WTUS82 KTAE 090323
HLSTAE

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1023 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

..IDA HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST…

AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHERN GEORGIA…AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS
TO THE AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE.

ALL COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
AS THESE HAZARDS ARE NOW COVERED BY THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS.

STORM INFORMATION…
AT 10 PM EST…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST…THIS IS ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FL…OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF TALLAHASSEE FL. IDA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 14
MPH. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 105 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS…BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS. FOR INLAND LOCATIONS…TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH WINDS…BUT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PLACES
PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING…THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH HIGH
WINDS AND STORM SURGE. FOR THE MARINE WATERS…TROPICAL CYCLONE
CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

GMZ750-770-090500-
/O.UPG.KTAE.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.W.0001.091109T0323Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1023 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

..HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

$$

GODSEY

Hi everybody. Hurricane Ida is now moving a little faster and is expected to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. Although the system should be changing over to an extrtropical system, hurricane winds may still affect the Gulf coast. There after, Ida is expected to be absorbed by a low off the East Coast US and a secondarly low is expected to form. Ida is expected the strengthen further today. A hurricane watch has been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast.

Hi everybody. We are tracking Ida as still a tropical storm. The shear is not all that high right now and there is still a 24-48 hour window for Ida to become a hurricane. The new 11 PM forecast track has Ida approaching the Panhandle of Florida and then making a sharp righ turn to a Se direction late in the forecast period. Ida should be extratropical by that time. Ida may get stronger then previously forecast and may weaken slower then previously forecast as she moves through the Gulf of Mexico. As she approaches the Panhandle, wind shear should increase and begin to weaken the system. Thereafter, she will bumb into a cold front and be steered SE and eventually be absorbed by the front. This shoould complete the change to an extratropical system. Strong winds from a pressure gradient will affect the SE Gulf but are not directly associated with Ida. The following graphics show the new forecast track as well as the model runs with the 48 hour precicitation forecast. It shoyld be noted that we are currently not in the cone.

Hi everybody. Ida is now again a tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Western Cuba and the Yucatan. Global models are in good agreement that Ida will move north into the Gulf and some restrengthening is likely. Even though the Gulf waters are extremly warm, it should be noted that about a 20 knot shear will prevail. This will help to curtail any major strengthening. In the latter part of the forecast, Ida will begin a process of turning to an extratropical storm. Almost all global models show the cyclone drifting south at this time.The new forecast track and intensity forecast reflect this interaction with the shear and the trough and is in good agreement with the models. Although we are in the cone, the exact extent of a threat, if any, is not yet clear. Please moniter this situation carefully over the next few days. You can always get the latest tracks and text advisories at Hurricane Central or Home Town Weather.

 

Hi everybody. We have a new tropical system called Tropical Storm Fred. Fred will pose no risk to land so we are not going to have extensive coverage of this system. We will, however, have all updates, models and graphics as we do for any storm at the followling links

Latest Storm Models http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

Latest Text Advisories and NHC graphics http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Graphics.html

Full Atlantic and Pacific Tropical Information http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Tropical_Web_Forecasts.html

I hope everybody had a great Labor Day! Since our weather does not change a whole lot in the Fall, our “summer” will continue for several more weeks until our first cool fronts start to emerge as far south as Florida. Enjoy the “hurricane free” weather!

Hi everybody. Tropical Storm Danny has formed east of the Bahamas. Satellite imagery and NOAA aircraft have determined that a closed low is now present and TS Danny is born. Satellite images suggest that Danny is actually a cross between a tropical and sub-tropical system but since the system weighs in more on the tropical side, advisories are being issued.

Danny is on the north side of a mid level low centered over Hispanola. This should steer Danny NW with a slow down in forward speed. After that, most models agree on a trough developing over the Great Lakes. This trough should allow Danny to take a more Northerly track away from and parallel to Florida. It must be noted that certain models are indicating a landfall in eastern North Carolina and having Danny shoot up the east coast. Other models have Danny skirting the coast and going out to sea. Since the storm is new, new model data will be soon imputed as to get a better handle on the long term motion.

Intensity wise, Danny should have only slow strengthening during the first 36 hours but then start a more rapid intensification thereafter as conditions become more favorable.

All interests along the East Coast US, especially from the Carolinas North, need to monitor the progress of Danny.

Danny Text Advisories and NHC Graphics http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Graphics.html

Danny Model Tracks and Forecast Track http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

Danny Storm Floater Satellite Imagery http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_1.html

Hurricane Central http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

Hi everybody. We are curerently watching Bill take the curve away from the US. In Fact, even Bernuda will escape the worst of the system. Bill is being steered by a break in the subtropical ridge that is allowing him to recurve back to the north. In addition, a cold front moving across the Northeast is then going to give Bill the final nudge to kick him out to sea. It is still possible, however, that new England may get Tropical Storm force winds. The chance of that happenning is currently at 25%. The confidence in the current track is high and Bill should follow it accordingly.

Bill is currently brushing Bermuda with tropical storm force winds and high waves. A triopicalk storm warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Therre are currently no watches or warnings for New England but just a slight shift in the track could generate tropical storm watches in that region. Interests in New England should moniter the progress of Bill carefully.

Hurricane Bill Models http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html

Hurricane Bill Graphics and Text Advisories http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Graphics2.html

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are carefully watching Ana to be sure she behaves as forecast. The NHC is still keeping advisories on her as she has had a flare up of convection the past few hours. Looking at the Floater satellite, Ana appears to be slightly north of her forecast track. This is hard to determine, however, since there is noo defined center. If Ana continues as forecast, she will pass over the islands and most likely dissipate. If she passes north of Hispanolia, the conditions there are more conductive to development and she may reagain some strength. In addition, once she emerges into the very warm Gulf, steering currents are not as strong and a slow down in forward speed will be the result. In any rate, some increase in wind and rain will be the rule on Thursday as she makes her closest pass to our area. I must advise that advisories are still being issued and we are in the cone so having tropical conditions later in the week are not entirly out of the question so prepare accordingly.

Bill continues to stregthen over the open Atlantic and all modeles except the UKMET show Bill staying out to sea.

Ana Model Runs and Track http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

Hurricane Bill Forecast Track and Models http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html

Ana Storm Floater Satellite http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Storm_Floater_1.html

Hi everybody. The tropics remain busy but for us, things are lokking good. At 11 PM, Ana is still struggling to stay alive and advisories on her may be dropped tomorrow. Claudette is just making landfall in North Florida. Bill is probaly the only entity that is getting stronger and at present poses no threat to Florida.

Bill looks impressive and has decent banding features. The outflow is good which means the system is venting. This venting will lead to some intesification over the next couple of days. Bill continues to be steered by a large pressure ridge. This ridge is expected to steer the cyclone on a west NW course the next few days. Thereafter, a large breach in the ridge is expected to allow the more northerly component that will allow the cyclone to move more to the north. This is the entity that has probably saved us.

The model runs have again shifted to the north and the forecast has followed suit. Even though sheer is low, the ocean temperatures are only marginally warm. This is helping to keep the storm from intensifying faster. After 24 hours, the ocean temps will increase and probably allow some faster intensification. This shold allow the cyclone to blow up into a major hurricane. At the end ogf the forecast period, wind sheer is agin forecast to increase and this may call for some weakening.

Where Bill will go at the end of the forecast period is not fully known but a course out to sea is not out of the question.

Model Runs for Bill http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html

Hurricane Central  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

FXUS10 KWNH 100312
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1111 PM EDT THU OCT 09 2008

VALID OCT 10/0000 UTC THRU OCT 13/1200 UTC

MODEL INITIALIZATION…

..SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST…

MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE
TO HAVE A MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

MODEL TRENDS…

..TROF/CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST…

OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING GRADUALLY MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI-SAT…
LEADING TO A MODEST SEWD/EWD ADJUSTMENT OF THE MID LVL TROF AND
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW BY SUN.  AT THE SFC THE 00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS
ARE SIMILAR.  COMPARED TO YDAYS 00Z NAM… LATEST RUNS ARE FARTHER
N/NW WITH THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS DURING SAT INTO SUN.

..HURRICANE NORBERT…

THE NAM HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SFC
REFLECTION… WITH THE 00Z NAM TRENDING INCREASINGLY SWWD OF THE
18Z RUN BUT REMAINING NEWD OF THE 12Z/YDAYS 00Z RUNS.  LIKEWISE
THE 18Z NAM WAS A NEWD OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER RUNS WITH THE
ASSOC MID LVL REFLECTION.  DETAILS DIFFER BUT NAM RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF ONE OR MORE WEAK IMPULSES STREAMING
NEWD THRU NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

..SHRTWV CROSSING NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT-MON…

00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS OFFER SIMILAR SOLNS THRU F72 LATE SUN.  AS OF
F60 EARLY SUN THESE RUNS DISPLAY SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLITUDE THAN
YDAYS 00Z NAM.

..FLOW CROSSING NEW ENGLAND FRI-SAT…

THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NWD WITH THE MID
LVL JET AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRI.  THE 00Z NAM SHOWS AN
ABRUPT CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WITH TRAILING ENERGY INITIALLY NEAR
JAMES BAY… BRINGING A CONCENTRATED SHRTWV ACROSS NEW ENG ON SAT
IN CONTRAST TO A VERY SHEARED DEPICTION IN PRIOR RUNS.  THESE
DIFFS ALOFT HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AT THE SFC.

..CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST…

FROM F24 LATE FRI ONWARD THE 00Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE CORE OF THE MID LVL REFLECTION.  ALSO AFTER
F24 THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS DISPLAY A NWD TREND AS THE FEATURE
RETROGRADES ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  RUN TO RUN DIFFS
AT THE SFC ARE BRIEF/MINOR.

..MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML…

RAUSCH
$$

FXUS21 KWNC 101813
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 10 2008

SYNOPSIS: EARLY IN THE ASSESSMENT PERIOD A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IS
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE, PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT, MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST
OF THE WESTERN CONUS ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD OCCURS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA
AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN NEW ENGLAND
AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST STATES, MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES TO THE GREAT
LAKES, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. BY MID-PERIOD THE FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CONUS MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND AND STRETCHES BACK WESTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE REST OF THE CONUS ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THE LONGER RANGES,
A STORMY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE THE
CONUS IS MOSTLY DOMINATED BY A WEST TO EAST FLOW PATTERN.

HAZARDS

RIVER FLOODING FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OCT 13.
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS OCT 13-14.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR COASTAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS OCT 13-14.
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS ON THE RIO GRANDE
NEAR DEL RIO.
FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE NORBERT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS OCT 13.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST OCT 13-14.
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS OCT 13.
HEAVY COASTAL RAINS AND INLAND SNOW FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE OCT 13-17.
SEVERE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN US, SOUTHEAST, NORTHERN
PLAINS, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOME RELIEF LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 13 – WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15: A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD TO A LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CAUSES
FLOODING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BEHIND THE LOW, IN
COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD (IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMANTS
OF HURRICANE NORBERT), BRINGS HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY CAUSE FLOODING
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE RAINFALL ALSO OFFERS SOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO AN AREA OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, THE  NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND WILL GENERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS LEADS TO THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STORMY PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA LEADING TO COASTAL HEAVY RAIN AND INLAND HEAVY
SNOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR DEL RIO AND JOHNSON RANCH DUE TO
SURCHARGE RELEASES FROM LAKE AMISTAD. DROUGHT IS ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 16 – MONDAY OCTOBER 20: TWO COLD FRONTS SWEEP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A
STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE.
FIVE-DAY MEAN FORECASTS INDICATE A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.

FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 – FRIDAY OCTOBER 24: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A RIDGE
IS PROGGED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME
RANGE PRECLUDES THE FORECAST OF SPECIFIC HAZARDS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$

Hi everybody. All has been extremly quiet the past few weeks. We are now looking at a new Invest in the Atlantic. Invest 98 is locaterd about 300 miles south of Puerto Rico. The area is moving towards the NW and some slow development of this area is possible over the next several days. You can click here to get the latest model runs. Because of the close proximity to our area, we will watch this area carefully over the next several days. Conditions are marginally favorable for development. Invest 97 is still 1600 miles out and conditions are becomming unfavorable for this area to develop.

Be sure to visit our new blog. I have changed the blog server due to spam problems.Please bookmark this new page as the old blog URL will no longer work.

ZFPMLB

ZONE FORECASTS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

FLZ041-044-122000-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DE LAND…LEESBURG
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30
PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

$$

FLZ141-122000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DAYTONA BEACH
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

$$

FLZ045-046-144-122000-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ORLANDO…SANFORD…CLERMONT
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

$$

FLZ147-122000-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TITUSVILLE
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50
PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING EAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

$$

FLZ053-122000-
OSCEOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…KISSIMMEE…ST CLOUD
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

$$

FLZ047-054-122000-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MELBOURNE…PALM BAY…VERO BEACH
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BREEZY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING
TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

$$

FLZ058-122000-
OKEECHOBEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OKEECHOBEE
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

$$

FLZ059-064-122000-
ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND
1050 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.THIS AFTERNOON…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST
WINDS 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
BREEZY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.COLUMBUS DAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. EAST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.THURSDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70.
.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.SATURDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

$$

WTNT34 KNHC 130240
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

..TROPICAL STORM IN EASTERN ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO WEAKEN…

AT 1100 PM EDT…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST OR ABOUT 980
MILES…1580 KM…WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

NANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION…16.6 N…38.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WWWW

WTNT44 KNHC 130240
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z HAD BELIEVABLE 35 KT
VECTORS…SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  WITH NO
APPRECIABLE LET UP OF THE SHEAR INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW FAIRLY SOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS…WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH.  IF NANA DOES NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED…IT
PROBABLY WOULD INTERACT MORE STRONGLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
TAKE A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 16.6N  38.8W    35 KT
12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N  40.0W    30 KT
24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N  41.2W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N  42.5W    25 KT…REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     15/0000Z…DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WWWW

WTNT34 KNHC 130831
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANA ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

…NANA REMAINS DISORGANIZED…

AT 500 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015
MILES…1635 KM…WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

NANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.    UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION…
AND NANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION…16.6 N…39.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WGCA62 TJSJ 131034
FFASJU

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

PRZ001>007-011>013-VIZ001-002-132245-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-081014T0200Z/
/00000.0.OT.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF…SAN JUAN…
CAROLINA…FAJARDO…HUMACAO…GUAYAMA…ARROYO…YABUCOA…
SALINAS…COCO…CAGUAS…ARECIBO…VEGA BAJA…DORADO…COAMO…
COROZAL…AIBONITO…VILLALBA…JAYUYA…PONCE…CABO ROJO…LAJAS…
CULEBRA…ESPERANZA…ANNA’S RETREAT…CHARLOTTE AMALIE…
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST…CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST…CRUZ BAY…
CHRISTIANSTED…FREDERIKSTED…FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST…GROVE PLACE
634 AM AST MON OCT 13 2008

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS…INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS…IN PUERTO RICO…CENTRAL INTERIOR…CULEBRA…
  EASTERN INTERIOR…NORTH CENTRAL…NORTHEAST…PONCE AND
  VICINITY…SAN JUAN AND VICINITY…SOUTHEAST…SOUTHWEST AND
  VIEQUES. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS…ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST.
  JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* THROUGH THIS EVENING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE…ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
  ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING…WILL BRING PERIODS OF
  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…
  EASTERN PUERTO RICO…SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND SECTIONS OF THE
  CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM AST THIS
  EVENING. RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE TO
  HEAVY RAINFALL…OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED
  RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 5 AND 1O INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM AST THIS EVENING…WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
  OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE WATCH
  AREA. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
  SECTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…ANY
  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
  FLOODING AND POSSIBLY MUDSLIDES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA…WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA…CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS…
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED… AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS…AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO…LOCAL TV…RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT…ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER…HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION…IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

$$

These are the latest warnings and watches from HomeTownWeather.net.
WTNT35 KNHC 140250
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2008

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS STATIONARY…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT
340 MILES…550 KM…SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY.  A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS…WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…14.6 N…69.4 W.  MOVEMENT…
STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE…1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT35 KNHC 142032
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

…OMAR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH…
…HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED…

AT 5 PM AST…2100 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST…THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES…ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA…AND FRANCE…HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA…ST. KITTS…NEVIS…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…
ST. MAARTEN…ST. MARTIN…AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

AT 5 PM AST…THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT.

AT 5 PM AST…THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES…550 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
120 MILES…195 KM…NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK…OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND OMAR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM
…MAINLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.

OMAR MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS…ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF ALL OF THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE PROLONGED SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…14.0 N…68.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

These are the latest warnings and watches from HomeTownWeather.net.
WTCA82 TJSJ 150105
HLSSJU

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM OMAR INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
905 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

..TROPICAL STORM OMAR NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH…

AT 800 PM AST…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST…OR ABOUT 335 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO…OR 335 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ST CROIX…365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST THOMAS…330 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VIEQUES…AND 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CULEBRA.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY…WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…OMAR WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND OMAR IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…MAINLY
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB…29.00 INCHES.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-160115-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.A.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
905 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…
..HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT…

..NEW INFORMATION…

STORM INFORMATION…POSITION AND TRACK UPDATED.

..AREAS AFFECTED…

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN…
PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

..WATCHES/WARNINGS…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

ALL RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS…VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETE PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY NOON…AS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
PROBLEMS…AS WELL AS LAND AND MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS ACROSS
POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE AREAS SHOULD CONSIDER RELOCATING TO SAFER
AREAS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT.

..STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…

STORM TIDES OF TWO TO FOUR FEET ARE TO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING…WITH WAVE ACTION SUPERIMPOSED UPON THESE
ELEVATED TIDES. NORMALLY TRANQUIL COASTLINES ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF ST CROIX AND THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST COASTS OF ST THOMAS…
CULEBRA…AND VIEQUES ARE LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

..WINDS…

SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING…AND
INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS…AND THEN REACH HURRICANE
FORCE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS ST CROIX…AND LAST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. RESIDENTS OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN SHOULD
PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS JUST UNDER
HURRICANE FORCE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHER WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

..PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS…

FOR ST CROIX…THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
MPH OR GREATER IS 70 PERCENT…AND FOR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER
IS 20 PERCENT.

FOR ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN…THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER IS 50 PERCENT…AND FOR WINDS OF 74
MPH OR GREATER IS 13 PERCENT.

FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES…THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 39 MPH OR GREATER IS 43 PERCENT…AND FOR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER
IS 10 PERCENT.

FOR EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO…THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATER IS 35 PERCENT…AND FOR WINDS OF
74 MPH OR GREATER IS 6 PERCENT.

..INLAND FLOODING…

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO…ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

..TORNADOES…

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
OMAR…ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SPIRAL BANDS…AND ALONG AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF ITS PATH.

..NEXT UPDATE…

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE 11:30 PM.

$$

WWWW

These are the latest warnings and watches from HomeTownWeather.net.
WTNT35 KNHC 152350
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
800 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

..OMAR BECOMES CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE…MOVING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…ST.
BARTHELEMY…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND ANGUILLA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO…AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE
65.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES…130 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX
AND ABOUT 135 MILES…215 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH…28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH…
170 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  ALSO… STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD
INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLAND
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER WAS 971 MB…28.67 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA
PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION…
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION…16.6 N…65.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…971 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

WWWW

These are the latest warnings and watches from HomeTownWeather.net.
WTNT35 KNHC 160306
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

..OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…ST.
BARTHELEMY…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND ANGUILLA.  A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO…AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES…
45 KM…SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 105 MILES…165 KM…
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF OMAR WILL PASS JUST
EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH…
185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS OMAR MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.  ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39
MPH…63 KM/HR…WITH A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH…94 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 967 MB…28.56 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…
VIEQUES…AND CULEBRA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PUERTO RICO.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR.  COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  IN ADDITION…OMAR
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND
SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…17.4 N…64.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…967 MB.

INTERMEDIATES ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM AND 300 AM AST…FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

This weather bulletin was brought to you by Home Town Weather using  InterWARN at www.interwarn.com

These are the latest warnings and watches from HomeTownWeather.net.
WTNT35 KNHC 160655
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  11B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
300 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

..OMAR RACING NORTHEASTWARD…WINDS INCREASED TO 125 MPH….

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN…SABA…ST. EUSTATIUS…ST.
BARTHELEMY…THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND ANGUILLA.

AT 300 AM AST…0700 UTC…THE HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE ISLANDS
OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA…BARBUDA…AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 300 AM AST…0700 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 300 AM AST…0700Z…THE EYE OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH…LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES..90 KM…
NORTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH…32 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF OMAR WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…
205 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS…ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.  ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56
MPH…91 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 959 MB…28.32 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES…WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…
VIEQUES…AND CULEBRA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PUERTO RICO.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR.  COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS…ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  IN ADDITION…OMAR
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND
SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 100 AM AST POSITION…18.5 N…63.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA

WWWW

These are the latest warnings and watches from HomeTownWeather.net.
WTCA82 TJSJ 161027
HLSSJU

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE OMAR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

..CORE OF OMAR RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS…

AT 500 AM AST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES…110 KM…NORTH OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH…41 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH…205 KM/HR…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS…ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS…ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…
FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 70 MPH…113 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DATA WAS 964 MB…28.47 INCHES.

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-PRZ012-013-VIZ001-002-161130-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.HU.W.1015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
CULEBRA-VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
627 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

..HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELED…

..NEW INFORMATION…

HURRICANE WARNING CANCELED…STORM INFORMATION AND LOCATION.

..AREAS AFFECTED…

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN…
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS…PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

..WATCHES/WARNINGS…

NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
VENTURING OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.

MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM
PORT…UNTIL CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

..WINDS…

ANY LEFTOVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS…WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS MORNING.

..INLAND FLOODING…

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES…WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

..NEXT UPDATE…

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR
HURRICANE OMAR.

$$

BCS

WWWW

WTNT35 KNHC 180233
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2008

…OMAR AGAIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM…

AT 1100 PM AST…0300Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OMAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST OR ABOUT
705 MILES…1135 KM…EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1525 MILES…2455
KM…WEST OF THE AZORES.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH…
100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.    OMAR IS MOVING OVER COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES…AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB…29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION…31.5 N…52.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Omar is finally well on his way out to sea away from all land masses. You can view the latest track and model runs here. You can view all other information on the storm HERE.

These are the latest weather advisorites from HomeTownWeatherr.net.
FPUS52 KMLB 220749
ZFPMLB

ZONE FORECASTS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

FLZ041-044-222045-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DE LAND…LEESBURG
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING EAST 15 TO 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ141-222045-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DAYTONA BEACH
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
THURSDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY. HIGHS AROUND
80. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING EAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 60.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ045-046-144-222045-
ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ORLANDO…SANFORD…CLERMONT
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING EAST 15 TO 20 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 60.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ147-222045-
NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TITUSVILLE
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
THURSDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 80. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ053-222045-
OSCEOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…KISSIMMEE…ST CLOUD
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING EAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. CHANCE OF
RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 60.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ047-222045-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MELBOURNE…PALM BAY
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 70. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
THURSDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST
15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ058-222045-
OKEECHOBEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OKEECHOBEE
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
THURSDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS AROUND 60.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

FLZ054-059-064-222045-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…VERO BEACH…FORT PIERCE…HOBE SOUND
349 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

TODAY…PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 70. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
THURSDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY. LOWS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
SATURDAY…CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 40 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SUNDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
MONDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

$$

Hi everybody. The first real cold front of the season will be embarking on East Central Florida this weekend. Temperatures will dip into the 50’s, possibly the lower 50’s on Sunday night. This cool weather will last into next week.

 

The next 2 days will be extremly unsettled with a strong high pressure ridge banding with a low pressure center. This will bring showery weather to our area tonight. Stating tomoorrow, Rain will become heavier and more widespread as the low moves into the Gulf and merges with a well developed storm in the Plains. The s wind flow will generate a classic “overrunning” rain event that is characterized by widespread and steady rainfall. The heaviest rain will occur Friday and Friday night with the chances around 80%.

Saturday, a strong jet coming down from the Plains will help push the rain out of our area and usher in the cold front.

Siunday will be gorgeous with temps barely making 80 and lows in the 50’s. Once we get through the rain, get ready for some great fall weather!

Follow the radar action right here as the rains begin to fall. Tomorrow, I may activate the Digital Doppler loops as the system evolves. I will send a notification with the link when it is actvated.

Hi everybody. The much anticipated rain shield is approaching the area from the south and west as a low pressure center bears down on Central Florida. Rain chances will be near 80% and close to 100% tomorrow. Locally heavy rain with street flooding is poaaible tomorrow (Friday). Saturday looks a bit unsettled as well with rain chances at around 70%. Follow the action on Digital Doppler right here. Watch and warning updates will be broadcast tomorrow, if necessary.

 

Hi everybody. Hope every had a great Halloween! Currently, the moisture content in the atmosphere is on the increase. A low pressure area will drop into the NE Gulf and will produce some large scale lift which will help enhance the moisture. Since cloud cover will limit day time heating, thunder storms are not likely but cannot be ruled out. It looks like the best chance for the rain will be Sunday and that will be enhanced even more if you live from Cape Canaveral north. Follow the radar action here!

Port Saint Lucie, Florida (34953)

Lat: 27.29N, Lon: 80.35W Wx Zone: FLZ059 ICAO Used: KFPR

Current Conditions Updated: 1:53 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2008	Sun & Moon Information
Mostly Cloudy Temp: 75°F Humidity: 69% Wind Speed: E 6 MPH Barometer: 30.18 in. Dewpoint: 64°F Heat Index: 75°F Wind Chill: 75°F	Civil Twilight: 7:07 AM EDT Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent Moon Sunrise: 7:31 AM EDT Sunset: 6:38 PM EDT Civil Twilight: 7:02 PM EDT

Forecast for Port Saint Lucie, Florida: Dated: 1040 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008 7 Day View

REST OF TODAY	TONIGHT	SUNDAY	SUNDAY NIGHT	MONDAY	MONDAY NIGHT
Chance Of Showers	Chance Of Showers	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of Showers	Clouds
Hi: 79°F	Lo: 65°F	Hi: 79°F	Lo: 65°F	Hi: 81°F	Lo: 61°F
Pop: 50%	Pop: 20%	Pop: 50%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 20%

ZoneCast: Dated: 1040 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

Includes the Counties: St. Lucie, Martin Includes the cities: Fort Pierce, Hobe Sound Rest Of Today…Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Tonight…Considerable cloudiness with a slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent. Sunday…Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers through late morning…Then a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Sunday Night…Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms until around midnight…Then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday…Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent. Monday Night…Considerable cloudiness. Lows in the lower 60s. Tuesday…Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 80s. Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wednesday…Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Wednesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Thursday…Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Thursday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Friday…Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

---

 

Vero Beach, Florida (32960)

Lat: 27.64N, Lon: 80.4W Wx Zone: FLZ054 ICAO Used: KVRB

Current Conditions Updated: 1:53 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2008	Sun & Moon Information
Mostly Cloudy Temp: 71°F Humidity: 73% Wind Speed: NE 7 MPH Barometer: 30.18 in. Dewpoint: 62°F Heat Index: 71°F Wind Chill: 71°F	Civil Twilight: 7:08 AM EDT Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent Moon Sunrise: 7:32 AM EDT Sunset: 6:37 PM EDT Civil Twilight: 7:01 PM EDT

Forecast for Vero Beach, Florida: Dated: 1040 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008 7 Day View

REST OF TODAY	TONIGHT	SUNDAY	SUNDAY NIGHT	MONDAY	MONDAY NIGHT
Chance Of Showers	Chance Of Showers	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of Showers	Clouds
Hi: 79°F	Lo: 65°F	Hi: 79°F	Lo: 65°F	Hi: 81°F	Lo: 61°F
Pop: 30%	Pop: 30%	Pop: 50%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 30%

ZoneCast: Dated: 1040 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

Includes the Counties: Southern Brevard, Indian River Includes the cities: Melbourne, Palm Bay, Vero Beach Rest Of Today…Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Tonight…Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Sunday…Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers through late morning…Then a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Sunday Night…Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms until around midnight…Then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday…Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Monday Night…Considerable cloudiness. Lows in the lower 60s. Tuesday…Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wednesday…Partly sunny. Highs around 80. Wednesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Thursday…Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Thursday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Friday…Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

---

 

 

West Palm Beach, Florida (33401)

Lat: 26.71N, Lon: 80.05W Wx Zone: FLZ068 ICAO Used: KPBI

Current Conditions Updated: 1:53 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2008	Sun & Moon Information
Partly Cloudy Temp: 73°F Humidity: 71% Wind Speed: N 6 MPH Barometer: 30.16 in. Dewpoint: 63°F Heat Index: 73°F Wind Chill: 73°F	Civil Twilight: 7:05 AM EDT Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent Moon Sunrise: 7:29 AM EDT Sunset: 6:37 PM EDT Civil Twilight: 7:01 PM EDT

Forecast for West Palm Beach, Florida: Dated: 223 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 815 AM EDT SUN NOV 02 2008 7 Day View

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON	EVENING	TONIGHT	SUNDAY	SUNDAY NIGHT	MONDAY
Chance Of Showers	Chance Of Showers	Chance Of Showers	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of Showers
		Lo: 69°F	Hi: 81°F	Lo: 69°F	Hi: 85°F
		Pop: 30%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 30%	Pop: 20%

ZoneCast: Dated: 223 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 815 AM EDT SUN NOV 02 2008

Includes the cities: Palm Springs, Florida Gardens, Aberdeen, Boca West Rest Of This Afternoon…Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Evening…Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Tonight…Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday…Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers…Then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. Sunday Night…Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening…Then slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Monday…Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Monday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday…Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Wednesday…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Thursday…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Friday…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Saturday…Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s.

---

 

 

Melbourne, Florida (32901)

Lat: 28.08N, Lon: 80.61W Wx Zone: FLZ047 ICAO Used: KMLB

Current Conditions Updated: 1:53 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2008	Sun & Moon Information
Light Rain Temp: 70°F Humidity: 79% Wind Speed: NW 3 MPH Barometer: 30.20 in. Dewpoint: 63°F Heat Index: 70°F Wind Chill: 70°F	Civil Twilight: 7:09 AM EDT Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent Moon Sunrise: 7:33 AM EDT Sunset: 6:38 PM EDT Civil Twilight: 7:02 PM EDT

Forecast for Melbourne, Florida: Dated: 1040 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008 7 Day View

REST OF TODAY	TONIGHT	SUNDAY	SUNDAY NIGHT	MONDAY	MONDAY NIGHT
Chance Of Showers	Chance Of Showers	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of T-Storm	Chance Of Showers	Clouds
Hi: 79°F	Lo: 65°F	Hi: 79°F	Lo: 65°F	Hi: 81°F	Lo: 61°F
Pop: 30%	Pop: 30%	Pop: 50%	Pop: 40%	Pop: 30%

ZoneCast: Dated: 1040 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008    Expires: 500 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

Includes the Counties: Southern Brevard, Indian River Includes the cities: Melbourne, Palm Bay, Vero Beach Rest Of Today…Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Tonight…Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Sunday…Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers through late morning…Then a chance of showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Sunday Night…Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms until around midnight…Then a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph becoming north 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent. Monday…Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent. Monday Night…Considerable cloudiness. Lows in the lower 60s. Tuesday…Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s. Tuesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wednesday…Partly sunny. Highs around 80. Wednesday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Thursday…Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Thursday Night…Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Friday…Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

Hi everybody. Just a reminder to “Fall Back” and turn your clocks back 1 hour at 2 AM this morning.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody! I know most everybody is glued to the TV tonight watching the election results. I am now tracking Invest 93. The area has become better organized during the day and bears watching. Most of the models are keeping it south as it except for the very precarious LBAR which is very close to extreme South Florida. Remember, hurricane season lasts until November 30th and hurricanes can form in any month of the year. Thsis system could become a tropical entity over the next couple of days. Nothing to worry about now but it absolutly bears watching. Here is the direct link to the models. They will be updated as needed.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are now tracking TS Paloma. Currently, satellite imagery is showing incresed organization and Paloma is expected to become a hurricane. Paloma is currentlt in an area of very light wind shear and warm oceanic temperatures. Significant strengthening is possible with rapid intensification a possability. Most of the models show Paloma rotating around a low level ridge which should kick the system NE across Cuba and the Bahamas, possibly as a major hurricane. Interests in this region should moniter the storm carefully. You can get the latest tracks and models at Hurricane Central. I will have a full update this afternoon.

…Florida hazardous weather awareness week…
…Monday February 2 is lightning awareness day…

Lightning is one of natures deadliest and most unpredictable
phenomena. The central Florida Peninsula is the most active
lightning Hot-Spot in North America with thunderstorms occurring
almost daily from late may through early October. We cannot control
them, so it is critical to recognize the threat lightning poses to
life and health.

Whether a thunderstorm produces 10 bolts or 10,000 bolts, they all
are potential killers. A distant, developing, or weak thunderstorm
may not appear threatening, but statistics indicate otherwise.
Studies have discovered that storms with intense lightning tend to
strike fewer people than storms that only produce occasional
lightning. This ironic fact suggests that people recognize the
lightning threat associated with strong storms but fail to perceive
that very same threat with weaker ones.

One characteristic that makes lightning so dangerous is its
extensive range. Of all thunderstorm threats, only lightning has
the ability to strike outside the storm periphery, making it the
first storm hazard to arrive and the last to leave. Lightning can
strike more than 10 miles from its parent storm. By contrast, most
thunder is inaudible beyond 10 miles. Therefore, if you can hear
thunder, you are already at risk.

The other characteristics that makes lightning so dangerous are its
tremendous power and speed. The average Bolt carries 30 thousand
amps of electric charge, 100 million volts of electric potential,
and generates a temperature that can exceed 50 thousand degrees
fahrenheit.   Furthermore, all this energy is concentrated in a
channel with a diameter no larger than a U.S. Quarter. This energy
density is unmatched in the human world outside of a nuclear reactor
and travels at speeds that approach four thousand miles per second.

The instantaneous nature of a lightning strike means you cannot
avoid a strike the same way you would a tornado or hurricane.
Outrunning a lightning Bolt is not an option. Few lightning
survivors remember even being struck, let alone remember seeing the
Bolt that struck them.

Lightning is most dangerous near the edge of a storm because people
often associate its threat with peak rainfall. However, studies
have shown the majority of lightning victims are not struck during
the height of the storm as one might expect. Instead, they are
struck before the storm reaches its peak because people do not seek
shelters quickly enough, or shortly after the rain has ended because
people leave shelters too soon.

Absolutely no place outdoors is safe from lightning. In Florida,
most people who have been struck were near a body of water.
Therefore, people visiting the beach or involved in any water
activities need to pay particular attention to local weather
conditions. Other vulnerable locations include open areas such as
athletic fields, playgrounds, or Golf courses.

No one can predict where lightning will strike, but forecasters can
predict the conditions that will produce lightning. While the
National Weather Service does not issue lightning warnings, products
such as the graphical hazardous weather outlook describe in detail
the daily lightning threat on a scale ranging from none to extreme.

In addition, short term weather forecasts inform when and where
storms are forming or are expected to form, while special weather
statements are issued to warn when a storm is producing or expected
to produce excessive lightning. These products are available to the
general public through the internet and the NOAA Weather Radio and
should play a critical role in determining whether outdoor activities
should be delayed or cancelled.

If outdoor activities are planned, get continuous weather updates if
thunderstorms are predicted. Be prepared to take shelter inside an
enclosed building if a thunderstorm approaches or forms nearby.
People should head inside when darkening clouds appear, even if
thunder has not been detected.

If thunder is detected, halt outdoor activities immediately and move
indoors. Remain indoors until 30 minutes after the last clap of
thunder is heard. Picnic pavilions, baseball dugouts, beach shacks,
and areas near isolated trees should be avoided. If an enclosed
building is not available, then an enclosed metal vehicle is the next
best alternative. Convertible automobiles and Golf carts do not
provide lightning protection.

For further lightning information, hazardous weather outlooks
including the daily lightning threat across east central Florida, as
well as special weather statements, please visit the National
Weather Service in Melbourne website at
http://www.Weather.Gov/Melbourne.

Hi everybody! As we begin to leave behind our Florida Winter, the Spring storm season will soon be upon us. Atmospheric conditions have been in a La Nina state for most of the winter. This is why we have been having such cool temperatures and dry weather conditions. La Nina is a cooling of the tropical Pacific ocean waters. This cooling is gradually dissipating and most models are pointing to this condition to end by Spring. ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to be in place during our summer storm season. The exact time of the transition is not fully known but should be completed by July. What this could mean for us is a continuation of very dry and below normal temps for the next couple of months. After the transition to neutral, our weather will become more seasonal with more precipitation and a better chance for hurricane development. As you know, neutral conditions arte never good during the peak storm season. There are many other factors that must come into play also besides the ENSO. These include but are not limited to location of High pressure ridges, water temperatures and SAL (the amount of African dust in the atmosphere). SAL often will help impede the formation of hurricanes because the sand in the atmosphere tends to dry out the air and this helps keep storms at bay.

We will have to watch these developments as they unfold over the next couple of months.

Please remember to “Spring Ahead” this Sunday. Daylight savings time again starts this weekend. Be sure to set your clocks an hour ahead before retireing Saturday night.

The next newsletter will be published next month or sooner if conditions warrant.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information Hi everybody. The La Nina conditions that have been affecting our weather all winter are still intact. There are no immediate signs of an abatement of these conditions at least through the spring season. The oceanic temperatures throughout most of the tropical Pacific are still in the negative, meaning below normal. This createws the dry conditions that we have been seeing all winter. It is also responsible for the below normal temperatures. La Nina conditions are supressing convection along the Equater and Dateline regions of the tropics. During the summer, the La Nina is expected to weaken, but still remain to a small degree. The long range forecast calls for an increased liklyhood foe heavy precipitation in the souther part of Florida. Rightt now, the SST’s in the region are running below normal. At least one hurricane expert from Accu Weather has indicated a trend towards less hurricane activity along the US coast thgis year. In fact, the chances have been cut almost in half. Bear in mind that this is not a prdiction for overall tropical activity, but rather a prediction for activity that may impact the US mainland. All these factors could spell some good news for us but……remember, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season. Even with the possability of getting by a season with no major impacts, it is important to note that being prepared is a major player in our post storm survival. Especially with the tough economic times, preperation is going to be more inmportant then ever. This year, many Floridians will not have the resources to be able to do evacuations at the drop of every scare. If more of us are going to stay, we must have all the supplies that may be necessary for survival after a storm. my advice is to staert very early and get your hurricane supplies a little at a time. This will ease the burden of having a huge expense when an emergency arrives at our doorstep. I know we still have 3 months to go before the Official start of the 2009 season but I am gioing to start early this year in keeping you informed of the latest conditions in the Pacific and off our coast that could determine the actual severity of the upcoming tropical season. I will post new information on the climatic conditions as they are received and posted. For all the local weather, remember that we have a huge suite of radar images and loops plus forecasts and all kinds of cool stuff to explore! See you next time! Joe This message has been generated from the office of HomeTownWeather.net. For the latest weather and tropical information, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/ . For the latest LIVE webcams, visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Live_Cam_Views.html .For the latest in tropical updates visit http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html . Latest LIVE Ft. Pierce Weather Radio: http://joesdiscoweathercentral.com/NOAA_Weather_Radio.html . Please visit our new garden site called HomeTownGarden.com. http://hometowngarden.com/ Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and should not be used to make life and death decisions. Information may be outdated by the time it is read. Always tune to local sources when impending danger exists.

    Hi everybody. Today marks the beginning of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.NOAA, along with other experts are still suggesting a normal season with no elevated hurricane activity. Right now, we are in a neutral state but this could start to emerge a an El Nino later in the summer. As you know, El Nino tends to create upper level winds that blow the tops off of developing stoms thus helping to hinder their development. But, bear in mind that it only takes one storm to make it a bad year. Even with a good forecast, planning and preparing are still imperitive. Now is the time to get ready. You can print a free hurricane supply list right here. 

        Updates will be issued by Hurricane Central as often as necessary. Whwn things are quiet, we try to keep your inbox from filling up too much. You can obtain a FREE tracking map with the current edition of your Hometown News. If you are not a FREE subscriber, you can do so HERE.

        You can obtain the latest and most up to date Tropical Outlooks right here. These outlooks are updated on a regular basis. This is a great page to put in your hurricane bookmark section. For the latest hurricane information in full detail, be sure to visit us at Hurricane Central.

        Together, we will get through either a quiet season or a busy season. We will provide all the information you need to stay safe. I am looking forward to serving our community for the 10th consecutive year. This year marks the 10th anniversary of Home Town Weather. Please let us serve your friends and neighbors. If you would like to ad anybody to the list, please drop me a line from our form submission page.

        Thank you all for your support and we are looking forward to another year of tracking!

Heat advisory now in effect from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening,
The heat advisory is now in effect from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this evening.
Precautionary/preparedness actions,
A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives, neighbors and pets. If possible, conduct any outdoor activities early in the morning or late in the evening when temperatures are cooler.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Here at mid-day are some local temperatures throughout the region… Traditions is currently at 100.3 degrees, Floresta Drive area of PSL is now at 99.0 degrees, Stuart is a seabreeze cooled 91 degrees, Torino Drive area of PSL is at 100.7, River Park area of PSL is now at 98 degrees, Vero Beach is now 99 degrees, It is 99 in Indiantown, Jensen Beach is reporting in at 98 degrees, Okeechobee City is at 97 degrees, Palm City near the marina is 97.5, Downtown Fi Pierce is now at 98 degrees and it is 97 in Jupiter Farms. At the weather station , it is now an extremly hot 102.2 degrees.

As you can seev the temperature varies by area but almost everybody is seeing temps at 98 or above into the 100 degree area. The temps are still rising and will not peak till around 3 or 3:30.

Hi everybody. Satellite images indicate that the system has gotten a little less organized this morning. In addition, the models are indicating a less intense storm after it emerges into the Gulf later today. The models, however, are in a little more agreement as to where the storm may go if it develops.You can see by the graphics that more of the models are in agreement that the system may move across tthe state in a fashion similar to Wilma. There are still some models that show the system moving more towards the north. http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html . We will continue to watch this system for you throughout the weekend and I will forward any changes that occur.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. June has come and gone with little fanfare in the tropical category. This is certainly great news, especially with the troubled economy. If all goes as planned, we should enjoy a relativly quiet season. El Nino is already beginning to have a small influence on our weather by creating strong windshear in the Atlantic spawning grounds. This is helping to keep the tops of potential tropical systems from developing. In addition, we have a large Bermuda High centered right in the central Atlantic. This high pressure is steering any potential problems to our South. In addition, there is a large area of SAL (Dessert Sand) in the atmosphere in the western Atlantic. All these things combined are making it a hostile enviroment for tropical development. I expect July to be reasonably quiet as well. As August approaches, we will have to see what happens.

This year more then ever, it will important to remain vigilant and prepared. With the economy as it is and the credit card companies abusive behavier, many people will not have the usual resources needed for a lenghty evacuation ritual. I believe that many people that chose to evacuate in the past will remain at home. This makes it even more important to have your hurricane kit filled and ready. Now is a good time to start stocking up on supplies since there are no storms on the immediate horizon. Buy a few items each week with your regular shopping. Start stocking up extra canned goods and non-perishables. Look foe sales on batteries and stock up to save money. in addition, begin making your plans with your family in case a storm decides to invade our area. Be sure to check your Insurance policies to be sure everything is in order.

As you can see, with some basic preperations, the pain of trying to get ready for an emergency will be greatly reduced. Also remember that hurricanes are not the only threat during the summer months. Severe thunderstorms and tornados can also cause damage and create extended power outages. If you are prepared for a hurricane, a power outage from a thunderstorm will only be a minor inconvenience!

I will have updates on the tropics as necessary but right now all is quiet with very little fanfare.

  Hurricane Central  

  HomeTownWeather                                                                                                                         Joe

This is a new product that I will share when it is issued. This product will give basic information prior to and during a tropical system event. You will see this exclusivly through the e mail group.

WTNT02 KNGU 131900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131900Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 23.3W TO 12.9N 30.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 23.3W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 24 TO 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
SYSTEM ARE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER WINDS ARE DECREASING
WEST OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141900Z.//

Hi everybody. This morning we are looking at the remnsts of TD 2. Convection with this system has again started to flare up and there is a 30 to 50% chance that this sytem will again regenerate itself. This system poses a MEDIUM risk.

There is a tropical disturbance right off the Florida coast that we are watching. THe chances of this developing are LOW or less then 30%.

In addition, we are watching Atlantic Invest 90. This system poses the greatest threat especially to the Windward Islands. This area of the world needs to watch this system closely. The chances of development of this area is HIGH or greter then 50%. 90L could become a storm later today or tomorrow. Residents of the Windward Islands should watch this system carefully. The good news is that 90 will be fighting much of the same shear as TD 2 and this could help to put a damper on the intensity. We are still hoping that El Nino remains our saving grace this 2009 hurricane season.

latest models on Invest 90 http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html .

hi everybody. We are carefully watching Invest 90 as it churns through the far Eastern Atlantic. Although it has gained some in organization, it is still struggling due to the wind shear. In addition, the remnants of TD2 are also having a very difficult time getting going although it is trying hard. I am starting to think that these storms just dont like the name Ana.

We will continue to watch these systems carefully. If you live in the Windward Islands, I would most certainly keep an eye on these systems. If you live in Florida or the Gulf Coast, I would definitly be sure your hurricane plans are at least in place.  If you are planning a vacation for the Caribbean, I would check the weather before departing. 

I will keep you updated as the scenerio develops over the next week. You can view the latest model runs at this link http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html . I will have a new update in the AM.

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. The recon mission has found that TD 2 is indeed regenerating and is very near Td ststus. They are holding off on issuing the advisory until the AM. By then we should again have TD 2 or Ana. Conditions are marginally favorable for development and the models take the system very close or over some portion of Florida. Just west of TD 2, the upper level winds relax a bit and will probably allow for a bit more development. This area has a HIGH chance or >50% shot at developing. Here are the new model tracks for TD 2 (regenerated) http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html 

Invest 90 is also expected to be a TD or TS in a day or so. The track for this system is farther south then TD2 so it is too early to tell if this will be a threat to us. It appears to be a very high threat to the islands, however. This area also has a HIGH chance or >50% chance of developing. Here are the model Tracks for Invest storm 90 http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html

There are also 2 areas of slight concern that are near Florida. A disturbance just off the Bahamas has an area that has become more concentrated over the past 24 hours. This area has a low chance or less then 30% shot at developing. There is also an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico that is producing showers and thunderstorms. This area has a low chance or less then 30% chance of development.

We will have a full update on all the activity in the AM.

Hi everybody. We now are looking down the barrell at Tropical Storm Ana. Ana is riding under a sub tropical ridge thst is getting stronger and holding the cyclone on a more southerly track. This track is preventing the recurve that was originally expected from taking place. Current models are in good agreement and the confidence in the track is quite high. With that said, you should be doing your preliminary hurricane preps this weekend.

The intensity forecast remains a problem. We do know that conditions appear to be more conductive for intensification then previously thought. After several Recon runs last night, they found that the shear will be light for a good part of the forecast track. Several models are showing a cat 2 hurricane at the end of the forecast period just to our east. At least one model shows the system dissipating. The official forecast is a mix of the two and shows a 60 knot tropical storm at our doorstep in 5 days. Please note that intensity forecasts are often way off. The important thing to consider is that we will most likely be experiencing a tropical system late next week in some shape or form.

Please note in the following link the new track and model forecast http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

To see all products for this storm visit us here http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. Ana is still racing west with no signs of getting stronger. Tropical storm watches are now up for the Windward Islands. Ana continues to struggle for her life and is just not getting her act together as expected. She is still riding under a strong high pressure ridge that is helping to steer her on a west course. Because of her weakness, she is not making as much poleward progress as originally forecast. In fact, the global models have again shifted south and the forecast track has also shifted in response to the model changes. Although some models are calling for strengthening, others are calling for Ana not to make it across at all. Even if she does and follows the forecast track, she will most likely be killed by the mountains of Hispanolia and Cuba. This is a very hostile track for a cyclone. I feel a bit of relief as far as we are concerned in Central Florida but South Florida and the Keys need to watch carefully as she moves west. Remember, we are still in the cone so vigilance is a must.

 

Tropical storm Bill is gradually becomming a force to reacon with. The system still lacks an inner core and deep convection near the center. Bill is forecast to be a hurricane in a few days and gain much more strength thereafter. Models are consistent on a west movement followed by a west northwest turn and then more to the northwest thereafter. It is still too early to prdict if or when Bill will impact the US. Since Bill will be a major hurricane, he will have to be watched carefully. The model trend give us a shot at biting the bullet if the northward model trends continue. If the system is weaker then expected, there may be more of a wesward component that might create more problems for us. Right now I am looking optimistically at the models and data and hoping for the best.

Tropical Storm Ana Models and Track   http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model1.html

Tropical Storm Bill Models and Track http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Model2.html

Click Here to visit Hurricane Central with all other Tropical Products http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

Hi everybody. I am going to keep this update fairly brief. We are looking as good as we can considering what could of been. El Nino is indeed doing his job! Ana is now downgraede to a tropical depression and looks extremly ragged and weak. Bill, on the other hand, is looking plenty healthy but thanks to a trough in the NE, he will find a nice break in the ridge and because of his size and strength, he will take the opportunity and move well east of us. Excellent news after a heartponding couple of days. The models are in excellent agreement on this motion.

Claudette is moving inland over N Florida however, we may get some residual rain from the back feeder bands later in the week.

For us at least, I am lowering the risk to medium.

For the latest newly released models and Tropical info, go here…  http://www.joesdiscoweathercentral.com/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html

 

Latest Ida Forecast Track

Hi everybody. Ida is now again a tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Western Cuba and the Yucatan. Global models are in good agreement that Ida will move north into the Gulf and some restrengthening is likely. Even though the Gulf waters are extremly warm, it should be noted that about a 20 knot shear will prevail. This will help to curtail any major strengthening. In the latter part of the forecast, Ida will begin a process of turning to an extratropical storm. Almost all global models show the cyclone drifting south at this time.The new forecast track and intensity forecast reflect this interaction with the shear and the trough and is in good agreement with the models. Although we are in the cone, the exact extent of a threat, if any, is not yet clear. Please moniter this situation carefully over the next few days. You can always get the latest tracks and text advisories at Hurricane Central or Home Town Weather.