHESS CO. ARPT       3.49
NEW YORK CITY                        3.43
CHATHAM                              3.10
CATSKILL                             3.04
LIVINGSTON                           3.00
ALBANY WFO                           2.70
NEW YORK/LA GUARDIA                  2.59

..PENNSYLVANIA…
BETHLEHEM 2.9 NE                     7.05
DOVER 4.2 WSW                        7.04
JOHNSTOWN/CAMBRIA CO. ARPT           6.52
ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM                  5.49
WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON                4.78
WILLIAMSPORT                         4.50
LANCASTER AIRPORT                    4.09
ALLENTOWN                            3.95
DOYLESTOWN ARPT                      3.84
POTTSTOWN LIMERICK ARPT              3.76
READING                              3.65
ALTOONA                              3.50
YORK ARPT                            3.39
BETHLEHEM – LEHIGH RIVER             3.33
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT               2.72

..TENNESSEE…
CLEVELAND 3 ESE                     12.22
CHARLESTON                          11.50
APISON 2.7 SW                        9.59
CLEVELAND                            9.58
RICEVILLE 3.7 WSW                    9.50
GEORGETOWN                           9.48
OAK RIDGE (ASOS)                     8.62
OAK RIDGE                            8.34
KNOXVILLE MUNI ARPT                  7.30
CROSSVILLE MEMORIAL ARPT             5.35
NASHVILLE METRO ARPT                 4.41
SMYRNA AIRPORT                       3.63
CHATTANOOGA-LOVELL FIELD (ASOS)      3.41

..VIRGINIA…
HILLSVILLE 8.9 SE                    9.59
COPPER HILL 6.2 S                    8.88
FANCY GAP                            6.77
SHIPMAN 1.8 NW                       6.30
ROANOKE MUNI ARPT                    6.14
BEDFORD 1.1 N                        6.08
CHARLOTTESVILLE ARPT                 5.59
ROCKFISH                             5.58
WASHINGTON/DULLES                    3.34
WAKEFIELD MUNI ARPT                  2.86
FORT BELVOIR/DAVISON AFB             2.68
NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INL AP     2.58

..VERMONT…
BRATTLEBORO 2 SW                     4.98
WOODFORD                             3.12
BURLINGTON INTL ARPT                 2.60
SPRINGFIELD/HARTNESS STATE ARPT      2.58

..WEST VIRGINIA…
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE                   5.37
KEYSER 3.4 ESE                       5.19
BLUEFIELD/MERCER CO. ARPT            4.49
MORGANTOWN/HART FIELD                4.44
CLARKSBURG/BENEDUM ARPT              3.95
BECKLEY MEMORIAL ARPT                3.92
BLUEFIELD/MERCER CO ARPT             3.76
ELKINS/RANDOLPH FIELD                3.56
MARTINSBURG RGNL ARPT                3.03
MORGANTOWN                           2.99
PARKERSBURG/WILSON                   2.64

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 500 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RYAN

Tropical Storm Maria has formed. More details coming soon….

Atlantic Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Number 4

WTNT34 KNHC 071457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011

…AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…13.0N 42.0W
ABOUT 1220 MI…1965 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1305 MI…2095 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM
MARIA…THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 1100
AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH…37 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH…85
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Yet another tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic and her name is Maria. We are almost tied for the 2005 season in the number of storms for the time period. With that said, we have been fortunate so far given the number of named storms. Let us hope our fortune continues.

Maria is in an area of vertical wind shear and almost all the models do not show a huge amount if intensification. That is the good news. The official forecast track is also good news if it holds, at least for Florida. It will be a very close shave for the Bahamas. The track is probably more similar to Irene then to Katia.

Maria is a 50 MPH tropical storm but it is not all that well developed as of yet.

We all need to watch to be sure the system takes the curve in the location forecast. At this point there is no need to panic but I always recommend being ready just in case. We have plenty of time to track this system.

Atlantic Tropical Storm MARIA Advisory Number 4

Hi everybody. We are tracking Katia, Maria and now Nate. Katia is going harmlessly out to sea. Maria is still a tropical storm and it is not even certain at this time if there is still a closed circulation. Maria is expected to be near or over the Central Bahamas in about 5 days but the forecast calls for her to stay a tropical storm. She does not pose a major risk as of this writing. We will have to keep on eye on her as she moves very close to our region. In her present atate, almost all the bad weather is on the right side of the storm which is the side that would be away from us.

Tropical storm Nate will be a player in the Gulf later this week as the system moves slowly towards Mexico or southern Texas. This system would bring relief to the draught if it made a more northerly move towards Texas. Nate could become a hurricane but then shear and dry air will stop the intensification process and keep in in check. That would be good news for wherever the cyclone makes landfall.

Hurricane Central

Hi everybody. At 2 PM, Maria is barely a tropical storm and it may be downgraded to an open low at the next advisory…

WTNT34 KNHC 081738
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

…MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.0N 52.0W
ABOUT 605 MI…975 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…MONTSERRAT…NEVIS…AND SAINT KITTS.
* ST BARTHELEMY…ST MARTEEN…GUADELOUPE…AND MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA.
* ST.MAARTIN…SABA…AND ST. EUSTATIUS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS…AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA …PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…65
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MARIA COULD BE DEGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME…AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL CHECK THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. HOWEVER…EVEN IF MARIA BECOMES
A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY…THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD OF
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. La Nina has officially returned. La Nina is an abnormal cooling of the ocean in the Pacific. La Nina is what caused the extreme snowfall in the northeast and the draught in the south including Texas. These conditions are likely to return this winter to offer a repeat of last year. It will likely be another season of crazy weather. La Nina also helps to increase the number of tropical systems as is evident so far this season.

As of this writing, none of the systems appear to be an immediate threat to the US. Maria should stay off shore the east coast and recurve out to sea.                                                                                                                                                                                                                           For the latest Tropical Updates visit http://hometownweather.net .
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In 1938, a storm of unprecedented force hit New England. It was called the Long Island Express. 73 years ago, lives along the Long Island and New England coast were changed forever.

In 1938, a storm was brewing the coast of Africa. Back in that day, storm reports were made from ships at sea. There were no radar beams and no jets to monitor the storms. There were only 2 weather service forecast offices along the east coast. One was in Jacksonville and the other in Washington DC. The Jacksonville office was following the storm and saw according to ship reports that the storm was heading towards Miami. The weather service put out warnings by telegraph to warn of the potential risk. Later in the week, forecasters determined that a high pressure area would turn the storm north. Ship reports confirmed this turn and then the forecasters lifted the warnings for Florida but issued warnings for Virginia. As the storm moved north as dozens of storms have done in the past, forecasters assume that the system will fall apart in the cold waters of the Atlantic. In a couple of days, forecasters will realize that they were deadly wrong.

After the storm passed to the north of Florida, the Washington DC office was now in charge of tracking the system. The office consists of 2 experienced meteorologists that mainly rely on old patterns to do the forecasting. They assume that the cyclone will recurve to the northeast as dozens have done in the past. No mention of a hurricane is in the forecast for the north east.

Meanwhile a new forecaster at the DC office reports to work and learns of the storm offshore. Since they issued a warning, there are no ships at sea near Virginia to offer reports. An exception is a ship near shore Virginia that is reporting battering waves and a barometer of  less then 28 inches. A new record for the north Atlantic. This should of been a warning sign that the storm is much farther west then they thought. Again, there is no mention of hurricane in the forecast. The new forecaster, Charlie Pierce,  relies more on weather data then on previous tracks. He works up a model and learns that the storm is caught between two high pressure areas and has no place to go but north into Long Island. He presents this dates to the senior forecasters and again they do not listen and again no warnings are issued. The senior forecasters will soon learn that the new forecaster was dead on in his forecast.

As the storm brushes the New Jersey coast, famous boardwalks along the shore are ripped apart by the huge waves. Still no mention of a hurricane in the forecast.

This hurricane was unique in the fact that it was being channeled between two high pressure areas and a strong jet stream. This combination was taking a 100 MPH hurricane almost 500 miles wide on a forward speed of 50 MPH. This forward speed combined with the 100 MPH winds was like a 150 MPH hurricane hitting land. The fast forward speed did not allow the cyclone to weaken.

Meanwhile, people up and down the Long Island and New England Coast are enjoying their last day of the summer season at their beachfront homes, not knowing what is coming towards them.

On September 21, 1938 the hurricane makes landfall suddenly and without warning. The storm pushed a 20 foot storm surge on shore along with 50 foot waves on top of that. New York City reports wind gusts of 125 mph that sways the Empire State Building. The actress Katherine Hepburn was one of the survivors of the storm that had to fight for survival. People were swept out of their homes and had to hang on to makeshift rafts in order to try to survive.

The storm was moving so fast that it barely had a chance to weaken as it moved inland causing widespread flooding throughout the region.

The 1938 hurricane still has lingering effects as it created the Shinnecock Inlet and made the Moriches Inlet. History shows that these storms are rare and need a certain number of Key ingredients to occur. If a storm like the Long Island Express were to hit today, it would be the worst disaster in US history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. With the exception of Maria, the tropics are quiet for this time of year thanks in part to dry air and wind shear. There is nothing on the immediate horizon to watch and Maria is safely going out to sea. Enjoy the quiet and the touch of fall in the air. The dry air is in part due to the offshore hurricanes. It wont be long and we will be tracking Nor’easters and winter storms. Enjoy the weekend! The rain chances increase to 20% for Saturday and Sunday. The chances are near 0 for the next two days.

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Hi all. We are watching Invest 98 in the far eastern Atlantic. Right now the odds favor the system staying in the Caribbean and to our south. There is currently a 60% chance that this system will turn into a tropical cyclone. In addition, it is quite possible that the system will remain weak as most of the cyclones have so far this year. Not a concern at this time but something to watch.

Interactive Tropical Map

Invest 98 Models

The wave 98L in the Central Atlantic is close to becoming a tropical storm or depression. It is expected to go generally westward and with the pressures strong to the north and the relatively weak nature of the storm, odds favor a track into the Caribbean. The models are spread out quite a bit in the later part of the forecast but the odds are still favoring it to stay south of us.

A recon is expected to fly into the system tomorrow if necessary. Those in the Leeward Islands and the rest of the Caribbean should watch this system closely.

 

Interactive Tropical Maps

Invest 98 Model Forecasts

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A
SINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z
SHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER…AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
OPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED…WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED
WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD…THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME…THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME…ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS…LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8…DUE TO THE
RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME…THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES…WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD…BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

Hurricane Central

Model Runs

Interactive Tropical Information

Hi everybody. Last night we named the next tropical system and her name is Ophelia. She is currently a weak tropical storm and will most likely remain a tropical storm through the forecast period. Ophelia is being steered by a sub tropical ridge and a weakness in this ridge later in the period should allow her to turn more west northwest or north west. Most of the models are agreeing on keeping her east of the US at this time. Regardless, she is probably going to stay on the weak side as has been the trend throughout the season. It will still be worth watching just to be sure there are no surprises, I currently pot this system very low on the hype list.

Hurricane Central

Model Runs

Interactive Tropical Information

Hi everybody. A disturbance in the Bahamas will bring an increased chance of rain today. Rain chances are 70% with heavy rain and thunderstorms possible.

<!–

//–>

NowCast

ZoneCast

Warnings/Advisories

Hourly Track

Special

StateCast

Radar

Port Saint Lucie, Florida (34953)

Lat: 27.29N, Lon: 80.35W Wx Zone: FLZ059 ICAO Used: KSUA

Current Conditions Updated: 9:47 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011	Sun & Moon Information
Partly Cloudy Temp: 82°F Humidity: 84% Wind Speed: W6.9MPH(6KT) Barometer: 29.97 in. Dewpoint: 77°F Heat Index: 90°F Wind Chill: 82°F	Civil Twilight: 6:47 AM EDT Moon Phase: Waning Crescent Moon Sunrise: 7:10 AM EDT Sunset: 7:14 PM EDT Civil Twilight: 7:37 PM EDT

Forecast for Port Saint Lucie, Florida: Dated: 1005 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011    Expires: 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011 7 Day View

TODAY	TONIGHT	MONDAY	MONDAY NIGHT	TUESDAY	TUESDAY NIGHT
Showers And T-Storms	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm
Hi: 90°F	Lo: 75°F	Hi: 90°F	Lo: 71°F	Hi: 91°F	Lo: 71°F
Pop: 70%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 50%	Pop: 30%	Pop: 30%	Pop: 20%

ZoneCast: Dated: 1005 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011    Expires: 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011

Includes the Counties: St. Lucie, Martin Includes the cities: Fort Pierce, Hobe Sound Today…Partly cloudy through early afternoon then considerable cloudiness. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some storms May produce heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Highs around 90. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. Tonight…Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through midnight…Then considerable cloudiness with isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday…Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through late morning…Then scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Monday Night…Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Tuesday…Partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent. Wednesday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent. Wednesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Thursday…Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent. Thursday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Friday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Friday Night…Partly cloudy. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent. Saturday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Both Ophelia and Pilippe are both encountering strong wind shear and neither will affect any land areas. Ophelia is basically an open wave and will most likely loose the tropical classification soon. The area just off the coast of Miami is moving west and from n organization standpoint, actually looks better then Ophelia. There are no plans to classify this system as of this writing. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be possible today as a result. There is a 70% chance here in South Florida,

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Hi everybody. Thanks to the tropical disturbance, we are again expecting a 70% chance of rain tomorrow. Rain could be heavy at times with a chance of thunderstorms.

Port Saint Lucie, Florida (34953)

Lat: 27.29N, Lon: 80.35W Wx Zone: FLZ059 ICAO Used: KSUA

Current Conditions Updated: 6:47 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011	Sun & Moon Information
Mostly Cloudy Temp: 77°F Humidity: 83% Wind Speed: S6.9MPH(6KT) Barometer: 29.93 in. Dewpoint: 72°F Heat Index: 77°F Wind Chill: 77°F	Civil Twilight: 6:47 AM EDT Moon Phase: Waning Crescent Moon Sunrise: 7:10 AM EDT Sunset: 7:14 PM EDT Civil Twilight: 7:37 PM EDT

Forecast for Port Saint Lucie, Florida: Dated: 337 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011    Expires: 415 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 7 Day View

TONIGHT	MONDAY	MONDAY NIGHT	TUESDAY	TUESDAY NIGHT	WEDNESDAY
Thunder Storms	T-Storms	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm
Lo: 75°F	Hi: 89°F	Lo: 71°F	Hi: 91°F	Lo: 71°F	Hi: 90°F
Pop: 40%	Pop: 70%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 20%	Pop: 30%

ZoneCast: Dated: 337 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011    Expires: 415 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011

Includes the Counties: St. Lucie, Martin Includes the cities: Fort Pierce, Hobe Sound Tonight…Considerable cloudiness. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through midnight…Then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday…Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms through late morning…Then considerable cloudiness with numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. Monday Night…Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through midnight…Then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. Tuesday…Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms through late morning…Then scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. South winds around 5 mph becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming south after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent. Wednesday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Chance of rain 30 percent. Wednesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Thursday…Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent. Thursday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Friday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Friday Night…Partly cloudy. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 20 percent. Saturday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent. Saturday Night…Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 20 percent. Sunday…Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Ophelia and Philippe are doing a flip-flop. Ohelia had become a remnant low but is back to Tropical Depression status as the shear relaxed and convection rebuilt near an elongated center. Ophelia is just about stationary roughly 240 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. A slow movement to the northwest and north northwest is forecast with improving chances for additional intensification. The NHC track takes Ophelia east of Bermuda as a Cat I hurricane Saturday evening.

Philippe, under strong west southwesterly windshear is doing just the opposite. Philippe is a weakening tropical storm that is likely to dwindle to tropical depression status and remain that way – or become an open wave – for the next few days. Philippe should move northwest and then take a more westerly track as high pressure builds to the north of the system this weekend. Click here for the latest storm information.

Hi everybody. A low pressure area is expected to develop later this week that will increase our rain chances in Florida. In addition, models are forecasting a tropical system spinning up from the stalled front that sits in the Caribbean. This could pose a tropical threat to Florida if this system indeed develops. We will be carefully watching this scenario as it develops. Expect the rain chances to start to increase on Thursday.We will be watching this scenario carefully all week. As soon as any invests come about, you will know immediately. this is just a heads up and a reminder that we are still in the lower peak of hurricane season.

Home Town Weather

Hi everybody. Over the past couple of hours, a strong pressure gradient has been developing which is increasing the winds at the surface as well as increasing the moisture. Think of this as 2 wheels spinning in opposite directions. This type of rotation causes a pressure gradient which in turn will increase the wind field at the surface. In addition, we will be watching this area over the next few days as some models are showing a potential tropical entity forming near Florida. It is important to note that even though we are in October, we are not clear of the peak season. The main difference is that this time of year we look closer to home for tropical development, not the open Atlantic as we did earlier in the season. The rain chances will be steadily increasing through the week with the best chance of rain on Saturday.It will remain breezy through the period. Like I mentioned before, we will be closely watching for any tropical development near Florida. If that happens, it would probably be early next week. Stay tuned!

For the most part, the weather in Central Florida will be breezy today with a chance of a scattered shower. Tomorrow, we are looking at breezy with a 30% chance of rain. Friday the rain chance will be around 40% and Saturday around 50%.

Home Town weather

Your weather forecast by Zip Code

 

 

 

You can plainly see the stalled front just south of Florida in this satellite loop. That will be the origin of the tropical system.

http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Atlantic_Satellite.html

 

Hi everybody. The models are still showing a tropical or sub tropical system forming near Florida and moving north. It is still unknown if this low will be on the Atlantic or Gulf side of the state. If the system forms on the Gulf side, we will have a better chance of tornado activity with the storm. Models are quite consistent with this development and it is now mentioned in the NWS long range outlook for East Central Florida……

SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK…THE GFS CONTINUES RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO HYBRID (SUBTROPICAL) LOW LIFTING
NORTHWARD. THE 00Z RUN SHOWED MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THE ECMWF HAS HAD BETTER CONSISTENCY AND HPC
PROGS HAVE FAVORED ITS SOLUTION WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING
NORTHWARD IN THE EASTERN GULF. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS WIND GRIDS WHICH WERE FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION.

BOTH TRACKS WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN…GALE FORCE WINDS AND BEACH
EROSION. THE GULF TRACK WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

THE EXACT TIMING FOR THIS EVENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES…BUT GENERALLY THINK THAT THE INITIAL LOW
FORMATION…ABOUT SUNDAY…WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCES ONGOING FROM SAT. AS THE LOW LIFTS CLOSER TO FLORIDA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…LOW LEVEL SHEAR WOULD INCREASE AND BRING THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. A heavy rain event is in the making. High pressure to the north is going to strengthen and create a large pressure gradient that will both produce windy conditions and frequent showers with heavy rain. This event will last through the weekend. Flood watches will likely be issued later today. There was a small stream and urban flood advisory issued earlier this morning for St Lucie County. We have already received 4.29 inches of rain at the weather station. Areas that receive rain will get torrential downpours with ponding of water on roadways. Some flooding was reported this morning in Ft Pierce. The rain chances will jump up to 70% tomorrow and will be 60% all day today. We will keep you informed on any development of the tropical low that is still forecast for early next week.

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Florida today.

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URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

FLZ041-045>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-147-082000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.A.0001.111007T2000Z-111010T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND VOLUSIA-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-
INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DE LAND…ORLANDO…SANFORD…
MELBOURNE…PALM BAY…KISSIMMEE…ST CLOUD…VERO BEACH…
OKEECHOBEE…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND…DAYTONA BEACH…
TITUSVILLE
236 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA…INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS…COASTAL VOLUSIA…INDIAN RIVER…INLAND
VOLUSIA…MARTIN…NORTHERN BREVARD…OKEECHOBEE…ORANGE…
OSCEOLA…SEMINOLE…SOUTHERN BREVARD AND ST. LUCIE.

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH. UPWARDS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ALREADY TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE
OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. INLAND AREAS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES
LOCALLY. THESE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

BOWEN/PENDERGRAST

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. The low pressure area to our south is now an Invest and is being watched by the hurricane center. We are in for a heavy rain event no matter how much development we get. This system could produce gale force winds and rain that could be close to that of Fay in some locations. Flood watches are in place through Sunday night. I have activated the High Res Radar http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html .

I will keep you posted through out the day as the system moves up the coast.The rain chances today are up to 90% and 80% tonight. Tomorrow, the rain chances in East Central Florida decrease a bit to 60%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. Satellite images and pressure readings are indicating that the low pressure area near the Florida Straits is beginning to get better organized. Pressures are dropping in this area as well. as a result, the rain chances for tomorrow have been increased to 80%. The area has a medium chance of becoming a tropical storm. Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds will be the rule as the system moves north or northwest near or over Florida. You should stay tuned in case a tropical system forms. There will be very short notice if indeed this happens as some of the models are forecasting. I am going to do a model run and I will include that in another e mail. Here are links to some radar sites and satellite feeds.

Florida High Resolution Radar

Close Range Treasure Coast Radar

Live weather cam and NOAA weather radio feed from Ft Pierce

Port St Lucie Live Weather Station.

Key West Radar

RELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       39 E UNION PARK         28.56N 80.59W
10/08/2011  M1.91 INCH       AMZ552             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            1.91 INCHES OF RAIN IN PAST FOUR HOURS ENDING AT 3 PM.
            STANDING WATER IN YARD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW GIFFORD           27.67N 80.45W
10/08/2011                   INDIAN RIVER       FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            INDIAN RIVER SHERIFF REPORTED POWER LINES AND PINE TREE
            DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF 41ST STREET AND 58TH COURT IN
            VERO BEACH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW GIFFORD           27.67N 80.45W
10/08/2011                   INDIAN RIVER       FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            INDIAN RIVER SHERIFF REPORTED POWER LINES AND PINE TREE
            DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF 41ST STREET AND 58TH COURT IN
            VERO BEACH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND GST     MELBOURNE               28.08N 80.61W
10/08/2011  M44 MPH          BREVARD            FL   ASOS            

            KMLB ASOS AT MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED A
            WIND GUST OF 38 KT/44 MPH FROM 080 DEGREES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     HIGH SURF        JACKSONVILLE BEACH      30.28N 81.39W
10/08/2011                   DUVAL              FL   PUBLIC          

            A SURF REPORT WEBSITE REPORTED BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7
            FEET AT THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER WITH OCCASIONAL 8 FT
            BREAKERS. 

0155 PM     HIGH SURF        FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W
10/08/2011                   FLAGLER            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIAL REPORTED BREAKER
            HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET AT THE FLAGLER BEACH PIER. THERE
            WAS NO BEACH EROSION OBSERVED. THE INTERCOASTAL WATERWAY
            WAS NEAR THE TOP OF THE SEAWALL IN FLAGLER BEACH. 

Hi everybody. The low pressure area has yet to develop a closed circulation. There have been reports of tropical storm force winds in many areas along the coast. The main rain shield is now offshore but smaller spotty showers are streaming in like flies. The heaviest rain is now in the Tampa Bay area. Rain chances are still at 80% today but will taper off to only 30% by tonight as the low begins to leave the area. I do not see a widespread rain event today in our region but areas to the north of us may see some interaction from the large rain area just offshore. We will certainly keep a watch on this system throughout the day. You can follow the radar action right here

http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Florida_Doppler_radar_Loops.html  or you can view our Hi Res Special Storm Tracker here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_Radar.html

Hi everybody. The low pressure area just to our east has formed into Invest 93. Although the low does not have a defined circulation, the area still has the potential to develop. Since we are now on the south side of the system in Ft Pierce, winds have subsided along with the rain. If you live from Indian River County North, winds will be much stronger and the chance of rain will be higher. The system is forecast to move along the coast and up towards Georgia and the Carolinas according to the model runs. The Hi Res Doppler clearly shows the rotation just offshore.

Hi everybody. We have updated some of the older radar feeds for Florida. We are now either using the composite reflectivity or the new Hi Res reflectivity feeds. The Hi Res replaces the old 0.5 reflectivity that had the circle around the radar. This feed uses smaller pixels to display the radar images and allows for more accuracy. In addition, it adds more miles to the radar range and is no longer limited to the area within the circle. We will soon update all our cities to these two formats. In the coming months, all radar stations in the US will be undergoing an overhaul that will add even more products for us to view and the old 0.5 reflectivity will be dropped from the servers. The radars that have changed formats are Miami, Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Kew West. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Florida_Doppler_radar_Loops.html . Your input on the formats is always welcome!          Joe

 

Hi everybody. Invest 93 is now located over inland North Florida and is moving primarily to the NW. Winds at Cape Canaveral were reported at up to 75 MPH and when the storm passed over a near shore buoy, the pressure dropped over 8MB to 999.7. The temperature also increased by 4 degrees. This is a good indication that this low had tropical characteristics. I think after the analysis is done, this will be classified as a tropical or sub tropical storm. I have reports of quite a bit of damage in Flagler county. Storm damage reports are still being received. The areas to our north into Georgia and South Carolina are now under flood watches.

You may of noticed the winds increase during the afternoon yesterday along the Treasure Coast. This is when the system was starting to crank up. I think the close interaction with land is what really stopped it from winding up into a full fledged storm. The system is bringing in some nice weather behind it.

The system made an official landfall at Cape Canaveral.

You can see on Jacksonville Radar that the rain bands are now pounding the Savannah, Georgia area. The rain will gradually spread north into South Carolina and Charleston.  

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1105 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S ROCKLEDGE           28.26N 80.73W
10/10/2011  E0.00 INCH       BREVARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER IN ROCKLEDGE MEASURED 9.86 INCHES TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM STORM EVENT.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1106 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0304 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W
10/10/2011  M44 MPH          FLAGLER            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED MEASURED WIND GUST TO 44 MPH AT
FLAGLER BEACH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1105 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

..TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
..DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S ROCKLEDGE           28.26N 80.73W
10/10/2011  E0.00 INCH       BREVARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER IN ROCKLEDGE MEASURED 9.86 INCHES TOTAL
RAINFALL FROM STORM EVENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1103 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0230 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NE BUNNELL            29.49N 81.23W
10/10/2011                   FLAGLER            FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE RESCUE REPORTED TREE DOWN ON HOUSE WITH ROOF DAMAGED
AT 2 ESPERANTO DRIVE. RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1110 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0235 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PALM COAST              29.57N 81.21W
10/10/2011                   FLAGLER            FL   911 CALL CENTER

FLAGLER COUNTY DISPATCH HAD MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE. RELAYED BY EMERGENCY
MANAGER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1029 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW AZALEA PARK        28.52N 81.32W
10/10/2011  M9.35 INCH       ORANGE             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER MEASURED 9.35 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL FROM
STORM EVENT.

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Your Latest Florida Weather Information

...Wind and rain event October 7-10 2011 for east central Florida...

...Highest rain total nearly 17 inches for this event...

Top 5 peak wind gusts (all from 10/9):

Speed(mph)          location            time(edt)      source
   81       2 mi SSE Playalinda Beach    1020pm      USAF 60ft tower
   78       3 mi se Playalinda Beach     1020pm      USAF 60ft tower
   75       3 mi E Haulover canal        1030pm      USAF 54ft tower
   75       2 mi SSE Playalinda Beach     945pm      USAF 60ft tower
   69       3 mi SSE Playalinda Beach     945pm      USAF 60ft tower

Select peak wind gusts (from 10/9 unless otherwise noted):

Speed(mph)          location                       time(edt)
   60         Patrick airforce base (kcof)           638pm
   55         New Smyrna Beach Airport (kevb)        647pm
   55         Titusville Airport (ktix)              713pm
   54         Melbourne Airport (kmlb)               534pm
   52         Vero Beach Airport (kvrb)              628pm
   51         Daytona Beach Airport (kdab)     4x beginning 856pm
   46         Fort Pierce Airport (kfpr)     1101pm(10/8),303am(10/9)
   46         Witham Field Airport (ksua)            555pm (10/8)
   40         Orlando int'l Airport (kmco)           207pm
   40         Orlando exec Airport  (korl)           222pm
   39         Orlando Sanford Airport (ksfb)         541pm
   35         Leesburg Airport (klee)                152pm

Marine/coastal observations...

Location     min   date/    Max      date/     peak      date
             pres  time     sust     time      gust      time
             (mb)  (utc)    (kt)     (utc)     (kt)      (utc)
buoy 41009   999.5 10/0120  300/045  10/0120   300/058   10/0120
Trident pier 999.5 10/0342  360/031  10/0242   360/050   10/0242
Patrick AFB  ----- -------  030/042  09/2255   030/052   09/2238

Location     highest  date/
             seas     time
             (ft)     (utc)
buoy 41009   22 ft    09/2350
buoy 41114   16 ft    09/1916
buoy 41113   10 ft    09/2221 

Three day rainfall totals thru 7am EDT 10/10:

Rainfall amount          location
    16.79"          Yeehaw Junction 8 W (yehf1)
    15.55"          4.8 mi W Vero Beach (fl-IR-33)
    14.82" **       1.0 mi NE Palm Bay (fl-bv-14)
    13.42"          Yeehaw Junction west (ksaf1)
    12.58"          1.5 mi WSW Vero Beach (fl-IR-15)
    12.31"          3.4 mi W Vero Beach (fl-IR-24)
    12.17"          Palm Bay regional park (plbf1)
    12.08"          4.3 mi NNW Palm Shores (fl-bv-20)
    11.61"          1.4 mi W Palm Shores (fl-bv2)
    11.53"          2.4 mi W Vero Beach (fl-IR-6)
    11.52"          1 mi W Kenansville (kenf1)
    11.49"          2.9 mi NW Palm Shores (fl-bv-16)
    11.26"          Vero Beach Airport (kvrb)
    11.00" **       12.5 mi NNW Melbourne (fl-bv-39)
    10.23"          2.5 mi S Vero Beach (fl-IR-27)
    10.11"          3.1 mi NNW Palm Bay (fl-bv-5)
    10.10"          3.9 mi E Union Park (fl-or-9)
     9.99"          2.6 mi SSE Palm Bay (fl-bv-1)
     9.97"          Kissimmee lake (kisf1)
     9.86"          1.1 WSW Rockledge (fl-bv-13)
     9.94"          0.6 mi ESE Cape Canaveral (fl-bv-12)
     9.95"          4 mi se Vero Beach (vrbf1)
     9.80"          5.2 mi S Vero Beach (fl-IR-32)
     9.49"          2.6 mi WNW Cocoa (fl-bv-23)
     9.43"          0.9 mi N Chuluota (fl-sm-8)
     9.41"          2.9 mi SSE Union Park (fl-or-1)
     9.39"          9.1 mi N Merritt Island (fl-bv-36)
     9.34"          Bithlo 10ssw (welf1)
     9.08"          3.5 mi NW Titusville (fl-bv-38)
     9.03"          NWS Melbourne (mlbf1)
     8.95"          Titusville 8ene (ctkf1)
     8.81"          3.4 mi SSW Vero Beach south (fl-IR-31)
     8.64"          4.1 mi NE Merritt Island (fl-bv-32)
     8.49"          6.5 mi WNW Cape Canaveral (fl-bv-42)
     8.45"          2.4 mi W Vero Beach (fl-IR-8)
     8.34"          3.5 mi SSW Vero Beach (fl-IR-26)
     8.24"          1.7 mi SSE Sebastian (fl-IR-22)
     7.95"          1.3 mi E Orlando (fl-or-14)
     7.94"          2.0 mi ENE Orlando (fl-or-17)
     7.85"          2 mi SW Kissimmee (kisf1)
     7.83"          9.1 mi WSW Daytona Beach (fl-vl-12)
     7.81"          1.2 ENE Orlando (fl-or-13)
     7.76"          2.0 mi SSW Sebastian (fl-IR-19)
     7.80"          Merritt Island 20n (mrff1)
     7.58"          6.0 mi SSE Vero Beach (fl-IR-29)
     7.54"          2.1 mi ESE Winter Park (fl-or-9)
     7.33"          Orlando Sanford Airport (ksfb)
     7.19"          2.3 mi WNW Longwood (fl-sm-5)
     7.11"          Orlando int'l Airport (kmco)
     7.04"          1.1 mi NE Sebastian (fl-IR-4)
     6.83"          2 mi NNW Scottsmoor (scmf1)
     6.82"          1.8 mi NNW Forest City (fl-sm-15)
     6.75"          Melbourne Airport (kmlb)
     6.65"          0.5 mi SW Lakewood Park (fl-sl-4)
     6.39"          Lake Mary 5wnw (lspf1)
     6.27"          3.9 mi NW Hobe Sound (fl-Mt-5)
     6.25"          Fort Pierce Airport (kfpr)
     6.24"          0.5 mi SSW Orange City (fl-vl-14)
     6.18"          2.5 mi W DeBary (fl-vl-17)
     6.16"          1.5 mi E New Smyrna Beach (fl-vl-1)
     5.80"          5 mi NNE Sanford (sfnf1)
     5.67"          Lake Louisa State Park (clrf1)
     5.39"          4.5 mi NW Deland (fl-vl-3)
     5.32"          Windermere (orwf1)
     5.15"          0.2 mi WSW Mount Plymouth (fl-lk-5)
     5.13"          Lorida east (kref1)
     5.04"          1 mi SSE Deland (delf1)
     4.97"          2.4 mi N port St Lucie (fl-sl-22)
     4.95"          3.2 mi N port St Lucie (fl-sl-2)
     4.93"          1 mi NW Titusville (titf1)
     4.92"          3 mi N Plymouth (pltf1)
     4.79"          Carlton 4n (tmwf1)
     4.54"          Fort Pierce 8w (ncsf1)
     4.36"          1 mi SSW Daytona Beach (diaf1)
     4.35"          5 mi W Port Salerno (ptsf1)
     4.34"          4.0 mi NE port St Lucie (fl-sl-19)
     4.33"          Daytona Beach Airport (kdab)
     4.00"          4.3 mi SSW Clermont (fl-lk-15)
     3.99"          1 mi N Stuart (strf1)
     3.83"          1.0 mi ESE Stuart (fl-Mt-18)
     3.77"          4.0 mi SW Palm City (fl-Mt-1)
     3.57"          1.2 mi se Eustis (fl-lk-2)
     3.48"          2 mi NW Fort Pierce (fpcf1)
     3.45"          Pierson 2wsw (lgrf1)
     3.85"          3.6 mi E Clermont (fl-lk-14)
     3.38"          0.4 mi SW Clermont (fl-lk-10)
     3.22"          2.4 mi SSW port St Lucie (fl-sl-13)
     2.90"          Nettles Island (netf1)
     2.84"          1 mi S Lisbon (lsbf1)
     2.68"          1.7 mi E Groveland (fl-lk-3)
     2.44"          Leesburg Airport (klee)
     2.10"          1 mi NW Okeechobee (okif1)

** 2 day rainfall total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. As we approach mid October we are usually not thinking “Tropical Storm”, but those thoughts might have to change. The remnants of a tropical system that crossed from the Pacific to the Atlantic may re-develop into into a tropical system. Once the system crosses the Yucatan, it may reform and all the global models have it crossing some portion of Florida. The models are spread from North Florida to South Florida but The area from Central Florida and south looks like the most likely candidate. A recon is scheduled to check out the system tomorrow. This system is in a similar location of Wilma in 2005. The conditions are not as conductive to development so rapid intensification is not likely but a steady intensification as it moves towards Florida is possible. This is a system to watch, and if it hits it will be a backdoor storm. As you know, these type of storms can be extremely wet and bring copious amounts of rain. Regardless of development, our rain chances will be increasing this week with a 60% chance on Monday and a 80% chance on Tuesday. The winds will be gusty. We will be watching this scenario very carefully through the week.

Latest Model Runs

Complete Tropical Information

Complete Florida Radar Suite

Hi everybody. Invest 95 has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm or depression. The rain affecting us today is directly associated with that system. There is a short window for the system to develop and an aircraft RECON mission is expected today. The system will begin moving north and south and central Florida should start getting wet. Today should be relatively warm but Tuesday and Wednesday will be very wet and cool. Late this week after the system passes, temperatures will drop to the coldest of the season so far with lows in the 50′s for East Central Florida.Rain chances are 60 to 70 percent throughout the period. The low on Thursday night should be around 50 and the high on Thursday will be a pleasant 79 in East Central Florida..

Latest interactive tropical map.

Latest Model Runs

Hi everybody. There is a tornado watch in effect. Severe weather will approach Lake O around 5 PM and hit the coast by 7 tonight. We will keep you updated as this scenerio unfolds.

Tornado Watch 867 is in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the
following locations

FL
.    Florida counties included are

Broward              Charlotte           Collier
Glades               Hendry              Highlands
Indian River         Lee                 Martin
Miami-Dade           Monroe              Okeechobee
Palm Beach           St. Lucie

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WWUS20 KWNS 181819
SEL7
SPC WW 181819
FLZ000-CWZ000-190200-

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
MEYERS FLORIDA TO 50 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FL WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH THETA-E
VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE…COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

..HART

$$

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hi everybody. The tornado watch has been extended till 6 AM tomorrow morning. In addition, a gale warning is in effect for the coastal regions. Severe damage was reported in Indiantown with most of the city without power. Storms are still possible overnight with a chance of a tornado. Tomorrow will be windy with rain in the AM and then turning cooler.

Florida Live Radar

FLZ054-059-064-190800- INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…VERO BEACH…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND 1006 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011 ..TORNADO WATCH 868 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY… TONIGHT…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. THURSDAY NIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT…CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. $$

NWUS52 KMLB 190223
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1023 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INDIANTOWN              27.02N 80.47W
10/18/2011                   MARTIN             FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            1 BUILDING DESTROYED, 1 HOME UNINHABITABLE, LOTS OF TREE
            DEBRIS. POWER LINES DOWN, INDIANTOWN WITHOUT POWER

&&

$$

FXD

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS52 KMFL 190247
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1047 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TORNADO          LAKEPORT                26.98N 81.13W
10/18/2011                   GLADES             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED MINOR DAMAGE TO 40 HOMES
            IN LAKEPORT. WEATHER EVENT IS PRELIMINARY, BASED ON RADAR
            DATA, PENDING STORM SURVEY.

&&

$$

BETTWY

NWUS52 KMLB 190147
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT PIERCE             27.44N 80.32W
10/18/2011  M48 MPH          ST. LUCIE          FL   ASOS            

            KFPR ASOS ST. LUCIE COUNTY AIRPORT OBSERVATION 0121Z WIND
            18023G42KT AND REMARK PK WND 24042/0121

0928 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW INDIANTOWN        27.05N 80.48W
10/18/2011                   MARTIN             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            BARN KNOCKED DOWN. REPORTED BY MARTIN COUNTY SHERIFF.

&&

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS52 KMLB 190252
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1052 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW INDRIO            27.56N 80.37W
10/18/2011                   INDIAN RIVER       FL   EMERGENCY MNGR  

            22ND PLACE SE IN VERO BEACH JUST EAST OF US1. COUNTY EM
            REPORTED TORNADO DAMAGE, ROOF REMOVED.

&&

$$

FXD

Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
NWUS52 KMFL 190137
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKEPORT                26.98N 81.13W
10/18/2011                   GLADES             FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT 

            GLADES COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED THAT LOOP
            ROAD...ALSO CALLED COUNTY ROUTE 721...WAS CLOSED DUE TO
            DOWNED POWER LINES.

NWUS52 KKEY 190016
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
816 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY            24.63N 81.11W
10/18/2011  M39 MPH          GMZ043             FL   C-MAN STATION   

            A 34 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED BY THE C-MAN STATION AT
            SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT.

&&

$$

MPARKE

NWUS52 KKEY 182224
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
624 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E KEY WEST            24.56N 81.76W
10/18/2011  M40 MPH          LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL   MESONET         

            THE RSOIS ANEMOMETER AT THE KEY WEST WEATHER FORECAST
            OFFICE MEASURED A GUST OF 35 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A
            RAPIDLY MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

NWUS52 KMFL 191744
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

1007 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW DAVIE             26.13N 80.33W
10/18/2011                   BROWARD            FL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF-2 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY NWS SURVEY IN SUNRISE/PLANTAION
AREA WITH MAX WINDS OF 120 MPH. PATH LENGTH 1.11 MILES
WITH A MAX WIDTH OF 125 YARDS. UP TO 50 HOMES DAMAGED,
AND AT LEAST A DOZEN HOMES WITH SIGNIFICANT TO SEVERE
DAMAGE. ROOF COMPLETELY REMOVED FROM TWO HOMES. TWO
TRAILER HOMES SHIFTED OFF FOUNDATION WITH MOST OF ITS
NWUS52 KMLB 191746
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2011

.TIME…   …EVENT…      …CITY LOCATION…     …LAT.LON…
.DATE…   ….MAG….      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. …SOURCE….
..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TORNADO          INDIANTOWN              27.02N 80.47W
10/18/2011                   MARTIN             FL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            TWO STORY SINGLE FAMILY HOME WITH A FEW WINDOWS BLOWN IN
AND SOME SIDING REMOVED. BARN ROOF COLLAPSED. COMMERCIAL
BUILDING WITH ROOF REMOVED AND CARRIED UPWIND WITH MOST
FRONT WINDOWS BROKEN. NUMEROUS LARGE HARDWOOD TREE
BRANCHES DOWN. ONE PINE TREE BLOWN OVER. STRONG EF-0 WITH
WINDS 80-85 MPH. PATH 2/10 MILE LONG, 85 YARDS WIDE.

           WALLS COLLAPSED.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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i everybody. Tropical storm Rina has formed and is in a similar location as Wilma in 2005.The system is currently a tropical storm and could become a minimal hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan. Models are mixed and some take the system inland while a few bring it across Florida from the back side. The future track will be determined some by how strong the system gets. A stronger system will more likely follow the models that come near Florida while a weakler storm will more likely keep the system near it’s present location.Recon should be flying into the system today. I will keep you posted of any changes in the threat level.

Hurricane Central

Hurricane Rina appears to have topped out at 110 MPH. The future track is still uncertain in the latter part of the forecast so it is advisable to stay tuned until we know exactly where she might go.If it should head our way, it will likely be in a very weakened state which would give us some much needed rain.  See the latest forecast video here. You can get the latest information anytime at Hurricane Central.

 

Hi everybody. Rina continues to steadily weaken and soon will be down graded to a depression or remnant low. Rina will be pushed south by a cold front back to where it actually started doing almost a complete circle. There are 2 other areas of interest we are watching but both have a very low chance of development. There is only a small chance that Rina will re generate after weakening.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Winter Storm Warning for Northeast states…Here are the latest bulletins from Home Town Weather
WWUS41 KBOX 281927
WSWBOX

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING DAMAGING HEAVY WET SNOW TO
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT…

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-290330-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0008.111029T2100Z-111030T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0011.111029T2100Z-111030T1200Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
VERNON…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…CHARLEMONT…GREENFIELD…
ORANGE…BARRE…FITCHBURG…CHESTERFIELD…BLANDFORD…AMHERST…
NORTHAMPTON…SPRINGFIELD…MILFORD…WORCESTER…AYER…
JAFFREY…KEENE…MANCHESTER…NASHUA…PETERBOROUGH…WEARE
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY WET SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS…SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS…6 TO 12 INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

* TIMING…A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO HEAVY WET SNOW BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WILL
FALL HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS…HEAVY WET SNOW WILL RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE AND
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. THE DAMAGE COULD BE QUITE EXTENSIVE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.
UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

* WINDS…NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES…IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD…OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES…AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

$$

FRANK
http://www.massachusettsradar.com/